(05-15-2013 11:31 AM)GoodOwl Wrote: Just want to note that I correctly picked the Cardinals to win their division, so far so good.
Man, Braves have been stinking it up since their hot start.
Swoosh, BJ Upton has been terrible at the plate, as you predicted/indicated. Will he ever figure it out or do we have another Dan Uggla on our hands?
you have another dan uggla, except Upton won't walk as much. With his 0-2 (2 K's) so far today, his OPS has officially dropped under .500!! I'm sure he'll get hot at some point, but i'd be shocked if he hits over .220. Watching him against the Giants was a little depressing. With most guys who strike out, the key is to throw junk outside the zone and watch them chase. The scary thing about BJ? The best way to get him out is to throw it IN the strike zone. It seems crazy, but the numbers back me up. His Z-Contact% (percentage of swings at pitches inside the strike zone where contact is made) is an embarrassing 73.7%. To put that in perspective, the horrible Chris Carter who is on pace to strike out over 220 times, has a Z-Contact% of 76%. Upton's overall contact % is 68.8% and as of a few days ago his OPS+ was third worst in baseball behind Jeff Keppinger and Aaron Hicks. Put it simply, BJ has been beyond terrible. But hey, the defensive metrics say he's played a great CF, so you know, glass half full and all that.
A few other notes on what I saw from the Braves:
-Uggla is just absolutely flailing at the plate. he looks like a fish out of water and it's a little pathetic.
-Simmons is gonna be a very good player and will hold down that position for the next 10-12 years, but right now he swings at absolutely everything. His ability to make contact is awesome, which makes him tough to strike out, but it also means he will do everything he can to not walk. There's basically no reason to ever throw him a strike right now.
-Freeman and McCann are definitely the toughest ones to pitch to (although Justin is the best when he makes contact).
-I understand Heyward isn't around and he makes a huge difference
-That 3B platoon? Gimme a freakin break. Johnson and Francisco are hackers of the worst kind and are so easy to pitch to. Any good pitcher should be able to carve them up with little effort. They'll flounder in the playoffs
Overall I've never seen a lineup that made it so easy for observers to create a scouting report for. The holes for the Braves hitters are pretty clear and easy to find. And their penchant for K's makes it very difficult for them to sustain rallies and score runs without HR. I just don't see them as a WS team. Who do you give the ball to in Game 1?