(04-04-2013 12:37 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Troy has been near the top of it's conference for the last few years. They've been to bowl games, they have a large alumni base and haven't ONCE been mentioned as an expansion candidate. Winning our conference, if your conference is bad, isn't nearly enough.

Interesting benchmark. They beat the SNOT out of us a few years back.

IIRC, Troy is about a low as you get academically in FBS (radio repair school?) AND it is in a hard-to-get-to and not-very-interesting place.

UCF combines almost as good as Troy results with Orlando and gets a prom date.

(04-04-2013 11:23 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I generally agree with MA here, and while I get what 40 is saying and he makes good points, I think I would say it differently from them both.

UTSA has greater potential to draw in Houston than Tulsa or SMU do, no matter how good they are. That MAY be true of UNT as well (can't say for certain yet). La Tech I don't think travels well, but they aren't much of a drop off... Western Kentucky and others don't help.

So from a standpoint of total butts in the seats, I THINK it is at worst a wash.... however, as 40 rightly points out... the cache of beating UNT is nothing compared to beating Tulsa... so our own fanbase isn't going to be quite as energized... and that is a problem... My problem with MA's description of "winning" is that being ranked number 100 and beating teams ranked below you doesn't really interest anyone outside of that small group, which almost by definition is wither getting left behind themselves, or going to pass you. UTSA could EASILY pass us... as could NT. The ONLY team we beat last year with a winning record was SMU... and we could win 9-10 games this year without beating anyone ranked above 90 or so. You can't merely "win"... you must have QUALITY wins. THIS is the TCU/Boise model

Whether we go about it using La Tech's model of anyone, anywhere... taking in big money games and using it to get better... or whether we go about trying to win CUSA and then get a little better as a result and then pick off bottom dwellers of the P5, and get better and then beat the middle of a P5 and get better is a matter of debate... but merely "winning", especially when that is defined as it seems to have been by beating absolutely nobody of mention while losing, often badly to teams of even marginal note is absolutely worthless in terms of moving forward.

We can't merely win lots of games this year. We have to win MANY games convincingly. We have to beat Kansas handily, and they STILL have to get up off the bottom of their conference for it to mean anything. Beating A&M would do it... but that is honestly the only real team of note (and unfortunately they are a VERY significant note) on our schedule. 12-1 losing only to A&M might STILL have us playing a 6-6 team in our bowl game... so we have to beat the ever loving SNOT out of that team. We can't lose, or win close... as it would only serve to prove that an undefeated non-p5 team would barely finish in the top half of an AQ conference. I know it's a tough task... but this is where we are.

I think you may have missed the part where I said we have to win some games we are not supposed to against P5 competition, and we need to make noise nationally somehow. I agree that just winning against our lousy schedule isn't going to do it.

No, I caught it.... which is why I said I generally agreed with you... I would just say it differently.

(04-04-2013 12:37 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  RU and I were just looking at some data that supports my comment....
Troy has been near the top of it's conference for the last few years. They've been to bowl games, they have a large alumni base and haven't ONCE been mentioned as an expansion candidate. Winning our conference, if your conference is bad, isn't nearly enough.
Second, the bowl games themselves (and this is BEFORE the downgrade in quality of CUSA) pairs the CUSA Champion against typically a 7-5 or 6-6 team from an AQ conference... remembering that quite often, 3-4 of their 6 or 7 victories are against teams NOT in their conference... and 3/4 of most AQ conference go to bowl games... That means that if you are regularly going to the liberty bowl and BEATING that team, you are showing yourself to be PERHAPS worthy of being in the bottom half of an AQ conference... and if you lose, then you are AT BEST in the bottom quarter. Note that despits 3 bowls, we've yet to play one AQ team in a bowl because we haven't been deemed worthy of playing (or earned) even a 2-6 or 3-5 in the AQ conference team.
Our 2 victories over AQ teams have BOTH come down to the very last play of the game.
THAT is the clearest indicator of where we are... and why we aren't wanted.

In the runup to the New Orleans Bowl, a Troy poster came on here and described the school as "The University of Phoenix with a football team." That's pretty accurate, and probably says a lot about why they are not more attractive. The football stadium used to be named for alumnus Richard Scrushy. They've managed a few signature wins against big boys, and more than a few impressive hang-close efforts. Their big problem in terms of results is that they have been very inconsistent, capable of leading Florida State into the fourth quarter one week and getting blown out by Middle Tennessee the next. That's pretty typical of renegade programs, of which they are one. Their large enrollment and alumni base are deceptive. They have a huge online enrollment, and last I checked they are the largest provider of online/correspondence courses to the military. They have probably thousands of students and alumni who have never seen the school, maybe never been within 1000 miles of it.

No, we're not going to get much attention to beating Middle Tennessee (even if they did blow out Troy once upon a time). But we're kidding ourselves if we expect to beat any of the big boys often enough to attract attention unless we get to the point where winning our conference--particularly this conference--is a given.

Our last basketball conference championship was 1970. Our last football conference championship was 1994 (shared) and last outright was 1957. Until that changes drastically, we are kidding ourselves if we expect any sort of offer. What really needs to change is butts in seats and eyes on TV sets. Winning is part of achieving those, but not enough without competent marketing and selling in addition.

Hambone and RU, agree totally that winning our conference is not enough. There are a whole bunch of things that need to happen. Winning our conference consistently does make almost all of them easier.