Coming off a successful 4-game road trip (now 10-4 on the road for the season), the Baseball Owls face the always difficult 2-week period leading up to Finals (and the associated academic pressures and deadlines)...but at least this year they have the benefit of not having to leave Houston during this period, with the next five games at The Reck (this weekend against Central Florida with the usual 6:30pm CT, 2:00pm and 1:00pm start times, followed by back-to-back midweekers against Texas Tech), and then the critical CUSA matchup across town at UH. This is the time when we need the upperclassmen to step up big time and lead, as the Freshmen will be experiencing the trying balancing act of play competitive baseball while preoccupied with academic issues for the very first time. A strong showing over the next eight games, including continuing our weekend series winning streak, will go a long ways toward capturing that 18th consecutive conference championship, and setting us up for yet another hard-charging stretch run after returning from the break. Let's make it happen.

Though we have posted an outstanding 15 - 4 record over the past month, we have not won three games in a row since conference play began four weeks ago. It's due time we break this recurring pattern of 2 wins followed by a loss...starting Friday, in what is shaping up to be another elite pitching matchup between Austin Kubitza and UCF's Ben Lively. Lively leads CUSA in ERA (0.61) and is second to Kubitza in strikeouts. The offense needs to find a way to break out of it's season-long, run-scoring rut. Hopefully, the return of Shane Hoelscher into the everyday lineup will be a welcome boost. However, we still need to cut down on our strikeout frequency, and do a better job of making contact with runners in scoring position and less than two outs. Pitching and defense continues to lead the way, but we need the offense to be both more efficient and consistent.

Despite boasting C-USA's leading hitter (Chris Taladay) and top pitcher (Ben Lively), the UCF Knights come limping into Reckling Park, road weary (this weekend's series climaxes an 8-game road trip-- by far their longest of the season) and having lost their last six games. Their overall record has fallen to just 18 - 16 (4-5 in CUSA, 4-8 on the road, 1-4 vs. Top 100, and only 10-11 vs. Top 100 - 200). And due to such a weak out-of-conference schedule, their national rankings have slipped to #159 ISR, #197 RPI and #215 Strength of Schedule (vs. #40, #57 and #95, respectively, for the Owls). Their lone quality win all season was against #83 UConn at a home-hosted tournament the second weekend of the season. They have managed to remain over .500 thanks to wins against #234 Siena x 3, #221 Winthrop x 3, #284 Florida A&M x 2, #197 Jacksonville x 2 and #184 Columbia x 2-- all at home, as well as a road sweep over #149 UAB to open CUSA play. They lost 2 of 3 at home against USM, were swept by Memphis last weekend, and are coming off a bad 9-3 loss Wednesday at South Florida. Here's their schedule/results over their first 34 games...

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/schedule/UCF

Though the Knights lost their two best offensive players (Ronnie Richardson, DJ Hicks) and their bullpen's co-closers (Roman Madrid, Joe Rogers) from last year's squad, they were still expected to contend thanks to the return of their entire weekend rotation (Ben Lively, Chris Matulis, Eric Skoglund, Brian Adkins), as well as several other upperclass returning offensive starters (most notably, Jr Chris Taladay and RS Sr Erik Hempe, who was granted a 6th year of elibility after sitting out last season with an injury). Unfortunately, though Taladay, Hempe, Lively, Matulis an Skoglund have all met or exceeded preseason expectations, only a couple other players have stepped up to become major contributors (DH Parker Webster and Fr RHP reliever Zac Favre).

Offensively, the UCF is hitting just .256/.347/.379 as a team (vs. .273/.364/.345 for the Owls), with 19 HRs, and averaging just under 3 extrabase hits and 5.1 runs per game. Somewhat surprising they are averaging 0.4 more runs/game than Rice with a much lower AVG/OBP, especially since they are anything but a small ball-oriented offense (with only 16 sac bunts in 34 games, and 29-48 SB proficiency). Yes, they have hit for better power numbers than the Owls, but their competition has been considerably weaker and they play in a much more hitter-friendly home park. Aside from the fact that the Knights have just 3 players hitting above .290 (and no one else hitting above .273), their biggest issue offensively is that they are an aggressive, free-swinging team that has walked 16 fewer times than Rice, but struck out 49 more times in the same number of games, and against even worse competition. Taladay and Hempe are the only players with OBP above .375. Hempe is the team leader in walks with just 18. Consequently, the Knights are another team against whom it makes sense to lead with the off-speed and breaking stuff. Work their aggressiveness against them.

With the exception of catcher (where Taladay has been filling in of late since Breen has been struggling so much at the plate), UCF has been going with a pretty set, upperclass-laden, everyday lineup (with YTD stats provided)...

1. CF JoMarcos Woods (So, Left-handed batter): .273/.359/.364, 1 HRs, 7 doubles/triples, 16 RBIs, 7-10 SBs
2. LF Erik Barber (So, Right-handed): .179/.324/.321, 1 HR, 9 RBIs, 3-5 SBs in just 28 ABs
Jeramy Matos (Sr, R): .187/.319/.467, 6 HRs, 16 RBIs, 27 Ks in 75 ABs
3. RF Erik Hempe (RS Sr, R): .306/.405/.452, 2 HRs, 11 doubles/triples, 23 RBIs, 5 sac flies, 4-7 SBs
4. C/DH Chris Taladay (Sr, L): .375/.441/.500, 2 HRs, 11 doubles, 32 RBIs, 5-8 SBs
5. DH/LF Parker Webster (Jr, R): .297/.373/.407, 1 HR, 7 doubles, 18 RBIs
C Ryan Breen (Sr, Swith Hitter): .138/.250/.191, 5 doubles, 5 RBIs
6. 1B James Vasquez (So, L): .258/.347/.430, 4 HRs, 10 doubles, 19 RBIs
7. SS Tommy Williams (So, R): .237/.318/.344, 8 doubles/triples, 6 RBIs, 36 Ks in 93 ABs
8. 3B/2B Austin Johnston (Sr, R): .246/.348/.390, 2 HRs, 10 doubles/triples, 14 RBIs, 10 HBP, 33 Ks in 118 ABs
9. 2B Brett Gordon (Jr, R): .400/.400/.400, 1 RBI in just 10 ABs (but has played in 3 of last 4 games)he

Clearly, we cannot let Taladay or Hempe beat us. I would rather take our chances against anyone else in their lineup.

Defensively, UCF has posted a very respectable .967 fielding percentage, with no player having more than 8 errors (SS Williams). Opposing teams have chosen not to run on them (only 20-31 in SB attempts), most likely due to their southpaw-laden pitching staff, as well as the 14 baserunners that have been picked off (including 4 by Ben Lively). Our runners should be cautious this weekend. However, their catchers have allowed 9 passed balls and a very high (34) number of wild pitches, and their infield has turned just 22 double plays (vs. 42 for the Owls).

Again, on the mound, the Knights overall stats are solid: 3.64 ERA, .253 BAA, 2:1 strikeout:walk ratio, 7 Ks/game. However, one has to believe they are at least somewhat inflated by their #200+ ranked Strength of Schedule. Also, upon closer scrutiny, one realizes that only two pitchers-- staff ace Ben Lively and stud Freshman set-up man Zac Favre-- have ERAs under 3.70 and BAAs under .250. The remainder of the staff have been mediocre, at best, against weak opposition...

Ben Lively (Jr, RHP): 8 starts, 5-3, 59.1 IP, 0.61 EREA, .192 BAA, 14 BBs, 60 Ks, only 6 xtrabase hits
Chris Matulis (RS Sr, LHP): 12 app, 4 starts, 3-2, 1 save, 46.0 IP, 3.72 ERA, .259 BAA, 21 BBs, 7 HBP, 38 Ks
Eric Skoglund (So, LHP): 7 starts, 1-3, 39.0 IP, 5.08 ERA, .277 BAA, 16 BBs, 4 HBP, 19 Ks

Spencer Davis (RS So, RHP): 16 app, 3-1, 3 saves, 20.0 IP, 4.95 ERA, .276 BAA, 10 BBs, 14 Ks
Zac Favre (Fr, RHP): 19 app, 2-0, 1 save, 33.2 IP, 1.60 ERA, .139 BAA, 11 BBs, 6 HBP, 7 WP, 40 Ks
Danny Davis (Jr, RHP): 10 app, 6 starts, 3-1, 32.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, .254 BAA, 12 BBs, 24 Ks
Brian Adkins (Sr, LHP): 9 app, 7 starts, 1-5, 39.1 IP, 5.26 ERA, .302 BAA, 5 BBs, 21 Ks

Their closer, former Texas A&M RHP Spencer Davis was shelled by South Florida for 5 runs in 1.2 IP on Wednesday, and saw his ERA go up by 2 runs in the process. Though UCF's two elite pitchers are both right-handed, we're going to see a steady diet of southpaw pitching on Saturday (Matulis) and Sunday (Skoglund).

Here are UCF's individual/team stats over their first 34 games...

http://www.ucfathletics.com/sports/m-bas...mcume.html

Just one week until the end of classes. Semester-ending term papers and projects coming due, along with the academic pressures over Final exams, always makes for a very difficult stretch of games leading up to Dead Week and the 10-day break from competitive baseball. Somehow the team needs to find the requisite energy, focus and aggressiveness to continue winning on the field. This Rice team has shown a never-say-die, never quit, will to win attitude as it has frequently stolen victory from the claws of defeat with late game heroics. It's inner strength will once again be tested over the next 8 games. Let's pass that test in flying colors and head into the break on a roll. Go Owls!


Eric Sorenson ranked UCF #25 in his preseason countdown, and picked them to finish 2nd in the conference...
http://www.collegebaseballtoday.com/2013...nt-page-1/

Quote:25- UCF (45-17)
Coach Terry Rooney has built a monster next to DisneyWorld as the Knights continue to climb. Staff horse Ben Lively (9-2, 3.00) has a brigade of lefties with him including starters Chris Matulis (7-0, 3.68) and Brian Adkins (3-6, 4.78). Though big sticks D.J. Hicks and Ronnie Richardson are gone, senior Chris Taladay (.298-5-49) and OF Eric Hempe (.307-7-31 in 2011) are good building blocks.

Quote:- UCF (45-17, 16-8)
2012 ISR: 33

Starters Returning: 4
Weekend Starters: 3
Mid-Week Starters: 1
Key Relievers (15+inns.): 1

All Conference Candidates:
RHP Ben Lively (9-2, 3.00)
LHP Eric Skoglund (5-3, 3.21)
LHP Chris Matulis (7-0, 3.68)
3B Chris Taladay (.298-5-49)
DH Jeramy Matos (.276-5-20)

NOTES:
- The Knights keep making strong steps in the Terry Rooney regime. Last year, they increased their win total into the 40s, came within a game of the CUSA crown and then made it further than any other conference team in the Big Dance, playing for the Regional title in Coral Gables.

- As the season went on the Knights tended to give up some big run totals, including surrendering 30 runs in their final three games of the year vs. Stony Brook. Roman Madrid and Joe Rogers were great saves guys out of the pen, but they both moved on after last season. The rest of the arms corps needs to step things up significantly in 2013.

- To that point, the good news is that the weekend rotation returns RHP Ben Lively, the Friday ace, and will also have lefties Chris Matulis and Brian Adkins (3-6, 4.78). Between those three hurler the Knights will have 39 starts on the mound coming back to the roster. Also, LHP Eric Skoglund was a Freshman All American last year, starting eight games and making 17 appearances. He should reach even more of a comfort zone this season.

- A newcomer worth watching is former Texas A&M RHP Spencer Davis, who spent last season at Howard College. Davis, who was drafted in the 35th round of last June’s draft, throws around 92-93mph on his heater and could be a versatile arm for the bullpen. OF Bo Decker was a 39th round pick and brings a projectable 6’2 frame to the meadow and at the plate.

- Getting back the services of OF Eric Hempe (.307-7-29) couldn’t have come at a better time since there isn’t a single player returning with starting experience that hit .300 or better last season. With D.J. Hicks and Ronnie Richardson flying the coup, Hempe will provide some much-needed pop with his 15 doubles and seven home runs he swatted in 2011.

- Also watch out for 1B James Vasquez, who hit .418-12-42 in 32 games last summer in the Cal Ripken League. Vasquez was just .276-0-17 as a freshman last season but looks like he may be ready to blossom this spring

Kendall Rogers picked UCF to finish 5th in CUSA, with 3B/DH Chris Taladay picked on his preseason all-conference team...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=7957

Quote:* UCF has accumulated some legitimate talent over the past few seasons, and the program is destined to just continue getting better with the quality of players they're attracting. However, this could be an interesting year for Rooney's club. Though this team looks very good from a pitching standpoint, the offense is a concern, at least early in the season with the departures of the top four hitters, including big-time hitter D.J. Hicks. Still, the Knights feel good about third baseman Chris Taladay leading the way this spring. Meanwhile, veteran outfielder Erik Hempe returns after being granted a sixth year of eligibility, while sophomore first baseman James Vasquez had a terrific fall and is expected to take a big step forward ... This team won't have a problem pitching with an outstanding rotation including right-hander Ben Lively and left-handers Eric Skoglund and Chris Matulis. While Matulis is more of a crafty type of pitcher, Lively is consistently in the low 90s with his FB, up to 95. Skoglund has a big frame at 6-foot-7, and sits 89-91 with his FB. Keep a close eye on JUCO transfer righty Spencer Davis, who will close, and has a huge arm with a FB up to 93 and a good slider in tow. Meanwhile, righty Zac Favre is another premium arm to watch with a FB up to 87-89, also a hard, effective, slider.

Baseball America also picked UCF to finish 5th in the conference this year, and considered Sr RHP Ben Lively as the 5th best prospect in CUSA (just behind Kukbitza and ahead of both Simms and Stephens)...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2...iew-14668/

Here are the UCF game notes for the series...

http://www.ucfathletics.com/sports/m-bas...13aab.html

...very interesting that Coach Rooney has elected to hold back their ace and leading CUSA pitcher, Ben Lively, until Saturday afternoon vs. Jordan Stephens, and will instead go with Sr LHP Chris Matulis vs. Kubitza on Friday night. Hmmm, it's not as if Jordan Stephens is not up for a tight pitchers duel. In fact, while one can argue that AK and Simms have pitched more lights out on occassion this year, Stephens has probably been our most consistent pitcher-- week-in, week-out; he's yet to not give us a quality start.

Hopefully, our right-handed batters are prepared to adjust their approach against Matulis, who is your prototypical finesse, soft-tossing left-hander. If I recall correctly, he also has a very high leg kick (ala CSC) and has a deceptive delivery. Very difficult on left-handed hitters to pick up the ball before it's already upon him. He has, however, struggled with his control at times this year. Let's be patient, and be willing to go the other way against him, rather than pulling balls into the ground.

Kendall just posted an indepth and scouting report on UCF's staff ace (and Saturday starter this week), Ben Lively, as part of his weekend preview...

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8281

Quote:Pitching prowess: Lively living good at UCF

Central Florida head coach Terry Rooney always saw big-time potential in right-handed pitcher Ben Lively. Yes, even when Lively walked 34 batters and had a 5.05 earned-run average as a freshman for the Knights, or when he finished last season with a 3.00 ERA, but also accumulated 45 walks to go with 84 strikeouts.

For Rooney, it was all about patience with Lively. He knew with time, Lively would transform from a pitcher with command issues to one with poise and accuracy. That hunch two years ago has paid off this season, as Lively is putting together a campaign to remember, and helped himself become one of the nation's elite prospects for the upcoming MLB draft. "He's having an All-American type of year for us. You look at his numbers and Ben has always been good, but he was pretty inconsistent last year," Rooney said. "He had a great summer at the Cape Cod League and has just evolved from a maturity and command standpoint so far this season.

"His stuff has always been good, the big difference is he just has smoothed things over a bit," he continued. "HIs command has gotten a little better and he has been dominant. The interesting thing about Ben is that even when he racked up those high walk totals the past couple of years, he still held teams to low batting averages. It's all coming together now."

As you might expect, Lively's progressions are most notable in his stat line so far this season. Lively has had some intense bouts with elite prospects such as Jacksonville's Chris Anderson and Memphis left-handed pitcher Sam Moll. And on both occasions, Lively rose to the occasion and held his own. For the season, Lively has an outstanding 0.61 ERA, which ranks high nationally, in 59 1/3 innings of work. He also has struck out 60 and kept his walk total low at 14, while teams are hitting him at just a .192 clip.

"He has really pitched in the clutch for us this season. He's one of the greatest competitors I've ever coached," Rooney said. "From a comparison standpoint, I'd put him about in the same boat at Jeff Samardzija in terms of competitive. Jeff was as tough as it gets, and Ben ranks right up there in terms of the best competitors I've ever had."

Lively, who moves from the Friday night role to the Saturday spot this weekend against Rice, has made a big jump from a prospect standpoint. He entered the season ranked as the No. 130 overall prospect for the upcoming MLB draft. Now, Lively is expected to go anywhere from 40-55 overall, perhaps even higher.

Stuff-wise, Lively has added a tick to his fastball this season. He's consistently flashing a four-pitch mix, including a fastball that he works anywhere from 88-93, with the ability to touch some 94s. He also has made significant improvements with his slider, while the upper-70s changeup also continues to get sharper.

"A lot of Ben's situation this season is that it's not necessarily that his pitches have gotten that much better, it's just that he's commanding those good pitches better," he said. "His slider has really been a wipeout pitch this season. That slider, for sure, has taken a big, big step forward."

Beginning this weekend against Rice, the Knights will need Lively to be better than ever. The Knights have just an 18-16 overall record, 4-5 mark in Conference USA action. Most importantly, the Knights have an RPI of 197 and need some major help and contributions down the stretch to reach the NCAA postseason. Not all is well with the Knights at this point in the season, but Lively isn't one of them. He's finally what Rooney thought he'd be.

"The one thing we continue to talk about as we head down the stretch is just being efficient. We need him, especially, to be able to go deep into games each weekend," he said. "He needs to make sure he gets into advantageous counts. He's done a great job of not letting external things bother him this season. Hopefully that continues."

Stitchhead's weekend update included a blurb on our series, which he somehow considers the 7th best of the weekend (probably because it's UCF's "last stand")...

http://www.collegebaseballtoday.com/2013...cardinals/

Quote:7- UCF (18-15, 4-5) at No. 18 RICE (24-11, 6-3)

This looks like the Knights’ last stand (… which sounds like a good premise for a movie… hmmm). UCF has been a bit of a surprise this season, only it’s in a bad way. Chris Taladay has held up his end of the bargain, hitting .379 and 32RBI. The rest of the team is dragging down the team average to .259. They’ll be going up against the 2nd-best pitching (2.82ERA, loop-best 281Ks) and top defending (.978 fielding) team in CUSA in the Owls. Also, keep an eye on how this one turns out because Rice has played five one-run games in their last six. UCF, you’ve GOT to make a move here.

I thought tonight's game was on FCS? DirecTV doesn't show the listing.

(04-12-2013 03:24 PM)13thOwl Wrote:  I thought tonight's game was on FCS? DirecTV doesn't show the listing.

You're not going to be at Reckling?

Yes, it is on Fox College Sports.

(04-12-2013 03:28 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2013 03:24 PM)13thOwl Wrote:  I thought tonight's game was on FCS? DirecTV doesn't show the listing.

You're not going to be at Reckling?

Yes, it is on Fox College Sports.

I will be there, I just wanted to watch it again after I got home tonight...

I couldn't find it on Time Warner cable last night.

Too late for this weekend, but the Friday night Rice-UCF game was on channel 433 on Time-Warner Austin. It was listed as "Fox Sports - Pacific" and is available only on the sports tier.