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Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
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Kittonhead Offline
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Exclamation Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
With all of the FCS schools moving up to FBS there is going to be a noticeable power shift away from the scholarship FCS leagues.

2010
BCS (66 schools; B1G, SEC, ACC, PAC, B12, BE, ND)
Non-AQ (54 schools; MWC, CUSA, WAC, MAC, SBC, Army, Navy)
FCS Full Scholarship (84 schools)
FCS Parital/Non Scholly (41 schools; NEC, IVY, PL, Pioneer, Big S)

2014
P5 (65 schools; B1G, SEC, ACC, PAC, B12, ND)
Non-AQ (64 schools; MWC, CUSA, AAC, MAC, SBC, Army, BYU)
FCS Full Scholarship (85 schools)
FCS Parital/Non Scholly (40 schools; NEC, IVY, PL, Pioneer, Big S)

For the first time, the FBS schools out number the FCS. While the FCS full scholarship leagues managed to backfill 9 programs made their way to the FBS ranks.

Its not just that the FBS added 9 top tier FCS programs its also that by moving from 63 to 85 scholarships an additional 198 scholarships (22 x 9) were sucked up by FBS. That is another 2 scholarships per team right there.

The remaining FCS programs will have to fight over less available talent. There will be far fewer FBS upsets and FCS teams finishing in the Top 100 of the Sagarin ratings in the future...
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2013 11:10 AM by Kittonhead.)
06-07-2013 11:47 PM
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BirdstheWord Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
What school lost its automatic BCS game?
06-08-2013 08:32 AM
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goofus Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
a lot of odd things about this. why start in 2011and not 2010? why not use 2015 as the last year?
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2013 08:59 AM by goofus.)
06-08-2013 08:56 AM
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Shannon Panther Offline
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Re: RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 08:32 AM)BirdstheWord Wrote:  What school lost its automatic BCS game?

Three Big East teams are on the outside looking in come 2014, UConn, Cincinnati, and South Florida. In 2011 Utah and TCU were in the Mountain West. Those two have moved up to the Pac12 and BIX respectively. So three lost and two gained for a net loss of 1.

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06-08-2013 09:23 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
Louis Kitton has not been banned from the college sports and conference realignment board and is a respected poster here, and I do not know about any of the other boards. Kittonhead is a different poster.

Since you made this an issue (a lousy way of trying to deal with what you only suspected and had no proof of) in the thread I will issue a general caution. If in the future any of you suspect that a previously banned user is operating under a different name then Private Message a moderator for that board. We will check the IP addresses to ascertain if it is indeed the case and handle these matters without interrupting the thread and disparaging the reputation of innocent posters which in this case both you have referenced in posts are.
06-08-2013 09:54 AM
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BirdstheWord Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 09:23 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  
(06-08-2013 08:32 AM)BirdstheWord Wrote:  What school lost its automatic BCS game?

Three Big East teams are on the outside looking in come 2014, UConn, Cincinnati, and South Florida. In 2011 Utah and TCU were in the Mountain West. Those two have moved up to the Pac12 and BIX respectively. So three lost and two gained for a net loss of 1.

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06-08-2013 10:36 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 08:56 AM)goofus Wrote:  a lot of odd things about this. why start in 2011and not 2010? why not use 2015 as the last year?

Actually the data is from 2010.

I could use 2015 as the last year. Would that assume another school heading to the SBC and MAC to round out numbers? I have Charlotte and a 14 team CUSA factored into the numbers.
06-08-2013 11:13 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
My theory is because of the shift in schools and scholarships there will be less FCS schools rating above FBS in the Sagarin ratings moving forward.

2010 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (6)
Top 100 (10)
Top 120 (22)

2011 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (4)
Top 100 (6)
Top 120 (17)

2012 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (4)
Top 100 (12)
Top 124 (22)-USA, UMASS, UTSA, TXST

Now 3 of the schools from the FCS in the top 124 (ODU, App State and GaSo) will be joining the ranks of FBS by 2014. They will add to the strength of their new conference and hurt the power ratings of their former FCS conferences greatly.

You're always going to have situations where a dominant FCS program like North Dakota State can bring up the Sagarins of an entire conference by going undefeated. If the Sun Belt added NDSU not only would they be adding a solid program but also NDSU would take another 22 scholarships away from the Dakota schools, plus preferred walk ons.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2013 11:50 AM by Kittonhead.)
06-08-2013 11:48 AM
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CPslograd Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 11:48 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  My theory is because of the shift in schools and scholarships there will be less FCS schools rating above FBS in the Sagarin ratings moving forward.

2010 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (6)
Top 100 (10)
Top 120 (22)

2011 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (4)
Top 100 (6)
Top 120 (17)

2012 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (4)
Top 100 (12)
Top 124 (22)-USA, UMASS, UTSA, TXST

Now 3 of the schools from the FCS in the top 124 (ODU, App State and GaSo) will be joining the ranks of FBS by 2014. They will add to the strength of their new conference and hurt the power ratings of their former FCS conferences greatly.

You're always going to have situations where a dominant FCS program like North Dakota State can bring up the Sagarins of an entire conference by going undefeated. If the Sun Belt added NDSU not only would they be adding a solid program but also NDSU would take another 22 scholarships away from the Dakota schools, plus preferred walk ons.

Yah, maybe. On the other hand FBS has been further diluted and the demarcation between the two classifications has been further blurred. The top of the BSC has been competitive with the bottom of FBS for quite a while now. I don't see that changing, it's not like Cal Poly will now be losing recruits to TxSt, App St, or ODU that they were getting before. They were never recruiting the same kids anyway.

The facts that so many CA football programs ended a decade or two ago and juco football isn't as big a deal has helped Poly, Sac, and Davis (and the rest of the Big Sky) far more than a few eastern schools moving up to FBS is going to impact the teams.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2013 12:07 PM by CPslograd.)
06-08-2013 12:04 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
Another thing to look at is the collapse of FBS from 11 conferences to 10 and how that is going to affect computer ratings.

2012 Sagarin Ratings by FBS Conference
SEC (81.75)
B12 (79.38)
PAC (75.58)
B1G (75.05)
ACC (71.92)
BE (71.87)
WAC (64.82)

SBC (62.95)
CUSA (62.64)
MAC (62.37)
MWC (61.82)

For next season two middle tier FBS conferences will no longer exist in the Big East and WAC. Traditionally the #6-#7 conferences have averaged around 72-68 in the Sagarin ratings.

Somebody is going to have to pick up the slack and it will probably be the AAC based on the strength of the programs they have coming in. I wouldn't assume the ACC is going to be much stronger either with Syracuse and Pitt as they've floundered for a lot of years now.

Its hard to believe but the MWC was actually the weakest conference last year. Unless Utah State and SJSU continue to put up banner seasons its difficult seeing this league as stronger than the AAC.
06-08-2013 12:09 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 12:09 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Its hard to believe but the MWC was actually the weakest conference last year. Unless Utah State and SJSU continue to put up banner seasons its difficult seeing this league as stronger than the AAC.
The Sagarin conference rankings uses centrally weighted averages ~ the weight of the top and bottom school is 1, and the weight goes up by one as you go toward the middle from both ends. So the MWC rating seems to follow from the conference being top-heavy.
06-08-2013 03:06 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 12:04 PM)CPslograd Wrote:  Yah, maybe. On the other hand FBS has been further diluted and the demarcation between the two classifications has been further blurred. The top of the BSC has been competitive with the bottom of FBS for quite a while now. I don't see that changing, it's not like Cal Poly will now be losing recruits to TxSt, App St, or ODU that they were getting before. They were never recruiting the same kids anyway.

The facts that so many CA football programs ended a decade or two ago and juco football isn't as big a deal has helped Poly, Sac, and Davis (and the rest of the Big Sky) far more than a few eastern schools moving up to FBS is going to impact the teams.

Good point that the impact is going to be felt out East and maybe its already starting to be felt with the Big Sky and MVC dominating.

Going back in time could be a good indicator of what the impact could be in the future...

1998 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (4)
Top 100 (10)
Top 112 (16)

1999 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (2)
Top 100 (9)
Top 114 (14)

2000 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (5)
Top 100 (14)
Top 115 (19)

2001 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (2)
Top 100 (11)
Top 117 (18)

2002 FCS Sagarin Busters
Top 80 (5)
Top 100 (9)
Top 117 (18)

From looks of the numbers historically, FCS programs have a pretty consistent 15-18% impact on FBS Sagarin ratings. That probably won't change.
06-08-2013 03:28 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Profound Impact of FCS to FBS migration
(06-08-2013 03:06 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(06-08-2013 12:09 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Its hard to believe but the MWC was actually the weakest conference last year. Unless Utah State and SJSU continue to put up banner seasons its difficult seeing this league as stronger than the AAC.
The Sagarin conference rankings uses centrally weighted averages ~ the weight of the top and bottom school is 1, and the weight goes up by one as you go toward the middle from both ends. So the MWC rating seems to follow from the conference being top-heavy.

That is true.

My FCS theory seems to have fallen short because of the consistent 15-18% impact they've had on the FBS ratings historically.

How has the historical # of the 6th best Sagarin conference changed over time?

2012 ACC (71.92)-Growth to 124 teams
2011 ACC (71.03)
2010 ACC (74.18)
2009 B1G (74.49)-Growth to 120 teams
2008 B1G (73.49)
2007 B1G (74.17)
2006 Big East (72.84)
2005 SEC (74.92)-Growth to 119 teams
2004 SEC (74.31)
2003 Big East (73.86)
2002 Big East (75.26)
2001 Big East (75.90)-Growth to 117 teams
2000 ACC (73.04)
1999 Big East (73.29)
1998 Big East (74.59)

The high water marks for the 6th position was right after the growth to 117, 119 and 120 teams. The most recent growth does not stand out.

How about the #7 position?

2012 Big East (71.87)
2011 MWC (66.22)
2010 Big East (73.00)
2009 MWC (71.48)
2008 MWC (71.72)
2007 MWC (70.84)
2006 MWC (71.42)
2005 Big East (72.42)
2004 MWC (72.91)
2003 MWC (72.14)
2002 MWC (66.71)
2001 MWC (68.38)
2000 MWC (67.39)
1999 MWC (72.92)
1998 CUSA (67.69)

The 7th conference position has historically been a challenger position with schools ranging between 73.0 and 66.2. An undefeated team with this kind of schedule should be able to get into a 4 team playoff.

8th Conference Position:

2012 WAC (64.82)
2011 CUSA (65.79)-Houston (12-1)
2010 MWC (70.24)-TCU (12-0)
2009 WAC (66.03)-Boise State (13-0)
2008 CUSA (65.75)
2007 WAC (61.72)-Hawaii (12-0)
2006 WAC (64.63)-Boise State (12-0)
2005 MWC (69.58)-TCU (10-1)
2004 Big East (71.56)
2003 MAC (64.68)-Miami Oh (12-1)
2002 CUSA (64.63)
2001 CUSA (63.60)
2000 CUSA (67.30)-TCU (10-1)
1999 CUSA (71.85)
1998 CUSA (67.69)-Tulane (11-0)

There is almost no way that a G5 conference with an undeated or 1 loss team would be playing in a conference rated below #8 because at least 2 conferences are not going to produce a school with that type of record.

Therefore, it will be difficult to deny an undefeated team a spot in the playoff even if that team is from the SBC because the very fact of being undefeated would raise that conferences status significantly.

Secondly it will be tough to deny a 1 loss G5 team a spot in an access bowl. The highest rated champ does have an automatic bid. All the 1 loss teams from P5 conferences will get placed in an CFP bowl. Then all the 2 loss P5 conference teams which in some cases aren't very many.

For the 12th spot it could come down to either a 3 loss P5 team or a 1 loss G5 and I do not see a selection committee willing to take a school over another with 2 more losses, IMO.
06-08-2013 05:45 PM
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