http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...ans-primer

Here is a really good breakdown of the SEC Network, which put off its formal announcement of a launch today due to the events in Boston yesterday.

Quote:One sports television source not directly affiliated with the SEC or the deal estimates an eventual worth of around $400 million per year in SEC television revenue from ESPN and CBS (which pays $55 million per year). That'd be $28.5 million per team before factoring in bowl game earnings or NCAA credits.

I think its going to be interesting to see what happens in the Cincinnati market with the SEC network. Will it be an extra pay channel our will the the proximity to Kentucky make this one of the few of state markets with the channel on a lower tier of programming.

This should free up good ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU time slots for the ACC and the American Athletic Conference.

IMO, the details reflect the underlying problem the SEC has, namely that it signed a deal with ESPN and CBS for 15 years back in 2008, and that critical fact puts a very firm cap on their ability to make really huge money from this "SEC network". $28.5 million per school sounds great, but the B1G will soon be making more than $40 million per school from its network, because its commissioner very wisely decided not to tie itself to any existing network (ESPN, CBS, etc.) the last time around, except to have FOX as a partner in the B1G network, rather than as a signee. Bottom line is that no matter what other schools the SEC adds, and no matter how its relations with CBS and ESPN are restructured, those two networks are only going to let the SEC recoup a little of the tremendous value that they gained when they signed the top football conference to a 15 year deal in 2008.

And IMO, this situation is an existential threat to the SEC versus the B1G. I could imagine a scenario in the not-too-distant future, when the B1G could pick off northern SEC members like Kentucky, Missouri, or Tennessee by waving $45 million a year in front of them, compared to $28 million from the SEC.

(04-16-2013 10:02 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  I think its going to be interesting to see what happens in the Cincinnati market with the SEC network. Will it be an extra pay channel our will the the proximity to Kentucky make this one of the few of state markets with the channel on a lower tier of programming.

This should free up good ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU time slots for the ACC and the American Athletic Conference.

No, SEC will just get more slots. With 7 games a week, that covers all 3 time slots for their network, 1 for CBS and 3 for ESPN/2/U. 1 of those games was Tier 3 syndicated or PPV before and 1 is the extra games from teams 13 & 14.

The 40 million that folks talk about with the Big Ten is total conference revenue, not just TV money. Right now, Big Ten pulls in about 16.5 million in tv money. with the other 7-8 million in other stuff like hoops units, bowl money, conference tourney money, etc. Big Ten and SEC are going to be 1 and 1a in money for sure. Your 28.5 vs 45 is truly apples vs oranges.

Also got to remember the SEC deal with CBS is now 5 years old- so only 10 years to go. Really only a 7-8 year period where the Big Ten would "dominiate" before the SEC swings back with their tier 1 games.

(04-16-2013 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the details reflect the underlying problem the SEC has, namely that it signed a deal with ESPN and CBS for 15 years back in 2008, and that critical fact puts a very firm cap on their ability to make really huge money from this "SEC network". $28.5 million per school sounds great, but the B1G will soon be making more than $40 million per school from its network, because its commissioner very wisely decided not to tie itself to any existing network (ESPN, CBS, etc.) the last time around, except to have FOX as a partner in the B1G network, rather than as a signee. Bottom line is that no matter what other schools the SEC adds, and no matter how its relations with CBS and ESPN are restructured, those two networks are only going to let the SEC recoup a little of the tremendous value that they gained when they signed the top football conference to a 15 year deal in 2008.

And IMO, this situation is an existential threat to the SEC versus the B1G. I could imagine a scenario in the not-too-distant future, when the B1G could pick off northern SEC members like Kentucky, Missouri, or Tennessee by waving $45 million a year in front of them, compared to $28 million from the SEC.

A few points if I may:

1. The 28.5 is the base to which the bowl, playoff, and NCAA tourney money is added. The SEC is starting at about 34 - 36 all things considered. The Big 10 projections are for all income sources per team.

2. The SEC is covering it's own start up costs and spreading those out over the first few years thereby reducing the initial payout to 28.5 as a base.

3. The SEC will earn more should they add a couple of good markets to get to 16. The two they are looking toward the most would net each SEC team an additional 3 plus million.

4. The true carriage payout will not be known for a couple of years as the article points out. After the start up the payouts will be more dependent upon carriage than upon Tier 1 and 2 contracts.

5. There are still look in clauses that keep the SEC from being locked into set numbers that no longer remain competitive. Those clauses will be exercised.

6. The CBS report (I guess they saw an opportunity to scoop ESPN with the delay and took it.) points out that the plans for the SECN is for it to serve the greater Southeast in sports coverage. That could mean that Sunbelt games, or possibly ACC games, might be in the lineup. The report also stated that it would stretch from the New York market to the West. I'll look forward to seeing the details on that, and on finding out if the ACC is going to piggyback on any of this.

7. Slive is a consummate contract lawyer. I think I'll trust his judgement on this matter. He didn't receive an Ivy League education with a JD from Virginia to become the premier conference commissioner of the premier sports conference just to get his lunch handed to him by anybody, let alone the opinions of a chat room posters.

(04-16-2013 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The 40 million that folks talk about with the Big Ten is total conference revenue, not just TV money. Right now, Big Ten pulls in about 16.5 million in tv money. with the other 7-8 million in other stuff like hoops units, bowl money, conference tourney money, etc. Big Ten and SEC are going to be 1 and 1a in money for sure. Your 28.5 vs 45 is truly apples vs oranges.

Also got to remember the SEC deal with CBS is now 5 years old- so only 10 years to go. Really only a 7-8 year period where the Big Ten would "dominiate" before the SEC swings back with their tier 1 games.

With the growth of the B1G network and the way these deals are structured, i don't see how the B1G doesn't end up making at least $10m - $15 million more per year than the SEC over the next decade. It already makes almost $5 million more (as of last year), B1G network revenue is growing about 20% per year, and with a new deal in 2016 that advantage will jump.

That kind of gap could lead to a B1G raid of the SEC.

(04-16-2013 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The 40 million that folks talk about with the Big Ten is total conference revenue, not just TV money. Right now, Big Ten pulls in about 16.5 million in tv money. with the other 7-8 million in other stuff like hoops units, bowl money, conference tourney money, etc. Big Ten and SEC are going to be 1 and 1a in money for sure. Your 28.5 vs 45 is truly apples vs oranges.

Also got to remember the SEC deal with CBS is now 5 years old- so only 10 years to go. Really only a 7-8 year period where the Big Ten would "dominiate" before the SEC swings back with their tier 1 games.

Great point...

(04-16-2013 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The 40 million that folks talk about with the Big Ten is total conference revenue, not just TV money. Right now, Big Ten pulls in about 16.5 million in tv money. with the other 7-8 million in other stuff like hoops units, bowl money, conference tourney money, etc. Big Ten and SEC are going to be 1 and 1a in money for sure. Your 28.5 vs 45 is truly apples vs oranges.

Also got to remember the SEC deal with CBS is now 5 years old- so only 10 years to go. Really only a 7-8 year period where the Big Ten would "dominiate" before the SEC swings back with their tier 1 games.

With the growth of the B1G network and the way these deals are structured, i don't see how the B1G doesn't end up making at least $10m - $15 million more per year than the SEC over the next decade. It already makes almost $5 million more (as of last year), B1G network revenue is growing about 20% per year, and with a new deal in 2016 that advantage will jump.

That kind of gap could lead to a B1G raid of the SEC.

Which could be easily stayed by a Grant-of-Rights tied to this new network, much the same as the B1G has a GoR tied to the BTN.

(04-16-2013 11:24 AM)JRsec Wrote:  7. Slive is a consummate contract lawyer. I think I'll trust his judgement on this matter. He didn't receive an Ivy League education with a JD from Virginia to become the premier conference commissioner of the premier sports conference just to get his lunch handed to him by anybody, let alone the opinions of a chat room posters.

The ACC and SEC were the two conferences that signed long-term deals between 2008-2009 that were hailed at the time but now were obviously big mistakes. The cost to the ACC has been the loss of Maryland and severe vulnerability to future poaching by the B1G, SEC, and maybe Big 12 too. In short, signing that deal might have been a fatal mistake for the ACC, because it has locked in that conference to a media revenue stream that is clearly inadequate for a P5 conference.

Likewise, Slive's decision to sign the 2008 deal might prove to be fatal to the SEC. Slive has been a fantastic commissioner in may ways, but it is clear as day that the 2008 deal means that the SEC is currently being paid nowhere near its "open market value" and will not be so paid for the next 10 years, while the B1G's much smarter decision to partner with FOX on the BTN means it is getting paid probably more than what it is really worth, thanks to free-rider capture of cable subscriptions.

I am not sure what Slive can do about it at this point. This new SEC Network is probably the best that can be done, but IMO the numbers do not add up to anywhere near what the B1G can offer, and the B1G is hungry to expand.

If you think any SEC schools have any interest in playing up north, pick up the phone and call them.

There is no exit fee to leave the SEC.

Saying the Big 10 is going to poach someone like Tennessee is quite possibly the most outlandish thing I have read on the Internet. The people in Knoxville will raze Neyland stadium to the ground before going to the Big 10.

(04-16-2013 11:33 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The 40 million that folks talk about with the Big Ten is total conference revenue, not just TV money. Right now, Big Ten pulls in about 16.5 million in tv money. with the other 7-8 million in other stuff like hoops units, bowl money, conference tourney money, etc. Big Ten and SEC are going to be 1 and 1a in money for sure. Your 28.5 vs 45 is truly apples vs oranges.

Also got to remember the SEC deal with CBS is now 5 years old- so only 10 years to go. Really only a 7-8 year period where the Big Ten would "dominiate" before the SEC swings back with their tier 1 games.

With the growth of the B1G network and the way these deals are structured, i don't see how the B1G doesn't end up making at least $10m - $15 million more per year than the SEC over the next decade. It already makes almost $5 million more (as of last year), B1G network revenue is growing about 20% per year, and with a new deal in 2016 that advantage will jump.

That kind of gap could lead to a B1G raid of the SEC.

Which could be easily stayed by a Grant-of-Rights tied to this new network, much the same as the B1G has a GoR tied to the BTN.

Yes, but when schools see that much bigger money can be had in another conference, they tend to be reticent about signing a GoR.

(04-16-2013 11:36 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If you think any SEC schools have any interest in playing up north, pick up the phone and call them.

There is no exit fee to leave the SEC.

I am well aware of that. But if you think Kentucky admins, or admins at other SEC schools, won't think twice if the B1G comes calling with $15m - $20m more per year than what the SEC can offer, well ....

Like I said, call up Kentucky and tell them how much they'll enjoy playing Iowa, Michigan State and Rutgers.

I'm sure they'll at least save the call recording for the Christmas Party

(04-16-2013 11:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:36 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If you think any SEC schools have any interest in playing up north, pick up the phone and call them.

There is no exit fee to leave the SEC.

I am well aware of that. But if you think Kentucky admins, or admins at other SEC schools, won't think twice if the B1G comes calling with $15m - $20m more per year than what the SEC can offer, well ....

I think what 10th is saying here is....
BRING IT B1G. It will embarrasing for you. Apparently they can't even persuade another ACC team. Don't try to break into Fort Knox.

Well, if your talking about big 10 grabbing sec school's, I do like the concept big 10 jumping to 60 with six divisions of 10 and pretty much taking all the good targets. In that case, they could have an 8 team playoff of 6 division winners and 2 at large bids. It might be more practical with 40 teams and 4 divisions of 10, original big 10, original pac 10, 10 team division built around texas and a 10 team division built around penn state with 4 team playoff of division winners. In that format, the sec would maybe jump to 24 with 4 team playoff. Than you would have a final bowl game of the sec playoff champ vs big 10 playoff champ. Now if the big 10 were target sec school's, i think they aim for kentucky and maybe UGA or UF but don't see any of that happening. I do think there is some comparison though with acc school's being placed in the big 10 or sec. Its true that the $ is better for these acc school's in the big 10 or sec but like sec school's jumping to the big 10, money isn't everything, so the school's won't move.

(04-16-2013 11:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:33 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-16-2013 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The 40 million that folks talk about with the Big Ten is total conference revenue, not just TV money. Right now, Big Ten pulls in about 16.5 million in tv money. with the other 7-8 million in other stuff like hoops units, bowl money, conference tourney money, etc. Big Ten and SEC are going to be 1 and 1a in money for sure. Your 28.5 vs 45 is truly apples vs oranges.

Also got to remember the SEC deal with CBS is now 5 years old- so only 10 years to go. Really only a 7-8 year period where the Big Ten would "dominiate" before the SEC swings back with their tier 1 games.

With the growth of the B1G network and the way these deals are structured, i don't see how the B1G doesn't end up making at least $10m - $15 million more per year than the SEC over the next decade. It already makes almost $5 million more (as of last year), B1G network revenue is growing about 20% per year, and with a new deal in 2016 that advantage will jump.

That kind of gap could lead to a B1G raid of the SEC.

Which could be easily stayed by a Grant-of-Rights tied to this new network, much the same as the B1G has a GoR tied to the BTN.

Yes, but when schools see that much bigger money can be had in another conference, they tend to be reticent about signing a GoR.

But it's very likely that a GoR is signed in order to even get this SEC Netowrk going, much like there was for the BTN and for the XII's ESPN renewal. No GoR = No SEC Network. Unless the B1G has invites in hand now, they probably can't issue them later.

Is the GoR binding? seems the big 10 doesn't think so if Kansas is really a target.

(04-16-2013 11:53 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Is the GoR binding? seems the big 10 doesn't think so if Kansas is really a target.

Either that or the Big Ten is thinking further ahead than some observers are. If they consider Kansas as available toward the end of the current Big12 GOR, that's well within their decision horizon.

(04-16-2013 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  And IMO, this situation is an existential threat to the SEC versus the B1G. I could imagine a scenario in the not-too-distant future, when the B1G could pick off northern SEC members like Kentucky, Missouri, or Tennessee by waving $45 million a year in front of them, compared to $28 million from the SEC.

First, as multiple people have covered, you are comparing total payout to media payout, which is a whole orange to orange slices comparison, and second, when somebody starts talking about anybody raiding either the SEC or the Big Ten ~ even the other one ~ that's a strong sign that castles are being built in the sky.