(04-28-2013 02:23 PM)DonnyMost Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 02:13 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 01:15 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 12:50 PM)JDTulane Wrote:  If the BIG12 expands it will be for Tulane. Duh. By then we'll have had 2 w[h]in*ing seasons in a row.

You made it to easy my friend....

I think if the B12 lost a school to the B1G or another conference they would almost have to replace from the AAC because schools in the AAC are building value on ESPN and they've already committed East with West Virginia.

Who is going to bring the most value out of the AAC in 2016? It has been said the "Group A" schools of the AAC are Houston, Cincinnati, UConn and Temple. Tulane is not in the Group A category and probably won't rise up within the next 5 years.

Thinking here that Houston is a redundant market for the B12 and that UConn would likely end up in the B1G or ACC as part of a deal does it make sense for the B12 to look to Temple for the large market, rivalry with WVU and as a placeholder for more expansion in the East?

Could 12 for the Big XII be Temple and Cincinnati?

Dallas (SMU) is a redundant market for the Big 12.

Houston is not.

The B12 was OK with adding a Dallas-FW team in TCU with a huge amount of success. There wasn't a school in the B12 within 3 hours of Dallas.

For the B12 to go back into Texas for a 5th school doesn't make a whole lot of sense, IMO.

Temple and Cincinnati bring 2 large states/large markets into the B12. States that are underserved by AQ representation.

If the goal of the B12 is to stay in the east and have themselves prepared for a B1G/SEC raid of the SEC I see the logic in taking a few more teams in the East now with the idea of picking through the ACC leftovers later.

B1G-> Kansas/Connecticut
B12-> Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis
AAC-> Rice, UTSA, Old Dominion

Then.....

B1G-> UVA/Georgia Tech
SEC-> UNC/Duke
B12-> Florida St, Clemson, NCSt, VT, Syracuse

B12 East: Syracuse, Temple, WVU, Cincinnati, Memphis, VT, NC St, Clemson, Florida St.

AAC-> Boston College, Wake Forest, Miami

I don't know its just an idea but I see a lot of merit in the idea of the B12 continuing to add to the East in the hope picking through the ACC leftovers some day.

Another option....

Round 1 (2016)
B1G: Kansas/Missouri
B12: Cincinnati
SEC: SMU
AAC: UTSA, ODU

Round 2 (2026)
B1G: Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC: Duke, North Carolina
B12: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, VT, NC State, Clemson, FSU

The problem I see with taking Temple is you may get stuck with them down the road when Pittsburgh is available.

My comments are in this color:

(04-28-2013 03:32 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 02:23 PM)DonnyMost Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 02:13 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 01:15 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 12:50 PM)JDTulane Wrote:  If the BIG12 expands it will be for Tulane. Duh. By then we'll have had 2 w[h]in*ing seasons in a row.

You made it to easy my friend....

I think if the B12 lost a school to the B1G or another conference they would almost have to replace from the AAC because schools in the AAC are building value on ESPN and they've already committed East with West Virginia.

Who is going to bring the most value out of the AAC in 2016? It has been said the "Group A" schools of the AAC are Houston, Cincinnati, UConn and Temple. Tulane is not in the Group A category and probably won't rise up within the next 5 years.

Thinking here that Houston is a redundant market for the B12 and that UConn would likely end up in the B1G or ACC as part of a deal does it make sense for the B12 to look to Temple for the large market, rivalry with WVU and as a placeholder for more expansion in the East?

Could 12 for the Big XII be Temple and Cincinnati?

Dallas (SMU) is a redundant market for the Big 12.

Houston is not.

The B12 was OK with adding a Dallas-FW team in TCU with a huge amount of success. There wasn't a school in the B12 within 3 hours of Dallas.

For the B12 to go back into Texas for a 5th school doesn't make a whole lot of sense, IMO.

Temple and Cincinnati bring 2 large states/large markets into the B12. States that are underserved by AQ representation.

As previously stated, the BIG XII will focus on football so Temple is eliminated, and Cincinnati needs to improve its attendance.

If the goal of the B12 is to stay in the east and have themselves prepared for a B1G/SEC raid of the SEC I see the logic in taking a few more teams in the East now with the idea of picking through the ACC leftovers later.

If you read my post on page 1 of this thread, the B1G was interested in Vanderbilt. It may be able to get Vanderbilt and Missouri, but that's about it for the SEC. It's too strong of a conference.

B1G-> Kansas (not happening-GOR)/Connecticut
B12-> Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis-BIG XII wants good football, not bball so Temple and Memphis are elimanated.
AAC-> Rice, UTSA, Old Dominion-seriously?

Then.....

B1G-> UVA/Georgia Tech-not happening-GOR
SEC-> UNC/Duke-not happening-GOR
B12-> Florida St, Clemson, NCSt, VT, Syracuse-not happening-GOR

B12 East: Syracuse, Temple, WVU, Cincinnati, Memphis, VT, NC St, Clemson, Florida St.-not happening-GOR

Instead, WV, ECU, Cincinnati, USF, and UCF

AAC-> Boston College, Wake Forest, Miami-not happening-GOR

I don't know its just an idea but I see a lot of merit in the idea of the B12 continuing to add to the East in the hope picking through the ACC leftovers some day.

Another option....

Round 1 (2016)
B1G: Kansas-not happening-GOR/Missouri
B12: Cincinnati
SEC: SMU-NO
AAC: UTSA, ODU-NO WAY!

Round 2 (2026)
B1G: Virginia, Georgia Tech-not happening-GOR
SEC: Duke, North Carolina-not happening-GOR
B12: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, VT, NC State, Clemson, FSU-not happening-GOR

The problem I see with taking Temple is you may get stuck with them down the road when Pittsburgh is available.

(04-28-2013 12:31 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  Realignment Speculation. "Not Factual!!!"

So with the ACC's new grant of rights in place, that should remove any further teams of the ACC from other conferences raiding lists.

So whom do you think will be the next targets?

B1G
I think the B1G is still trying to get to 16. I think they may go for UConn, (New member of the AAU) and Temple, (Temple to secure a greater place in the Philly Market Place).

Big XII
I think the Big XII will expand to 12 to meet the new Playoff Criteria. I think they may go for a foot hold in Florida as well. Now with FSU off the table, I think they may actually look at USF and UCF which combine for the 4th largest market in the US. They are also natural rivals by proximity and they are in the center of the state not to mention both have large enrollments and alumnus base local to the schools.

SEC
The SEC needn't move at all however, If they do decide to expand, I believe they may be looking at Houston to pair with aTm in Texas. The second team I believe may be om their radar is ECU. ECU has the same atmosphere as many of the SEC's current teams on game day and their fans attend games. Memphis would be a great fit to enhance their Basketball but I think that Tenn will Blackball them until judgement day.

PAC 12
Again, the PAC 12 needn't do anything. I'm also thinking that they are low on options do to the GOR in the Big XII and the LHN. If PAC 12 does make a move, it may be involve UNLV + Nevada, Colorado St + AirForce or SDSU + Fresno St. The PAC 12 likes to take two teams per state thus my options here followed their model. The PAC may look at Houston + SMU but Houston would rather play east and thus the SEC would be their hands down choice.

Every thing is just MHO and nothing more.

The Big Ten might go for UConn, but I think that they would be more likely to go for Syracuse (I know about them GOR, but this thread is meant to be speculation) and Temple wouldn't happen. Temple isn't AAU and their endowment isn't big enough (a simple enough thing to look at). Missouri would be the best add for the Big Ten.

Florida State wouldn't move to the Big XXII, it is better where it is at. I wouldn't be surprised by either UCF or USF, though. Houston would be a good add for the Big XXII. Maybe New Mexico?

They are a pretty good team in regards to football, but I don't see the appeal for ECU by any BCS conference. With all of the recent talk about them I could see a conference thinking about it. I don't see the SEC adding ECU. Maybe Florida State if Florida doesn't object too much.

UNLV is a good basketball program, but a horrible football program. I think that Nevada would be a better program to add to the Pac 12. Again, I think that if a school's endowment is much less than the average of a conference's then they wont be added. That takes out most teams. The Pac 12 has been talked about with some of the teams from the Big XXII, maybe one of them? Maybe Hawaii?

(04-28-2013 02:01 PM)Underdog Wrote:  My comments are in bold font:

(04-28-2013 12:31 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  Realignment Speculation. "Not Factual!!!"

So with the ACC's new grant of rights in place, that should remove any further teams of the ACC from other conferences raiding lists.

So whom do you think will be the next targets?

B1G
I think the B1G is still trying to get to 16. I think they may go for UConn, (New member of the AAU) and Temple, (Temple to secure a greater place in the Philly Market Place).

The B1G has also looked at acquiring Oklahoma, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. I could see Vanderbilt, Missouri, or may be UCONN in the B1G:

http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/...g-12.html/

Big XII
I think the Big XII will expand to 12 to meet the new Playoff Criteria. I think they may go for a foot hold in Florida as well. Now with FSU off the table, I think they may actually look at USF and UCF which combine for the 4th largest market in the US. They are also natural rivals by proximity and they are in the center of the state not to mention both have large enrollments and alumnus base local to the schools.

The BIG XII is running out of options.... Therefore, I could see USF and UCF as possibilities. However, ECU and UC are better eastern companions for WV. All four schools need to start scheduling ooc games against BIG XII schools; especially Texas and Oklahoma

"There is additional movement to come in conference realignment. We can't allow what happened to the Big East happen to the Big 12 as far as only having 10 teams. We're happy where we are right now but nobody believes conference realignment is over. But, it is important for us to have eastern partners in the conference.

Those are the WVU athletic director's words, not mine. In his own words, he acknowledges that expansion is coming. I think most of us assumed that much."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/15222...ion-coming


SEC
The SEC needn't move at all however, If they do decide to expand, I believe they may be looking at Houston to pair with aTm in Texas. The second team I believe may be om their radar is ECU. ECU has the same atmosphere as many of the SEC's current teams on game day and their fans attend games. Memphis would be a great fit to enhance their Basketball but I think that Tenn will Blackball them until judgement day.

“Florida's president, Bernie Machen, told CBSSports.com the league will eschew the 16-team superconference model unless some ace jewel called us and said, 'Can you help us?'"

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...r/21932277

No school in this conference is able to call the SEC to collect $$ as an “ace jewel,” but I can see ECU as the diamond in the rough. It would be a good fit for SEC football. Therefore, if the B1G were to take Vanderbilt and Missouri, I could see ECU and Memphis going to the SEC. However, Houston has no chance at the SEC in my opinion.

PAC 12
Again, the PAC 12 needn't do anything. I'm also thinking that they are low on options do to the GOR in the Big XII and the LHN. If PAC 12 does make a move, it may be involve UNLV + Nevada, Colorado St + AirForce or SDSU + Fresno St. The PAC 12 likes to take two teams per state thus my options here followed their model. The PAC may look at Houston + SMU but Houston would rather play east and thus the SEC would be their hands down choice.

I agree.... The MWC will always be there for the PAC 12 to carve up. However, it will never consider Houston and SMU when it could have added Texas, Texas T, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St, but declined.

Every thing is just MHO and nothing more.

...MHO as well.

Read my lips ( I know...impossible...) SEC will never have to replace any school. Never, No one is leaving. That said, now you can adjust your strategy accordingly. A school leaving the SEC is laughable, but I guess you have to play a year down here to understand that.

Wow...lot of wishful thinking here.

-There will not be another TX team in the SEC
-Neither of the OK schools will not be in the SEC
-No AAC/CUSA school will be in the SEC

I could be wrong but IMO the ACC GOR means any there wont be an Armageddon scenario and most movement will be limited to backfilling for quite a while.

Watch for the Pac maybe eyeing Hawaii. Don't laugh, state school and they have had talks about expanding with some games in asia. UNLV is also a real possibility and a nice bridge to the two new mountain additions. Building that huge new football stadium is a step in the right direction.

(04-28-2013 04:11 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Read my lips ( I know...impossible...) SEC will never have to replace any school. Never, No one is leaving. That said, now you can adjust your strategy accordingly. A school leaving the SEC is laughable, but I guess you have to play a year down here to understand that.

Please read the topic being discussed before making a pointless post. Since when does "speculation and not factual"—the topic of this thread—mean that it would actually happen? Consequently, this this thread is nothing but speculation. However, feel free to further enlighten us on the difference between fact and fiction.....

(04-28-2013 04:18 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Wow...lot of wishful thinking here.

-There will not be another TX team in the SEC
-Neither of the OK schools will not be in the SEC
-No AAC/CUSA school will be in the SEC

I could be wrong but IMO the ACC GOR means any there wont be an Armageddon scenario and most movement will be limited to backfilling for quite a while.

Who then does the SEC pluck if the B1G pulled off stealing Missouri?

The SEC's options are pretty limited if you eliminate a second Texas school.

(04-28-2013 04:19 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Watch for the Pac maybe eyeing Hawaii. Don't laugh, state school and they have had talks about expanding with some games in asia. UNLV is also a real possibility and a nice bridge to the two new mountain additions. Building that huge new football stadium is a step in the right direction.

I could actually see that happening in a thread full of speculation....

(04-28-2013 03:32 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The B12 was OK with adding a Dallas-FW team in TCU with a huge amount of success. There wasn't a school in the B12 within 3 hours of Dallas.

For the B12 to go back into Texas for a 5th school doesn't make a whole lot of sense, IMO.

Baylor, UT AND OU are all within 3 hours of Dallas.

There are a crapton of UT, OU, and Tech grads in Dallas, moreso than in Houston. There's also a significant amount of OK State grads there, but that's neither here nor there.

It makes sense if 1) Houston brings more money to the table and 2) they need to bring balance to a North-South alignment.

Like I said in my scenario, subtract KU and add Louisville and Cincinnati. Suddenly, you have a need for a 12th member. Houston presents a very logical add given the substantial amount of ground the Big 12 has lost to the SEC in East Texas.

(04-28-2013 04:23 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 04:18 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Wow...lot of wishful thinking here.

-There will not be another TX team in the SEC
-Neither of the OK schools will not be in the SEC
-No AAC/CUSA school will be in the SEC

I could be wrong but IMO the ACC GOR means any there wont be an Armageddon scenario and most movement will be limited to backfilling for quite a while.

Who then does the SEC pluck if the B1G pulled off stealing Missouri?

The SEC's options are pretty limited if you eliminate a second Texas school.

Missouri is there to be taken if the B1G really wants it. Moreover, it was fortunate that the SEC gave it protective custody after it escaped from the Texas warden and BIG XII lockdown.

(04-28-2013 12:31 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  Realignment Speculation. "Not Factual!!!"

So with the ACC's new grant of rights in place, that should remove any further teams of the ACC from other conferences raiding lists.

So whom do you think will be the next targets?

B1G
I think the B1G is still trying to get to 16. I think they may go for UConn, (New member of the AAU) and Temple, (Temple to secure a greater place in the Philly Market Place).

Big XII
I think the Big XII will expand to 12 to meet the new Playoff Criteria. I think they may go for a foot hold in Florida as well. Now with FSU off the table, I think they may actually look at USF and UCF which combine for the 4th largest market in the US. They are also natural rivals by proximity and they are in the center of the state not to mention both have large enrollments and alumnus base local to the schools.

SEC
The SEC needn't move at all however, If they do decide to expand, I believe they may be looking at Houston to pair with aTm in Texas. The second team I believe may be om their radar is ECU. ECU has the same atmosphere as many of the SEC's current teams on game day and their fans attend games. Memphis would be a great fit to enhance their Basketball but I think that Tenn will Blackball them until judgement day.

PAC 12
Again, the PAC 12 needn't do anything. I'm also thinking that they are low on options do to the GOR in the Big XII and the LHN. If PAC 12 does make a move, it may be involve UNLV + Nevada, Colorado St + AirForce or SDSU + Fresno St. The PAC 12 likes to take two teams per state thus my options here followed their model. The PAC may look at Houston + SMU but Houston would rather play east and thus the SEC would be their hands down choice.

Every thing is just MHO and nothing more.

You lost me at ECU to the SEC.

(04-28-2013 12:31 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  ...
So whom do you think will be the next targets?

B1G I think the B1G is still trying to get to 16. I think they may go for UConn, (New member of the AAU) and Temple, (Temple to secure a greater place in the Philly Market Place).

When did UConn join the AAU, again? The last member added was BostonU in 2012.

Don't see Temple in the AAU either, so there's two votes (that school up north and Wisconsin) against Temple ... and since they don't bring much money, no votes in favor.

(04-28-2013 03:32 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 02:23 PM)DonnyMost Wrote:  Dallas (SMU) is a redundant market for the Big 12.

Houston is not.

The B12 was OK with adding a Dallas-FW team in TCU with a huge amount of success. There wasn't a school in the B12 within 3 hours of Dallas.

For the B12 to go back into Texas for a 5th school doesn't make a whole lot of sense, IMO.

The Big12 no longer has a school in East Texas. And East Texas on its own has a bigger population than many states tossed around in this discussion as worth adding.

Houston is obviously not there as far as a big enough appeal in East Texas to matter to the kinds of media payment per school that the Big12 is talking about. So its a question of whether Houston matures into a program with that kind of appeal or not. Which means that Houston is kind of lucky that the Major Conference realignment merry go round is going to stop spinning for about a decade.

(04-28-2013 04:50 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 12:31 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  ...
So whom do you think will be the next targets?

B1G I think the B1G is still trying to get to 16. I think they may go for UConn, (New member of the AAU) and Temple, (Temple to secure a greater place in the Philly Market Place).

When did UConn join the AAU, again? The last member added was BostonU in 2012.

Don't see Temple in the AAU either, so there's two votes (that school up north and Wisconsin) against Temple ... and since they don't bring much money, no votes in favor.

(04-28-2013 03:32 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 02:23 PM)DonnyMost Wrote:  Dallas (SMU) is a redundant market for the Big 12.

Houston is not.

The B12 was OK with adding a Dallas-FW team in TCU with a huge amount of success. There wasn't a school in the B12 within 3 hours of Dallas.

For the B12 to go back into Texas for a 5th school doesn't make a whole lot of sense, IMO.

The Big12 no longer has a school in East Texas. And East Texas on its own has a bigger population than many states tossed around in this discussion as worth adding.

Houston is obviously not there as far as a big enough appeal in East Texas to matter to the kinds of media payment per school that the Big12 is talking about. So its a question of whether Houston matures into a program with that kind of appeal or not. Which means that Houston is kind of lucky that the Major Conference realignment merry go round is going to stop spinning for about a decade.

You can add PSU, RU and Mary as votes against Temple.

Lots of AAC fans trying to make themselves feel better in this thread...

The TV networks have spoken and said we won't invite anyone that doesn't add additional money to our TV contract. The Big 12 doesn't need or want small schools that can't average 35-40K on a yearly basis.

(04-28-2013 05:20 PM)kobe Wrote:  Lots of AAC fans trying to make themselves feel better in this thread...

Not true.... This thread was started on the AAC board and was moved here. Just from the title of the thread, none of us expect our realignment or expansion scenarios to really happen. It's just interesting to read the suggestions of others and why it would be feasible.

(04-28-2013 05:26 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  The TV networks have spoken and said we won't invite anyone that doesn't add additional money to our TV contract. The Big 12 doesn't need or want small schools that can't average 35-40K on a yearly basis.

Remove Texas and Oklahoma from your conference, and it would be fortunate to see $2 mil per year. Let us not forget when Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St ran to the PAC 12, but were turned away.

Alright....I will throw Temple out of the mix for the B12.

2016 Expansion (B1G TV deal open)
B1G-> Kansas, Missouri (send Purdue to the East)
SEC-> TCU (improves the academics of the SEC)
B12-> Cincinnati, Houston
AAC-> Rice, Army
CUSA-> Arkansas St.

With the B1G only taking 1 school from the B12, Kansas can sue for damages to get out. The damages to the B12 will be minimal.

2023 Expansion (B12 TV deal open)
PAC-> Texas, TT, OU, OSU (match the B1G at 16 schools)
B12-> SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Memphis (backfill time)
AAC-> Georgia St, UAB, ODU, Marshall (AAC heads East)
CUSA-> GS, Troy, ULL, NMSU (SBC gets weaker)

Looking at things this way the B12 will probably be raided way before the ACC GOR expires. I don't think Texas will allow itself to sit in a dying conference.

2026 Expansion (ACC TV deal open)
B1G-> Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC-> Duke, North Carolina
ACC-> WVU, Cincinnati, UConn, USF (ACC takes from B12/AAC)
B12-> Tulane, So Miss (loses AQ status for sure)
AAC-> UMass, Charlotte, MTSU (mirror image of CUSA East 3.0)
CUSA-> App St, Texas St, USA (SBC finally dies)

Overall Takeaways:
1) The B12 is doomed by not expanding beyond 10. They should have locked down Louisville and Cincinnati while they had the chance and go to 12. That would have forced UConn into the ACC. The B12 could have added Notre Dame into the mix too.

2) The ACC will survive as an AQ conference even if UVA, GT, Duke and FSU leave. That is because they still have quality additions to work with in the East and would have no problem poaching WVU once the B12 GOR expires.

3) I will go out on a limb and say B1G expansion probably does not happen in 2016. The B1G may wait and see how the new playoff shakes out before trying to do anything.

Revised 2023 Movement
2023 Expansion (B12 TV deal open)
B1G-> Kansas, Oklahoma
SEC-> Kansas St, Oklahoma St
PAC-> Texas, TT, UNM, UNLV (Las Vegas market!)
ACC-> WVU, Cincinnati (raids the B12)
B12-> SMU, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane, Rice (non-AQ time)
AAC-> Georgia St, UAB, ODU, Marshall, Charlotte, MTSU (AAC heads East)
MWC-> UTEP, NMSU (MWC back to 12)
CUSA-> GS, Troy, ULL, NMSU, App St, Texas St, USA, Ark St (SBC is pronounced dead)

Likely it will be one massive extinction event that turns the B12 into a non-AQ and destroys the SBC in one quick swipe.

Then everyone has new alignments ready for 2025 in advance of the next playoff deal for 8 teams and even more cash.

(04-28-2013 05:31 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 05:26 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  The TV networks have spoken and said we won't invite anyone that doesn't add additional money to our TV contract. The Big 12 doesn't need or want small schools that can't average 35-40K on a yearly basis.

Remove Texas and Oklahoma from your conference, and it would be fortunate to see $2 mil per year. Let us not forget when Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St ran to the PAC 12, but were turned away.

OK sure. Tech is the 29th largest fan supported University in the country and we get a ton of eye balls on TV sets. The PAC 12 handed out invites to UT, Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St but UT wouldn't give on on the LHN. It was Texas that pulled away from the PAC 12.