(05-28-2013 03:54 PM)DawgNBama Wrote: (05-27-2013 10:24 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (05-27-2013 04:38 PM)DawgNBama Wrote: (05-24-2013 10:22 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: I'm glad the Belt stopped at 11. Its obvious that only 3 teams wanted to jump now. Jacksonville State, Lamar, and Liberty. None of them were supported by enough of the Belt membership.
JMU may have to fight for a Belt bid in a year's time. Missouri State, UTA, SHSU, NDSU might make a stronger bid. At least those schools appear to be comfortable with a Belt bid.
I disagree with you Tom. I'm thinking JMU & UDel will make a strong push for the AAC, as unbelievable as that may sound. The AAC is a much better institutional fit than the SunBelt.
I can see Missouri State to the SunBelt, maybe SHSU, maybe Jacksonville State or Liberty or Lamar. I don't see NDSU coming because I seriously believe they would hold out for an MWC bid, much like how JMU & UDel would hold out for an AAC bid.
I stand by my post. I don't see JMU or UD getting called up to the AAC from FCS. I don't see JMU or UD making a strong push for anything (it seems as though the powers that be in Harrisonburg and Newark don't really do "strong moves").
The issue with NDSU wouldn't going to be them turning down the Belt. They know that given their geography, if a bid comes, they'd better take it. NDSU's issue is going to be to convince the Belt to extend an invitation.
UD seems to not be particularly interested in a move to FBS. I don't see the MWC looking at NDSU.
As things stand right now...there's one bid left to get out of the rapidly downgrading FCS.
Why do you not see JMU or UD getting called up to the AAC? The AAC is definitely hurting for flagship schools, and UD definitely fits the bill. Take a look at the SunBelt. Is it a destination for flagship schools?? I think not, and I would bet $$ on it. Plus, for JMU, how many SunBelt schools do you see located in the Mid Atlantic area? App State is so close to Tennessee I don't really consider it to be in the Mid Atlantic area, but rather in the Deep South (think SEC territory). If JMU did decide to go to the 'Belt at all it would be as a short-term option, and then they would bolt for the AAC, and the 'Belt would have to begin the process again, so really the 'Belt didn't really get JMU at all. Does Karl Benson really want that??? My answer would be no, unless he gets really desperate. You have to look at the long term not just the short term, Tom in Lazybrook, or the fate of the SunBelt will be just like the fate of the WAC and the SWC. But considering your own school's wanting to jump as well, I can see why you would choose to ignore something like that. Lower my reputation if you want (I don't care), but I stand by what I say regardless.
LOL. I"m not giving you negative rep points. I'm quite familiar with the mid-Atlantic college sports situation (I graduated from George Washington University, where we played in the same conference with state flagships like UMass and URI and with a current AAC member, Temple). What you might not understand is that the term 'state flagship' in the Northeast Corridor isn't the same thing as a state flagship elsewhere, at least from a sports perspective. Markets are large, but efforts to capture them have been quite difficult.
Lets look at JMU, UD, and the AAC. First, lets look at JMU. JMU has a moderately good track record in FCS football and a nice stadium. From an AAC perspective, they're still a regional state school in Virginia (although many of their students come from the DC area). There's not much rivalry between Temple and JMU. Nor is JMU's admittance likely to push the needle much outside of Virginia (and they're not going to deliver the DC market). They're also 2 hours from the nearest commercial airport. They have value, but the media situation is problematic, the travel is as well, and they're not quite a rivalry fit with anyone else in the conference. Lets just ask this question. If you're the AAC, why take JMU if ODU is available? How about comparing ULL to JMU? Arkansas State? MTSU? Southern Miss? UTSA? UNT?
Delaware - Yes they are a state flagship school. And they have good academics and a good FCS track record. But they barely register outside their home state. And their home state is small. Very small. So small in fact that they don't even have their own media market but are an 'oh by the way' on Philadelphia newscasts. There's a reason Delaware never got a bid to join the Atlantic 10 for all sports when they played football in the A-10's football league. UD simply didn't add much to the league. UD, however, does have the potential for a rivalry with Temple (although that hasn't developed in college basketball). I'm not sure Temple wants another FBS program 20 miles away though (they might be too close). The administration is either holding its cards very close to its' vest or really isn't interested in moving to FBS (I think they, like William and Mary, really aren't interested). UD is a great school. But it isn't Uconn (a much bigger school in a much bigger state with a captive media market that got into a much better conference - the old Big East).
Then there is the issue of a fit with what should be the AAC's goals. The AAC may have to fend off the MWC for positioning in the G5. Taking any FCS move up would likely be very counterproductive in that regard. And adding members beyond 12 actually reduces the pot for all the existing members. Every single member of the Belt or CUSA would likely take an AAC bid if offered. I couldn't possibly see a scenario where the AAC looks around and says, 'we're gonna pass over ULL, stAte, Southern Miss, MTSU, WKU, La Tech, Marshall, etc., so we can take UD or JMU (or both)'. Quite frankly, UMass would be a better pick for the AAC than either of those schools.
I think you may be greatly underestimating the difficulty that most schools experience when they move from FCS to FBS. It takes about 5 years for the move up to have a winning record on average.
I think that even for CUSA, it would be a mistake for them to take either of them. Although as a Sun Belt fan, I would be glad if they expanded by taking more FCS teams than raiding us again (again, USA isn't on the call up list and likely won't be for a while). Then again, I think you only take moveups when you have to. The Belt had to take moveups because the G5 structured the payments based upon a 12 team format.
I'm not flacking for South Alabama to get called up. We're not going anywhere anytime soon. Nor am I completely sold on JMU as a Belt member. We need teams and they are viable in comparison to Lamar, Liberty, or Jacksonville State (they don't compare favorably at all to teams that the AAC would be looking at as alternatives to JMU or UD, though). So if JMU were interested, we'd welcome them. Apparenty they are not. So we'll start this all next year and see who is interested in contributing to the Belt. JMU might come up as a candidate again. So might Missouri State, or SHSU. If the Belt ever gets into a situation where there are multiple viable choices, then the desire of the school to play in the Belt for longer than they think it will take for them to get a bid to another conference will become more important.
Finally, I'm not concerned about the Belt going away like the WAC did. There are several schools that the Belt doesn't want but who do want to join. We weren't desperate last year when we didn't take NMSU and Idaho. We aren't desperate this year when we didn't take Jax State, Liberty, or Lamar.
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Sun Belt will make no further additions "at this time"
