(04-19-2013 06:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote: If this opening posts premises is valid then schools on this bubble are:
SEC
Kentucky (basketball currently saving their @ss)
Vanderbilt
Mississippi State
Big 10
Northwestern
Purdue
ACC
Wake Forest
Big 12
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
PAC 12
Washington State
Oregon State
Arizona State
California
The problem is replacing them with somebody that's better.
As mentioned in the OP, the question was raised after hearing Bowlsby repeat again, essentially, that the Big 12 is choosing quality over quantity. If the viewing model changes considerably in the future, it would not be as much about replacing exiting members as it would be to tighten up the quality of the remaining members. As for your "cut-list" schools, a few comments:
SEC - UK is not going anywhere. They are a flagship, middle of the road revenue and academics, but have, at worst, a top 5 brand in basketball. Vandy would be wise to leave only if they could land in a conference that include Duke and Northwestern. If Notre Dame and Syracuse ever got the gang of elite private schools together to form an uber new Big East type league including those five schools plus Boston College, Wake Forest, Miami, and possibly Baylor/TCU, that would be awesome for them, but I don't see that happening unless major shifts occur.
BIG - NW (see the Vandy argument; almost identical). Purdue - Similar to Auburn in the SEC. They are overlapping markets but strong members all around. Auburn is higher revenue, Purdue is higher academically, and I think they are a wash historically on the field/court. I mentioned in another thread that I would love to see them in the same conference as Pitt, Michigan State, and Va. Tech, however that takes shape, but I don't see the BIG ever adding Pitt or Va. Tech.
ACC - Wake Forest just needs to stay quiet and keep their head down like the "Where's My Stapler" guy in Office Space. Wherever Duke/Syracuse/Boston College are, there shall ye be also. They have been a great rival to Vanderbilt in recent years, and I think any of those private schools would pitch for them if it came down to it. At least they benefit the conference academically, which cannot be said for some of the other conference bottom feeders.
Big 12 - Baylor -They are actually a pretty high revenue school with really good academics, especially compared to the rest of the Big 12. I would love to see them compete regularly with Vanderbilt and Miami. Kansas State is higher revenue than you might think. From what I've seen on revenue and academics, they are very comparable to Arizona State and Texas Tech. You mentioned a few State schools in the PAC list; if the more elite PAC schools ever decide to reduce back to just the flagship/private schools and stick there or possibly add the Big 12 flagship schools, K State would make an excellent addition to a conference with ASU, WSU, Oregon State, Texas Tech, and other comparable schools. Iowa State is low revenue, but they are an AAU member. I feel sorry for them because they are stuck up in no man's land. I assume their wagon is hitched to K-State.
PAC - CAL is not going anywhere under any circumstance. Those three schools, if the situation required it, could make a very strong west coast conference by adding the top half of the MWC along with BYU and maybe some of the non-flagship Big 12 schools if things started breaking that way. I'm still trying wrap my head around the addition of Utah. They are neck and neck with the three state schools academically and much lower revenue than ASU. They are about neck and neck with OSU and WSU in all areas. Not a stelllar addition, but maybe they see growth potential.