(04-26-2013 11:49 AM)StillJonesing Wrote: (04-26-2013 11:42 AM)Smaug Wrote: Why does the no players excuse fly for Davis and not for Haase?
Oh, and you realize at UAB, it was both Haase's problem and Davis' fault, yes?
How did you get that out of what I said. It's still relative. All you really need to know is Davis improved the program he took over in his first year. Haase did worse than the previous year.
The question isn't whether a coach did worse than the previous year. See Major following Lutz's last team. The question is whether the coach did what was expected of him or, in some cases, whether the coach did better than the previous coach would have. An argument that the old coach had an RPI of 120 and then new coach had an RPI of 160 is completely specious. The idea can be approached in two manners
(A) Would the old coach have had an RPI better than 160? This is a weaker argument because it doesn't account for changed styles of play, player defections, etc.
(B) A two prong approach.
(1) Did the old coach need to leave? This is binary. It was either time for a change or not.
(2) Did the new coach do as well as alternative realistic hires?
Approach B is difficult to quantify, but it is probably the most sound way to approach the issue. Was it time for Lutz or Davis to move on? Yes or no. Did the new coach do as well as alternative realistic hires would have done (considering change of play, new players, etc.)? Yes or no.
If the answer to the second question in approach B is "no," it does not invalidate the answer in question 1. If the old coach needed to be changed, then he needed to be changed. The biggest fallacy in all of sports is that the new guy didn't work so the old guy should've been kept. Whether the old guy should've been kept is an entirely separate inquiry from whether the new guy works out.
It is also a fallacy to look strictly at RPI, etc., in the first 2-3 years and discuss improvement of a new coach outside of the rare case of a coach that is able to sign a bunch of high-end players immediately, etc. New coaches benefit from a more experienced team from the old coach, or the cupboard may be left bare by the old coach, some players may not fit the new system, or there was a lack of an ability to recruit because of a shortened timeframe, etc.