****Go to post #17 for updated projections****


I've been seing various posts about regional projections in other threads that were off topic. So let's create one spot to post regional projections and discussions about our conference members and where we stand with post season approaching.

SEBaseball's Projections (April 23rd)
This one has South Alabama as a #2 seed auto bid in Miss. State regional.
UL as a #3 seed at large in the LSU regional.
FAU as a #3 seed at large in the FSU regional.

If anyone finds other projections, feel free to post them all here from here on out so we can all discuss regionals in one place.

Good luck everyone! We need to get 4 teams in this year! Don't think that has ever happened. If so, it's been awhile.

Kendall Rogers at Perfect Game's NCAA projections for today: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8333

He's got USA in as the autobid (#2 seed in LSU regional), Troy (#3 seed in Mississippi State regional) and FAU (#3 seed in South Carolina regional) as at-large bids with the Cajuns in the Next 10.

(04-25-2013 01:05 PM)asumike83 Wrote:  Kendall Rogers at Perfect Game's NCAA projections for today: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8333

He's got USA in as the autobid (#2 seed in LSU regional), Troy (#3 seed in Mississippi State regional) and FAU (#3 seed in South Carolina regional) as at-large bids with the Cajuns in the Next 10.

Very nice. Anyone see a way that all 4 of these teams make it in?

Been keeping up with SBC baseball even before the announcement but watching closer since App made it official. Here is my $.02:

USA: Lock. Barring a complete collapse, they are in regardless of the conference tournament. Already got 30+ wins, #13 RPI.
Troy: Excellent chance. Need to finish strong and can't slip up at home against FIU/ASU but having already broken 30 wins and #51 RPI, they look like a good bet.
FAU: Same boat as Troy. Not the same lofty win total but SOS in their favor, sitting at #31 in the RPI. Unless they either take a sweep to Troy/FIU/WKU or lose the series to UALR, good chance.
Cajuns: I think they're the wild card for the conference getting four. RPI is excellent at #23, series wins over Troy/FAU/USM help a lot but the 1-5 stretch against WKU/MTSU hurts. RPI will probably drop a bit in the series with FIU (#101), ASU (#126) and ULM (#200). If they lose any of those series, it could get dicey but a series win over USA should put them in no matter what.

WKU has an outside shot as well. Already swept the season series with UK and could help themselves a lot of they can beat Louisville again and sweep that series. Bad losses early in the season are hurting them and a 22-19 overall record doesn't look great but if they can beat FAU/MTSU down the stretch, could get interesting. If they do get in, it will likely be at the expense of another conference team. Don't see the committee giving 5 bids.

ULL fans can vouch that ASU is usually a very tricky series for them...especially in Cajun land. Their RPI will go down anyway with the competition left, and they cant afford many slip ups. One series loss could seriously damage their chances.

(04-25-2013 01:43 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ULL fans can vouch that ASU is usually a very tricky series for them...especially in Cajun land. Their RPI will go down anyway with the competition left, and they cant afford many slip ups. One series loss could seriously damage their chances.

Its been tricky the last four or five years, but the Cajuns have had only one regional team during that spand. The wild card for ASU will be the Cajuns pitching, if it holds up you are probably not going to win the series this year with the bats UL has in the lineup right now.

(04-25-2013 01:47 PM)CrazyCajun Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 01:43 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ULL fans can vouch that ASU is usually a very tricky series for them...especially in Cajun land. Their RPI will go down anyway with the competition left, and they cant afford many slip ups. One series loss could seriously damage their chances.

Its been tricky the last four or five years, but the Cajuns have had only one regional team during that spand. The wild card for ASU will be the Cajuns pitching, if it holds up you are probably not going to win the series this year with the bats UL has in the lineup right now.

We dont have the offense to hold up against any kind of decent hitting team. We have to win games 3-2 or plan on losing. I dont expect to win, but I still remember some crazy years when some of the worst ASU teams imaginable walked out of Tigue Moore with 2 wins.

Might I remind everyone that the Sun Belt tournament is in Lafayette this year. That double elimination format bodes well for a home team hosting a tourny. We have a hostile crowd, especially if there's post season on the line. It won't be easy for ANYONE to win the Sun Belt Conference tourny this year, but Louisiana's chances of winning it this year are probably better than the rest. I hope I don't regret saying that. Either way, I already bought my tournament booklet of tickets, and I plan on going to more than just Cajuns games. There's sure to be some good baseball played that weekend.

Should be a fun one at the Tigue, if any of you have never been to Lafayette for some baseball before, I highly suggest coming down for the conference tourny, you WILL NOT be disappointed. We have so much entertainment and great restaurants to eat at while your teams aren't playing.

(04-25-2013 01:50 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 01:47 PM)CrazyCajun Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 01:43 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ULL fans can vouch that ASU is usually a very tricky series for them...especially in Cajun land. Their RPI will go down anyway with the competition left, and they cant afford many slip ups. One series loss could seriously damage their chances.

Its been tricky the last four or five years, but the Cajuns have had only one regional team during that spand. The wild card for ASU will be the Cajuns pitching, if it holds up you are probably not going to win the series this year with the bats UL has in the lineup right now.

We dont have the offense to hold up against any kind of decent hitting team. We have to win games 3-2 or plan on losing. I dont expect to win, but I still remember some crazy years when some of the worst ASU teams imaginable walked out of Tigue Moore with 2 wins.

Let's give credit to ASU for having a pretty darn 1/2 punch in their rotation several years and some big bats that could hit the ball out of the park with some of those teams. I'm not sure ASU has anything close to that this season. But, that is why the game is played.

FAU in over the Cajuns with a lower RPI and a series loss to the Cajuns is a head scratcher. The committee has shown in the past that it values head to head match ups when teams are comparable in the RPI.

While the Cajuns RPI will take a hit with series against ULM and ASU, it will get a boost when they play USA. Hopefully that series will negate the impact of the ULM and ASU series.

Stop making crap up, home teams haven't done squat in the SBC Tournament in ages. Home team hasn't made the championship game since 2002.

(04-25-2013 02:32 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  Stop making crap up, home teams haven't done squat in the SBC Tournament in ages. Home team hasn't made the championship game since 2002.

Some home teams haven't even made the tourny when hosting.

(04-25-2013 02:32 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  Stop making crap up, home teams haven't done squat in the SBC Tournament in ages. Home team hasn't made the championship game since 2002.

Sorry I got your panties in a wad. I guess I'm wrong then... we will prob fall flat on our faces.

(04-25-2013 01:06 PM)CajunJuice Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 01:05 PM)asumike83 Wrote:  Kendall Rogers at Perfect Game's NCAA projections for today: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8333

He's got USA in as the autobid (#2 seed in LSU regional), Troy (#3 seed in Mississippi State regional) and FAU (#3 seed in South Carolina regional) as at-large bids with the Cajuns in the Next 10.

Very nice. Anyone see a way that all 4 of these teams make it in?

Lot's more ball to play, but the thing to look at is opponents RPI
for the rest of your schedule. Losing to very bad RPI teams can sink you
in a hurry. I think So. Al can hold on easily, and i hope my Cajuns can.
Very Big Weekend..UL/FIU series coming up then UL/USA, but nobody will get hurt by
1 or 2 losses, because of our good RPI's. A sweep would hurt though.

(04-25-2013 02:45 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 02:32 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  Stop making crap up, home teams haven't done squat in the SBC Tournament in ages. Home team hasn't made the championship game since 2002.

Some home teams haven't even made the tourny when hosting.

ULM and ULL that's really it

(04-25-2013 04:40 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 02:45 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(04-25-2013 02:32 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  Stop making crap up, home teams haven't done squat in the SBC Tournament in ages. Home team hasn't made the championship game since 2002.

Some home teams haven't even made the tourny when hosting.

ULM and ULL that's really it

I have to give a little props for my guys. The year we hosted the tournament and didn't play, I think I remember reading that we still had a higher attendance than any other conference tournament.

Baseball America College Stock Report: Week 11 (May 1)

Quote:Sun Belt (4 bids)

SAFELY IN: South Alabama, Louisiana

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Troy, Florida Atlantic

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None

One change from last week: Troy joins our field after taking two of three at Florida Atlantic. The Trojans are up to No. 33 in the RPI, they need just five or six wins in their last 11 games to finish in the top 45, and they are in second place in a very strong Sun Belt Conference, which ranks No. 5 in the RPI.

Louisiana moves into “safely in” range after taking a road series at Florida International, giving the Cajuns four straight series wins (including huge sets against Troy and FAU). UL is up to No. 24 in the RPI, and it can finish inside the top 32 with five wins in its last 10 games—a very attainable goal.

FAU is tied for third place with the Cajuns at 12-9, and the Owls hold onto an at-large spot based on their record against the top 50 (7-10, better than any team in the Sun Belt except for Western Kentucky, which is 8-6). The Owls are still No. 38 in the RPI and can remain in the top 45 with seven wins in their last 11 games, per the Needs Report. We think they can do that, and we think the Sun Belt can send four teams to regionals.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/c...t-week-11/

College Field of 64: May 2, Perfect Game

Quote: Then there's the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt is having a terrific spring on the diamond, and actually ranks fifth overall in Conference RPI with Florida Atlantic, South Alabama, Troy and Louisiana all in this week's field of 64. South Alabama could soon enter the mix as a potential NCAA Regional host site. The Jaguars have an excellent RPI of 15, but have an overall resume that can't handle too many hiccups down the stretch. For instance, the Jaguars are 0-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 4-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 12-11 vs. RPI Top 100. Not hosting material at this point, but things could change down the stretch with series remaining against Middle Tennessee State (55), Louisiana (24) and Troy (33).

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8368

Exciting stuff boys! The Sun Belt is a damn strong conference this year.

(05-03-2013 10:07 AM)CajunJuice Wrote:  Baseball America College Stock Report: Week 11 (May 1)

Quote:Sun Belt (4 bids)

SAFELY IN: South Alabama, Louisiana

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Troy, Florida Atlantic

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None

One change from last week: Troy joins our field after taking two of three at Florida Atlantic. The Trojans are up to No. 33 in the RPI, they need just five or six wins in their last 11 games to finish in the top 45, and they are in second place in a very strong Sun Belt Conference, which ranks No. 5 in the RPI.

Louisiana moves into “safely in” range after taking a road series at Florida International, giving the Cajuns four straight series wins (including huge sets against Troy and FAU). UL is up to No. 24 in the RPI, and it can finish inside the top 32 with five wins in its last 10 games—a very attainable goal.

FAU is tied for third place with the Cajuns at 12-9, and the Owls hold onto an at-large spot based on their record against the top 50 (7-10, better than any team in the Sun Belt except for Western Kentucky, which is 8-6). The Owls are still No. 38 in the RPI and can remain in the top 45 with seven wins in their last 11 games, per the Needs Report. We think they can do that, and we think the Sun Belt can send four teams to regionals.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/c...t-week-11/

College Field of 64: May 2, Perfect Game

Quote: Then there's the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt is having a terrific spring on the diamond, and actually ranks fifth overall in Conference RPI with Florida Atlantic, South Alabama, Troy and Louisiana all in this week's field of 64. South Alabama could soon enter the mix as a potential NCAA Regional host site. The Jaguars have an excellent RPI of 15, but have an overall resume that can't handle too many hiccups down the stretch. For instance, the Jaguars are 0-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 4-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 12-11 vs. RPI Top 100. Not hosting material at this point, but things could change down the stretch with series remaining against Middle Tennessee State (55), Louisiana (24) and Troy (33).

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8368

Exciting stuff boys! The Sun Belt is a damn strong conference this year.

Western has no shot. RPI is just too poor.

MT has a chance albeit remote. If they can find a way to go 8-1 over the last three that will put them at 33-23 with an RPI that would move from the 50's to the 30s and get us back over .500 in the league. If we could somehow sweep USA that would give us an 8-7 record against the Top 50. We've been good OOC. Just struggled at times with the Beast that is the SBC this year. 4-1 against the SEC including a win over #2 Vandy.

Would probably take another two or three wins in the tournament to get us in the 35-36 win range. All of which is remote but getting in is plausible with our strong RPI.

I am curious as to why MTSU is able to do so well in the mid-week games. Usually it is the other way around. Example, UTA is first in the WAC because they have a really solid ace. He does not pich in mid week games, where we have struggled in our pitching. Therefore, we sit at 13-6 in the conference with our win over Dallas Baptist tonight, but only 25-21 overall.

I am curious how you guys are finding pitching in the mid-week games but not the weekend series'.