(05-14-2013 10:54 AM)MattofNazareth Wrote: http://www.forbes.com/sites/sportsmoney/2011/09/01/big-12-should-snap-up-the-university-of-houston/
'nuff said.
Dosh has her opinions but most of her points can be argued for Cincy, USF, UCF, and Memphis to similar conclusions. UH adds some overall value but it isn't a question of that. It's a question of which addition adds the MOST. Whether UH does that is debatable.
In my opinion Dosh:
a- takes selective ratings data to assume a higher than reasonable typical rating. She simply throws out "Imagine if they could do that (tech game rating) five or six times a season" without any rationale to expect that high water mark to be the norm. It's a good evidence of what is POSSIBLE with a banner year but as any B12 team can tell you "banner year"s aren't frequent or easy to come by.
a2- Without a league network it's debatable how much value it is to have a 1.5 rated game in Houston vs opening a new market and getting a similar showing from another candidate.
b- does not consider the effect of grad/part time/nonresident students or 6 year grad rates on the expected fan/donor/alumni base. That 38k enrollment is only 55% full time undergrads which dampens the projections if we are being blunt. The profiles of the students in the other 45% are not very condusive to becoming diehard fans or future donors.
c- does not even look at budgets as even a partial a way to estimate future ability. This is something that should be looked at. UL, TCU, and others have transformed due to strong financial backing and it's not everything but it's a big puzzle piece that needs to be considered.
d- Uses an erroneous "percent of capacity" to measure attendance strength. I don't care if they fill their stadium if it's small. Give me UCLA (60k+ attendance in a 100k stadium) over Fresno St (much higher % of a 40k venue) any day. UH should be commended for selling out 32k robertson. Whether that is any advantage vs UCF, USF, UC, UConn, or BYU is debatable due to each drawing crowds that would do the same at 32k.
e- She makes a good point on postgrad research (points that also work for UConn and Cincy)
f- She throws reliant out there but competitors for that spot can say the same kind of thing too. USF plays in one, UCF can go to the Citrus Bowl, UC can use the Bengals stadium, etc. UConn is the only one that I don't think has a good backup plan but they are adding additional seats for their Michigan game so it's workable.
g- She points out upside with Houston businesses which is nice but also partially cut down by the Texans and Rockets limiting how much will get directed to UH. Also this works for some of the other candidates.
To say the omissions leave holes in her argument is pretty fair. I am not out to bash UH, I just think it isn't "nuff said" and that her analysis is in my opinion hit or miss. I'd welcome UH as a fan but I am not convinced it's the best move for the league.