THE COUNTDOWN
No. 1: Alabama (SEC)
No. 2: Stanford (Pac-12)
No. 3: Ohio State (Big Ten)
No. 4: Oregon (Pac-12)
No. 5: South Carolina (SEC)
No. 6: Georgia (SEC)
No. 7: Texas A&M (SEC)
No. 8: Florida State (ACC)
No. 9: Boise State (MWC)
No. 10: Clemson (ACC)
No. 11: Nebraska (Big Ten)
No. 12: Texas (Big 12)
No. 13: Notre Dame (Independent/Part-Time ACC)
No. 14: Florida (SEC)
No. 15: Oklahoma (Big 12)
No. 16: Louisville (AAC to ACC in '14)
No. 17: LSU (SEC)
No. 18: Michigan (Big Ten)
No. 19: USC (Pac-12)
No. 20: Oklahoma State (Big 12)
No. 21: NIU (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: I'm not thinking about tomorrow. Why? Because today is just too much fun: Northern Illinois remains the clear and undisputed leader in the MAC for another year, coaching change or no, and is once again a major threat for 12 or 13 wins and an at-large BCS bid. Nothing has changed; if anything, this team might be better than last year's version, the best in program history. I won't go that far, but I will say this: NIU is a special team with more than enough in the tank for another run at perfection. Remind me why this year's team is set for a decline?

I'll play devil's advocate and give you two reasons for negativity: one, the second tier of the depth chart on defense, and two, the youthful makeup of the Huskies' offensive skill players. Backfield depth is a touch reliant on unproven quantities, especially if we discount Keith Harris' freshman production; at receiver in particular, however, NIU will need a few freshmen and sophomores to deliver. On defense, the quality of the starting 11 is tempered somewhat by the inexperienced nature of the reserve corps. Having said that, this will only be an issue until these underclassmen gain experience – which they'll begin to do in late August.

There's Lynch at quarterback. A wonderful offensive line. Speed to burn at receiver, along with some very impressive young talent. The defensive line is loaded with seniors. The linebacker corps has off-the-charts potential. The secondary is the strength of the defense. Special teams are in the Huskies' favor. Barring injury or the unforeseeable, the Huskies are going to win the MAC and make a run at the BCS. My take: NIU goes 10-2 or 11-1 in the regular season, beating at least one Big Ten opponent, and nets another conference championship. Losing one game in the regular season could land NIU another BCS spot, should Louisville and Boise State suffer their own setbacks. It'll be another banner season. Let's talk about 2014 in, you know, 2014.

— Dream season: NIU goes 12-0 during the regular season and nets a win against Ohio in the MAC title game to earn another trip to the BCS.

— Nightmare season: The Huskies lose to Iowa and Purdue in September and to Kent State, Ball State, Toledo and Western Michigan during MAC play.

No. 22: Northwestern (Big Ten)
No. 23: Virginia Tech (ACC)
No. 24: Kansas State (Big 12)
No. 25: Fresno State (MWC)
No. 26: Tulsa (CUSA to AAC in '14)
No. 27: Michigan State (Big Ten)
No. 28: Miami-FL (ACC)
No. 29: Texas Christian (Big 12)
No. 30: UCLA (Pac-12)
No. 31: Wisconsin (Big Ten)
No. 32: Brigham Young (Independent)
No. 33: Baylor (Big 12)
No. 34: Cincinnati (AAC)
No. 35: Georgia Tech (ACC)
No. 36: Oregon State (Pac-12)
No. 37: Penn State (Big Ten)
No. 38: Vanderbilt (SEC)
No. 39: Ohio (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Despite the returning pieces on offense, I don't think this quite as good a team as the one that stormed out of the gate to open last season before crawling to the finish line amid an onslaught of injuries. The issues are the interior of the offensive line, the depth at receiver, the question marks along the defensive line, the new look from the front seven and the kicking game. In a way, however, each of these issues can be addressed by the start of MAC play – seeing that we'll know much about each perceived concern after Ohio takes on teams like Louisville and Marshall in September. Beating either team might be difficult, let alone both, but this is obviously a team with the potential to sew up its issues in fall camp or during non-conference play – and don't sleep on this coaching staff to do just that.

On the other hand, I'd be extremely surprised if Ohio wins less than six games in MAC play. Missing the top three teams from the MAC West helps, of course, but this team's combination of a high-test offense and a potential-laden defense makes it an easy to pick to take home the East Division. Just how good is this offense? NIU is a bit more explosive, but Ohio's backfield combination, elite tackle play and solid top grouping at receiver could make this the most prolific offense in school history. Very few teams can match the Bobcats' reliability at quarterback at running back; fewer still can match this consistency while touting two all-conference offensive tackles. Put simply, the offense is going to roll.

And even if I've hedged my bets with this defense, there's no ignoring the Bobcats' talent and experience in the secondary. Returning cornerbacks like Carrie and Shaw, along with Wells and Fisher, give the Bobcats depth at the position unmatched – or even neared – by any rival in the MAC. It's this secondary that will make Ohio dangerous to every team on this schedule. So what's the bottom line? Anything less than eight wins would be a disappointment. Ten wins is easily in play. Eleven wins remains a possibility. This team has its flaws, true, but Ohio remains the class of the East Division and NIU's biggest threat for the MAC crown.

— Dream season: Ohio loses to Louisville in the opener but runs the rest of the table, ending the year 11-1 and with BCS hopes heading into the MAC title game.

— Nightmare season: This time, the Bobcats can't blame injuries for a 7-5 regular season.

No. 40: Marshall (CUSA)
No. 41: Washington (Pac-12)
No. 42: Central Florida (AAC)
No. 43: Arizona State (Pac-12)
No. 44: Toledo (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: To have a truly successful season – one that finally puts Toledo on the map outside the MAC – the Rockets must beat Northern Illinois in November. For one more year, I think NIU continues to control the MAC. Where does that leave Toledo? Once again, this is a terrific football team that will fly in under the radar, winning eight or nine games in the regular season but finishing in a familiar spot: second in the West Division. To me, this is more a statement about the Huskies' talented corps returning in 2013, the program's first full season under Rod Carey, than an indictment of any flaws on Toledo's behalf. Simply put, the Rockets are a tremendous team with the misfortune of spending the past three seasons in a division with one of the top non-automatically qualifying programs in the country.

This year's team will have its opportunities to shine, however, and not just on a weekday night against the Huskies. In a way, early dates at Florida and Missouri are equally vital: Toledo is starving for a chance to strut its stuff against the best; beating either one of these teams would provide a huge confidence boost heading into MAC play. In fact, winning one of the two games could lead to a 10-win season, something the Rockets haven't achieved since 2001. Possible? Absolutely. But not likely, in my mind: I think Toledo wins eight or nine games during the regular season, dropping this pair on the road and losing to NIU and either Ball State or Bowling Green before heading back into the postseason. The end result should be either an 8-4 or a 9-3 mark during the regular season.

The issue is the defense, obviously. Although the offense is superb – Owens, Reedy, Fluellen, this line – the Rockets' defense has its fair share of concerns, from the lack of experience at linebacker to the shuffling pieces in the secondary. To me, a defense this unproven can't be expected to hold down the fort against the stronger opponents on this schedule. But the good news is that the Rockets have more than enough firepower to handle most opponents, if not enough to battle teams like NIU, Ball State and others and come out one point ahead on the other side. Come 2014, Toledo will be viewed as the best program in the MAC. But the league remains NIU's playground for one more season.

— Dream season: Toledo loses to Florida in the opener but rolls through the rest, ending the regular season at 11-1 and on the verge of a BCS bid.

— Nightmare season: The Rockets lose to the six tough teams on the schedule: Florida, Missouri, Bowling Green, Navy, Ball State and Northern Illinois.

No. 45: North Carolina (ACC)
No. 46: Ball State (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Ball State needs to be taken seriously not just as a MAC West contender – which the Cardinals have been for two years running – but also as a Kent State-like breakthrough team, one that could parlay an easier schedule and two high-profile league dates into a push to double-digit wins and a national ranking. Such a step seems entirely possible: BSU won nine games a year ago, after all, and shows no sign of regression heading into Lembo's third season with the program. In a word, BSU's coaching is fantastic.

And the Cardinals' offense is good enough to score on every team on this schedule. It's the offense that makes Ball State so dangerous – and makes this team so promising. No MAC team can match the Cardinals' options at the skill positions, from Wenning and Edwards in the backfield to Snead, Fakes and Smith on the outside. The line is a concern on paper, true, but I think the situation is far less dire than one must suppose; much is riding on the new starters, but several were prepared for their new roles during the course of last season. I have no doubt that BSU will exceed last year' scoring output (437 points) and challenge for the school's single-season scoring record (489 points in 2008, achieved in 14 games). I'd tell Toledo and Northern Illinois to pay attention, but it'd be a waste of time – the Cardinals already have the MAC's undivided attention.

So why third in the West? I think the Cardinals are fairly even with Toledo, for one, even if both teams are lagging behind NIU. The biggest issue is this defense, which has experienced its fair share of ineffectiveness since 2011 and must rebound with a more consistent, week-by-week performance to take home the division. Here's my take: BSU will win at least eight games and likely nine during the regular season, but unless the defense takes a step forward the Cardinals will not land the wins they need to earn the national recognition this program and its coaching staff deserve. And what if this defense exceeds expectation? Then you're looking at a potential monster. I can't say enough about the work Lembo and his staff have done remaking BSU's place in the MAC's pecking order.

— Dream season: Ball State goes 10-2, losing only to Virginia and Toledo, and takes home the West Division thanks to a late win at Northern Illinois.

— Nightmare season: The Cardinals drop from nine wins back down to 6-6, barely earning a postseason berth and finishing fourth in the West.

No. 47: Mississippi (SEC)
No. 48: San Diego State (MWC)
No. 49: Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)
No. 50: East Carolina (CUSA to AAC in '14)
No. 51: Arizona (Pac-12)
No. 52: BGSU (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Bowling Green continues to climb up the MAC ladder as it adds marks in the win column, building more and more confidence with each passing year and accumulating more and more talent suited for Clawson's schemes and vision for the program. This year's team is very easily one of the top five in the MAC and one of two teams with a viable shot at taking home the East Division – and the Falcons haven't won a divisional crown since 2003, believe it or not. This has much to do with a defense that should remain elite despite losing two all-conference stars, including the league's best interior lineman; this defense will continue to shine despite these departures.

The offense has me concerned, and it's the reason why I think Ohio will retake the East Division despite traveling to Bowling Green in November. Everything – a bowl game, eight or more wins, the East, the MAC – hinges on Schilz's play as a senior. If he puts together a solid-to-strong final season – perhaps one like his 2011 campaign – Bowling Green will be a serious challenger to Northern Illinois for the MAC title. But how secure can Bowling Green feel in the position? That's a major worry, as are the lack of proven depth in the backfield and the slight sense of unease at left and right tackle. While I see enormous potential, I can't pull the trigger on Bowling Green as the unquestioned leader in the MAC East – though again, I can see the draw.

But this is an eight-win team. The Falcons could even squeeze out nine wins with a 2-2 split during non-conference play – with one win from Tulsa, Indiana and Mississippi State – or a win against Toledo, even if the Rockets' seemingly have Bowling Green's number. Nine wins? How about 10 wins? Yes, 10 victories is a slight possibility should the offense rebound. Clawson's process has led to this point: Bowling Green is one of five teams in the MAC with the potential for double-digit wins and the talent and experience to take home the conference title.

— Dream season: Bowling Green loses only twice all season, to Mississippi State and Indiana, and takes home the MAC East and a end-of-year spot in both polls.

— Nightmare season: The Falcons go 1-3 in non-conference play and 4-4 against the MAC, ending the year as one of the bigger under-the-radar disappointments in the FBS.

No. 53: NC State (ACC)
No. 54: Rutgers (AAC to Big Ten in '14)
No. 55: Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
No. 56: Auburn (SEC)
No. 57: West Virginia (Big 12)
No. 58: Missouri (SEC)
No. 59: Utah State (MWC)
No. 60: Navy (Independent to AAC in '15)
No. 61: Utah (Pac-12)
No. 62: Tennessee (SEC)
No. 63: Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
No. 64: Mississippi State (SEC)
No. 65: Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt)
No. 66: Maryland (ACC to Big Ten in '14)
No. 67: Air Force (MWC)
No. 68: Texas Tech (Big 12)
No. 69: Iowa (Big Ten)
No. 70: San Jose State (MWC)
No. 71: Houston (AAC)
No. 72: Wake Forest (ACC)
No. 73: Indiana (Big Ten)
No. 74: NEW YORK (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: This is the time for Buffalo. The pieces are in place. The defense is among the MAC's two or three best. The offense has the tools, talent and experience to move beyond the last three seasons of middling results, even if the Bulls will be reliant on a young quarterback like Licata and a revamped right side of the line. In all, Quinn has bolstered Buffalo's personnel where it counts, along the offensive line and the defensive front seven; the Bulls have enough depth to survive an eight-game MAC schedule – even if one must admit that the Bulls, talent-wise, don't quite match up with the league's elite upper crust.

One step at a time. After slowly building to this point over Quinn's first three seasons, Buffalo shouldn't expect a burst to eight or nine wins. Instead, let's take it a step at a time: Buffalo should win six or seven games during the regular season and return to the postseason after a five-year absence, building a bridge to continued success over the duration of Quinn's new contract. So how do the Bulls get to six wins? By harassing quarterbacks, forcing turnovers and punching back between the tackles on defense. Offensively, the Bulls need to be smooth and patient with Licata, balancing out his bouts with youthful inconsistency with a powerful running game. It's a simple formula that should yield solid results. The Bulls should expect six wins and bowl eligibility. Now that's a change.

— Dream season: Buffalo goes 2-2 in non-conference and 6-2 in the MAC, taking home the East Division.

— Nightmare season: The Bulls slide back to 3-9. That would be a disappointment.

No. 75: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt to CUSA in '14)
No. 76: Nevada (MWC)
No. 77: Minnesota (Big Ten)
No. 78: Virginia (ACC)
No. 79: Middle Tennessee State (CUSA)
No. 80: South Florida (AAC)
No. 81: Syracuse (ACC)
No. 82: Southern Mississippi (CUSA)
No. 83: Arkansas (SEC)
No. 84: Pittsburgh (ACC)
No. 85: Kent State (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Kent State's going to take a slide after last season's amazing finish, with the level of decline contingent on several factors: how KSU reacts to the coaching change; what sort of impact Haynes can have on this defense; whether the running game will remain potent with Archer seeing more time in the slot; whether the Flashes' can get more from the quarterback position; and whether the ball will continue to bounce the team's way in 2013. The latter, the least tangible of the bunch, may have the heaviest impact on Kent's final record. Can KSU catch another round of breaks under the new staff?

In my opinion, Kent will win anywhere from four to eight games. That the team has so many questions still unanswered is to blame for the wide range: KSU could be again be a MAC contender should it land the same level of production from several key spots – several key spots breaking in new starters, especially on defense and the offensive line; KSU could also slide down to four wins should it fail to recapture its 2012 form against a far more imposing schedule.

The swing games will decide the Flashes' season: Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Buffalo and Miami (Ohio). I'm penciling this team in for losses to LSU, Penn State, NIU, Ball State and Ohio – because despite last season, those opponents are more solidly built than KSU. I also think the Flashes win games against Liberty, South Alabama and Akron, meaning the above quartet dictates whether KSU again reaches the postseason or falls shy of six wins. I'm a little hesitant to lean in either direction, though I think it's more likely that KSU tops out at five wins than gets to eight victories and one of the top two spots in the East Division.

— Dream season: Eleven wins? Oh, that's easy. The Flashes take on a difficult schedule and come out at 11-1, again taking home the East Division.

— Nightmare season: Kent slides back into familiar territory: 4-8, 2-6 in the MAC.

No. 86: Duke (ACC)
No. 87: Iowa State (Big 12)
No. 88: Temple (AAC)
No. 89: Purdue (Big Ten)
No. 90: Wyoming (MWC)
No. 91: UAB (CUSA)
No. 92: UConn (AAC)
No. 93: Washington State (Pac-12)
No. 94: Rice (CUSA)
No. 95: California (Pac-12)
No. 96: Kansas (Big 12)
No. 97: Troy (Sun Belt)
No. 98: WMU (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Western Michigan will be exciting, at least. How could any team coached by a ball of fire not be fun to watch? This where the new staff will make the biggest immediate impact: Fleck will ensure that the days of watching stale and listless football are long, long gone, and that's a huge first step for a program that slowed down precipitously over Cubit's final three seasons. It's a start – but it's not enough.

It's hard not to pay attention to almost unimaginable work Fleck and his staff have put forth on the recruiting trail, inking – or landing verbal commitments from – some ready-for-the-MAC prospects. The roster will undergo some substantial changes in the next 12 months as Fleck continues to bring and develop the sort of talent WMU needs to move out of the background and challenge Northern Illinois and Toledo for the West Division. There's little doubt that given time, Fleck can turn this roster into a monster. It's just that the current roster has huge holes: WMU's offensive line is worrisome, the defensive line a concern, the linebacker corps is suffering through injuries and the secondary is young and untested at cornerback. These are the reasons why the Broncos aren't quite up to the challenge of moving into the championship conversation.

Here's what I think will occur: WMU will start no better than 2-4 before growing more comfortable in Fleck's system just as the schedule eases up over the second half. If all things work out as Fleck hopes, WMU will catch fire just in time to challenge for six wins in November. It's more likely that WMU starts 1-5 or 2-4, beats a few bad teams down the stretch and makes things somewhat interesting against Ball State and NIU before ending the regular season with no more than five wins.

— Dream season: Fleck single-handedly wills Western Michigan to nine wins and the second spot in the MAC West.

— Nightmare season: The Broncos drop one win off last year's total to finish 3-9.

No. 99: Southern Methodist (AAC)
No. 100: Boston College (ACC)
No. 101: Kentucky (SEC)
No. 102: Central Michigan (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: I'm not confident in Central Michigan's ability to follow last season's bowl run with another dash to the postseason, not when CMU draws its three deciding games – UNLV, Miami (Ohio) and Western Michigan – away from home while still dealing with MAC West frontrunners Northern Illinois, Toledo and Ball State. Enos has done a nice job developing his young talent; the rest of the MAC has made similar strides, however, and I'm not convinced that the Chippewas are ready to make a push into one of the top three spots in the division.

In my mind, the season comes down to CMU going no worse than 4-1 in the following games: UNLV, Miami (Ohio), Western Michigan, UMass and Eastern Michigan. This assumes a win over New Hampshire giving CMU five wins; that would leave the Chippewas needing only one win from Michigan, Toledo, N.C. State, Ohio, NIU and Ball State – doable, at least. Keep in mind the fact that CMU has won only five road games over its three seasons under Enos, with two of those wins coming at EMU and UMass last November. Due to difficult stretches in the schedule, several moving pieces on offense and a defense that may struggle getting a pass rush and in coverage, I think this team ends up with four or five wins during the regular season.

Let's focus on one significant positive. Thanks to last year's postseason berth, Enos and his staff have bought themselves time to continue the development progress we've seen over the last 12 months. Enos himself is also developing; I think he made some errors early, but his growth has likewise been evident over the last two seasons. There are some very nice pieces on the roster, mostly in underclassmen, and there's little doubt that CMU is in a far better place today than at any point in either 2010 or 2011, when the jury remained out on the staff's ability to build a consistent winner. Last season ended those questions: Enos deserves time to take a slight step back in the win column in 2013 while the Chippewas continue to build from the bottom up.

— Dream season: The Chippewas again exceed expectations, adding two more wins upon last year's total to head into bowl play at 8-4.

— Nightmare season: CMU plummets back down to Earth and drills through the lithosphere, eventually settling near the mantle at 2-10.

No. 103: Miami (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: The schedule will allow Miami to match last season's win total – but given how the RedHawks miss Toledo and NIU while getting Buffalo, Akron and Central Michigan at home, another four-win finish would be a tremendous disappointment. Yet that's where we are: Miami is not truly good in any one spot, terrible at others, and there's little reason for confidence as the program enters its third season under Treadwell and his staff.

Let's take the good news where we can get it. Miami is fortunate to have an experienced senior like Boucher on hand to replace Dysert under center. The defensive line is loaded with seniors, with one, Brown, a huge addition along the interior. Wade is a linchpin of the entire front seven on the strong side; Nunley is one of the top cornerbacks in the MAC, and there's nice depth at the position. Moving Wes Williams down at end on a permanent basis should lead to steady progress from the pass rush.

These are positives. The negatives? Let's see: the offensive line, pass protection, run blocking, the backfield, the lack of depth at receiver, the subtle changes toward youth at linebacker and the game of musical chairs at safety. These are not good things; these are things that will lead a team to make nothing out of an enviable MAC schedule. Could this team be worse than last season's group yet win the same number of games – if not win five, even? Without a doubt. The schedule will allow Miami to hang along, treading water, but I see zero improvement between the white lines.

— Dream season: Miami splits its four September games and goes 5-3 against the MAC to finish above .500 for the second time since 2006.

— Nightmare season: Miami starts 0-5 before beating Akron and UMass, but that's all: 2-10.

No. 104: Texas State (Sun Belt)
No. 105: Hawaii (MWC)
No. 106: Army (Independent)
No. 107: Colorado State (MWC)
No. 108: New Mexico (MWC)
No. 109: Tulane (CUSA to AAC in '14)
No. 110: Illinois (Big Ten)
No. 111: Florida Atlantic (CUSA)
No. 112: UT-El Paso (CUSA)
No. 113: North Texas (CUSA)
No. 114: UNLV (MWC)
No. 115: Colorado (Pac-12)
No. 116: West Tennessee State (AAC)
No. 117: EMU (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: The quest for six wins will hit another hiccup in 2013, as EMU must navigate a shift in offensive philosophy, a reworked offensive line and a downtrodden defense while facing as tough a schedule you'll find in MAC play. The Eagles know that Northern Illinois, Toledo and Ball State are part of the deal as members of the West Division; getting Ohio and Bowling Green from the East seems cruel, and doubly so for a program just desperate for any signals of clear progress.

Speaking of progress, much of EMU's season hinges on Parrish's new offense and a defense that suffered a steep slide in every statistical category a year ago. There are pieces to like on offense, such as Benz's projected improvement under center and Hill's dual-threat ability in the backfield, but EMU could be hamstrung from the start should the front not jell before October. I simply can't see much reason for optimism on defense. Yes, there's some experience up front and in the secondary, but does EMU have the tools to be successful against the MAC's elite offenses?

Let's put it this way: it would be a surprise if EMU won six games. Five wins would be a pleasant surprise; four would be nice; three would be expected; two wouldn't raise an eyebrow. To beat many teams on this schedule, EMU would need to play a perfect game. Is that possible?

— Dream season: EMU shocks the Midwest by beating Penn State in September. The Eagles carry that momentum into October, winning five MAC games to finish 7-5.

— Nightmare season: EMU opens with a win over Howard before dropping 11 straight.

No. 118: Florida International (CUSA)
No. 119: UT-San Antonio (CUSA)
No. 120: Akron (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: The Zips have issues on offense and defense, not to mention a terribly difficult schedule, so it's difficult to envision a scenario where Akron leaps from one win to say, more than three. I feel secure in predicting one of those wins to come over UMass, unlike last season, and Akron should find a second victory against James Madison in September. The third is difficult to locate, however, especially given how Akron's MAC schedule breaks in October and November.

It doesn't seem fair, in a sense. The league's second-worst team – if not its worst team altogether – drawing the league's unquestioned top five teams in the span of eight games: Ohio, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Ball State and Toledo. Add in non-conference games against Michigan, Louisiana-Lafayette and UCF; there's eight losses. Akron has improved, but so has a team like Miami (Ohio) – and so has Massachusetts, for that matter. Victories, when they come, will be precious.

The offense is still finding its way despite last season's successful turn (all things considered). That the defense played well during the spring is a good sign, but it's also a sign of how far the offense needs to go before it can improve upon last season's production. In all, the Zips are not built to handle this season's schedule – in terms of personnel, player development and overall talent level. This rebuilding process will continue.

In the best case, Akron goes 1-3 in non-conference play and beats three teams in the MAC: Kent State, UMass and Miami (Ohio). In the worst case, Akron can't even handle James Madison early and fails to notch a victory all season. The most likely scenario stands somewhere in the middle, with the Zips having enough talent and coaching to top UMass but failing to mount a serious challenge against the majority of this schedule.

— Dream season: Akron goes 1-3 in non-conference play but turns it on in October and November, winning four games against MAC competition and coming close to bowl eligibility.

— Nightmare season: The Zips lose to James Madison and UMass. The Zips lose to everyone.

No. 121: New Mexico State (Independent to Sun Belt in '14)
No. 122: South Alabama (Sun Belt)
No. 123: Idaho (Independent to Sun Belt in '14)
No. 124: UMass (MAC)

Quote:SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: The Minutemen's slow, steady, up-from-the-bootstraps climb continues in 2013 with another deadly non-conference slate, another tough MAC schedule and, more than likely, another 10 or more losses. Ten losses seem a safe pick: UMass should beat Maine in September and then get one MAC win, but anything more than that would be a slight surprise.

Why? Because UMass isn't quite there — not yet, and perhaps not for another two seasons. The team's youth is at once its greatest asset and its greatest weakness: UMass has enough young talent to be optimistic about the future, but even as second-year sophomores, the majority of the roster's headliners are not quite ready to lift the Minutemen out of the bottom two spots in the MAC East Division. Players such as Sharpe, Messiah, Santos-Knox, Bailey-Smith, Jette and several true freshmen look like keepers, but this group's transformation into all-conference standouts won't occur in 2013. In the future, perhaps. Just not today, and not until UMass has more experience under its belt.

The offense lacks punch, in the passing game, where Wegzyn must step forward, and in the running game, where the line's inability to get a push remains a mammoth concern. While Molnar is an offensive technician, he'll again need to cobble together yards when and where he can rather than rely on explosive plays. Defensively, moving players such as Messiah and Andre around settles the two-deep but doesn't necessarily translate to an immediate breakthrough. Quite simply, UMass doesn't have the offensive firepower to run with most of the MAC nor the defensive fortitude to bottle teams up and win in the fourth quarter.

On the MAC's spectrum, UMass stands just a shade behind Akron, a step behind a team such as Eastern Michigan, a football field away from Miami (Ohio) and Buffalo and miles short of Toledo, Ball State and Ohio. (Don't ask where UMass stands in comparison to Northern Illinois.) Better days might be ahead, but the record should indicate otherwise in 2013.

— Dream season: September isn't pretty, but UMass hits its stride in October and wins four games during MAC play to finish 5-7.

—Nightmare season: September isn't pretty, nor is October and November. The lone win comes against Maine — on a late field goal, let's say. Akron wins by 21 points.

No. 125: Georgia State (Sun Belt)



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I was hoping he'd continue his countdown upon joining larger print and digital media.

UMass, I'm begging you, please stop scheduling BCS teams for your OOC.

^ Money. We need the pay days. We already have them scheduled for the next 8 years. Sorry. (You only beat us by 3 last year. Don't forget it.)

(05-08-2013 09:01 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  ^ Money. We need the pay days. We already have them scheduled for the next 8 years. Sorry. (You only beat us by 3 last year. Don't forget it.)

You're coming to Peden this year boy.

these payday games are going to destroy what little fanbase UMass has left. Your conference home opener was against an Ohio team getting national attention but only 8K people showed up to watch because the headlines for the first 3 weeks of the season were about UMass getting routed a combined 145-19 by BCS teams. There has to be a better balance.

and please don't confuse a banged up Ohio team doing the bare minimum to win without getting anymore injuries with a 9-4 team running on all cylinders getting pushed to the limit by UMass.

I want UMass to succeed.

^ We simply need the money. It's a reality. We HAVE to play those games. Zero option boys, sorry.

Plus, Vandy is a home game for us this year. That will bring a nice crowd.

Akron is next at #120.

Quote:UP NEXT

— Who is No. 120? This team is housed in a city whose population expanded by more than 200% in the 1920s but has declined in each decade since the 1970s.

(05-08-2013 07:58 PM)EmeryZach Wrote:  ^ We simply need the money. It's a reality. We HAVE to play those games. Zero option boys, sorry.

Plus, Vandy is a home game for us this year. That will bring a nice crowd.

?

^

I know, I know, only if it's sunny and 65 degrees. You're right, if it's raining we'll be lucky to get 10,000.

I'm just hoping Vandy is ranked when they come to Gillette. Might add a couple extra butts in the seats.

Nothing wrong with UMass playing money games. They are building the program and it will take time. The BCS games gives them some exposure and reminds recruits that they play in FBS now. UMass isn't that far behind. The difference between top and bottom of the MAC isn't that much if you have the right coach and financial support to close the gap.

No. 120: Akron (MAC)

Summary posted in the original post.

Florida International is next at #119.

Quote:UP NEXT

— Who is No. 119?: This team's coach is the only one in its division – and one of two in its entire conference – to lead a team to a BCS bowl.

EDIT: I was wrong UTSA is #119.

I had Ron Turner (FIU) and June Jones (SMU) as the two coaches to lead team to BCS bowl. I guess SMU is in the AAC and not CUSA this year, darn realignment. So I missed UTSA.

I think Bowden will eventually get Akron turned around and may even win a MAC championship. It'll probably take a few years and following the first or second successful season, he'll probably head to a more southernly locale.

UMass beats Akron at Akron last year, Akron does NOT win a game against FBS competition at all last year and yet Akron is ranked ahead of UMass.

Something doesn't add up.

(05-13-2013 02:24 PM)jjmc85 Wrote:  UMass beats Akron at Akron last year, Akron does NOT win a game against FBS competition at all last year and yet Akron is ranked ahead of UMass.

Something doesn't add up.

PM does his rankings based on how well he thinks the teams will do this year, not how they finished last year. Akron, because they don't have to deal with all of the challenges of transitioning to a new conference and a new classification, and have a more experienced head coach in Bowden, should be slightly ahead of UMass in the growth curve this year. I like Molnar but he's still a new coach and he still has a team of mostly FCS recruits, those are additional challenges Akron doesn't have to deal with.

(05-12-2013 09:50 PM)mufanatehc Wrote:  I think Bowden will eventually get Akron turned around and may even win a MAC championship. It'll probably take a few years and following the first or second successful season, he'll probably head to a more southernly locale.

If that is going to happen its first going to show on the recruiting trail and so far Akron hasn't made any inroads.

The thing with MAC recruiting is that Toledo and Miami usually do well across the Midwest and then Ohio hits in-state pretty hard. Kent and BG clean up in Cleveland.

Akron could try to make up for it by going down into Florida but there is about 10 FBS programs coming online and trying to do the same thing.

Akron has 7 straight losing seasons. Losing is piling up. That can mean one thing.....its time for Akron to head to CUSA!!

(05-13-2013 03:15 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Akron could try to make up for it by going down into Florida but there is about 10 FBS programs coming online and trying to do the same thing.

I was thinking of asking this question:

How much is the MAC getting hurt by all of these new FBS schools coming aboard in Florida?

It would seem that they are recruiting the same type of recruit as we are.

P.S. ditto for schools like Ga. Southern, Georgia State, Charlotte, ODU, etc. etc.

All might be looking to the Sunshine State for some players.

(05-13-2013 03:15 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(05-12-2013 09:50 PM)mufanatehc Wrote:  I think Bowden will eventually get Akron turned around and may even win a MAC championship. It'll probably take a few years and following the first or second successful season, he'll probably head to a more southernly locale.

If that is going to happen its first going to show on the recruiting trail and so far Akron hasn't made any inroads. The thing with MAC recruiting is that Toledo and Miami usually do well across the Midwest and then Ohio hits in-state pretty hard. Kent and BG clean up in Cleveland.

Akron could try to make up for it by going down into Florida but there is about 10 FBS programs coming online and trying to do the same thing.

Akron has 7 straight losing seasons. Losing is piling up. That can mean one thing.....its time for Akron to head to CUSA!!

I think we've seen that the recruiting rankings have little bearing on how MAC teams do.

(05-13-2013 04:47 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(05-13-2013 03:15 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Akron could try to make up for it by going down into Florida but there is about 10 FBS programs coming online and trying to do the same thing.

I was thinking of asking this question:

How much is the MAC getting hurt by all of these new FBS schools coming aboard in Florida?

It would seem that they are recruiting the same type of recruit as we are.

P.S. ditto for schools like Ga. Southern, Georgia State, Charlotte, ODU, etc. etc.

All might be looking to the Sunshine State for some players.

You would think so but it seems our ability to recruit Florida is increasing. We had 11% of our players from Florida with no Florida schools (and few games too) what so ever. I am not sure if it is our ability to give playing time or the schools themselves but we are making most of whatever it is.

Okay, now Florida International is next at #118.

Quote:UP NEXT

— Who is No. 118? The coach of tomorrow's team shares a birthday (not the same year) with a wide receiver who held the NFL record for career receptions until the 1995 season.

December 5, 1957 - Art Monk
December 5, 1953 - Ron Turner