(04-03-2013 03:53 PM)CUSA_NEWS Wrote:  

(04-03-2013 03:37 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  You're getting warmer. But still taking these stats into account, tempo free, is dumb.

Again, you're off a tad. Look at the previous posts again.... clearly showed where Florida and Memphis avge roughly the same points per game therefore tempo was accounted for. Defense difference was accounted for as well as well as who you play (conference play).

What? You're way off. Average offensive and defensive points are tempo free statistics, and are largely useless when comparing two teams or two players.

I'm not sure what your overarching point isl if it's that Florida is a superior team to Memphis, then I agree. But you're trying to fit a round peg into a square hole with those stats.

First off, Memcane someone a few posts up introduced Patrick Young into the equation and compared him to Black hence how Florida (and Patrick's impact there) was brought up.

Secondly, you're way wrong yet again. Florida finishes games strong per the win margin therefore players like Young end the game with better +/- results.

Now then, let me make this dumby proof with an example from a Memphis game:
- Watch this video and pay attention to the play @1:15 and the play at 1:29 mark (also notice the alley oop play to Payne in between the plays I just mentioned)
- Imagine both those plays occured back-to-back
- Now lets say Geron @1:15 had a +/- of say +6
- Geron had the potential of having a +8 if Black had of successfully boxed out Payne and Memphis got the rebound and scored in fastbreak
- If @1:29 Memphis had successfully boxed out (Black had Nix on has back but let him go) and again got the ball and scored in transition, Geron would potentially have a +10 on back-to-back plays.... instead he now has a +2 with the 8pnt swing given his teammate didn't perform.


+/- is as simple as that. Young, although comparable to Black in stats, makes smarter and more impactful plays by not making such miscues as does Black hence Young's +/- being twice that of Black's.

You may continue to not comprehend but the facts are there.

(04-04-2013 08:52 AM)CUSA_NEWS Wrote:  First off, Memcane someone a few posts up introduced Patrick Young into the equation and compared him to Black hence how Florida (and Patrick's impact there) was brought up.

Secondly, you're way wrong yet again. Florida finishes games strong per the win margin therefore players like Young end the game with better +/- results.

Now then, let me make this dumby proof with an example from a Memphis game:
- Watch this video and pay attention to the play @1:15 and the play at 1:29 mark (also notice the alley oop play to Payne in between the plays I just mentioned)
- Imagine both those plays occured back-to-back
- Now lets say Geron @1:15 had a +/- of say +6
- Geron had the potential of having a +8 if Black had of successfully boxed out Payne and Memphis got the rebound and scored in fastbreak
- If @1:29 Memphis had successfully boxed out (Black had Nix on has back but let him go) and again got the ball and scored in transition, Geron would potentially have a +10 on back-to-back plays.... instead he now has a +2 with the 8pnt swing given his teammate didn't perform.


+/- is as simple as that. Young, although comparable to Black in stats, makes smarter and more impactful plays by not making such miscues as does Black hence Young's +/- being twice that of Black's.

You may continue to not comprehend but the facts are there.

...which basically shows that any player's +/- numbers are subject to the whims of 4 other players. For example, Tarik in the game, seals off his defender two feet from the basket and Crawford decides to jack up a 25 footer. Crawford gets blocked and the other team takes it in for the basket. TB has a -2 +/- at that point due to no fault of his. However, if Crawford drains the 25 footer, TB is at +3 (due to little from TB).

The reason I brought up Young was simply to illustrate that players considered to be "good" don't have to put up ridiculous numbers. His 10 pts and 6rebs per game was good enough for him to be 2nd team all SEC, while TB's 8 pts and 5 rebs is enough to be considered awful.

Amazing how one basket and one rebound a game difference separates all-conference from "get him outta here."

Wow, I don't even know where to begin with this post. Ok:

1. You seem to acknowledge that +/- is highly dependent on the 4 players on the floor. This is true, and this is why it's a crap statistic. Each other player's +/- is impacted by the good or bad plays of the other 4 players on the court.

2. Florida is a much better and more experienced team than Memphis. Patrick Young is surrounded by players who also have high +/-: Wilbekin, Murphy, Rosario, Yuegette and Boynton all have around +10 or better. Young is one the floor with 2 or more of these players at any given time. +/- is such a vague, general stat that all it tells us about these 6 players is that they play really well together.

3. Going through individual plays and attributing -2's to Tarik is a fool's game, unless you're going to do it throughout his entire career. Statistics are useful because of large sample size. Going over two plays doesn't tell us anything.

Simply reading that "Patric Young makes smarter and more impactful plays than Tarik Black" because his +/- is 14.8 and Tarik's is 7.8 is ridiculous. There's no way someone can draw that conclusion from this stat.

You're right, Salukiblue which is why I mentioned in an earlier post how DJ's +/- stat is impacted by the other four on the court w/him.

Yep, a player can be impactful w/o having enormous stats IF they play smart and make the plays for his team which often times don't show in the stat sheet (think players like Tony Allen, Dennis Rodman and Shane Battier)

Battier makes so many smart plays that every team he plays for he ends up playing SIGNIFICANT minutes... why, because he doesn't make many miscues. Simple as that. Black however will alow a player to drive, score and get an And-1 or allow a player to get a crucial rebound-put back or what have you. THIS hinders him and his ability to positively impact a game.

(04-04-2013 09:01 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  ...which basically shows that any player's +/- numbers are subject to the whims of 4 other players.
...
...
The reason I brought up Young was simply to illustrate that players considered to be "good" don't have to put up ridiculous numbers.
...
...
Amazing how one basket and one rebound a game difference separates all-conference from "get him outta here."

(04-04-2013 09:13 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Wow, I don't even know where to begin with this post. Ok:

1. You seem to acknowledge that +/- is highly dependent on the 4 players on the floor. This is true, and this is why it's a crap statistic. Each other player's +/- is impacted by the good or bad plays of the other 4 players on the court.

Which is why replacing if Florida were to replace Young with Black who "over thinks" and makes twice as many miscues, Florida player's will see a drop in their +/- stat as well. Any system is only as strong as its weakest link.
--------------------------------------------
2. Florida is a much better and more experienced team than Memphis. Patrick Young is surrounded by players who also have high +/-: Wilbekin, Murphy, Rosario, Yuegette and Boynton all have around +10 or better. Young is one the floor with 2 or more of these players at any given time. +/- is such a vague, general stat that all it tells us about these 6 players is that they play really well together.

Put Black on that squad who has terrible footwork and defensive manuevers and those players +/- would take a hit. #Fact.

----------------------------------------------

3. Going through individual plays and attributing -2's to Tarik is a fool's game, unless you're going to do it throughout his entire career. Statistics are useful because of large sample size. Going over two plays doesn't tell us anything.

This statement is so wrong I have no further comment for it... just Red highlight.

-------------------------------------------

Simply reading that "Patric Young makes smarter and more impactful plays than Tarik Black" because his +/- is 14.8 and Tarik's is 7.8 is ridiculous. There's no way someone can draw that conclusion from this stat.

RED

(04-04-2013 09:15 AM)CUSA_NEWS Wrote:  You're right, Salukiblue which is why I mentioned in an earlier post how DJ's +/- stat is impacted by the other four on the court w/him.

Yep, a player can be impactful w/o having enormous stats IF they play smart and make the plays for his team which often times don't show in the stat sheet (think players like Tony Allen, Dennis Rodman and Shane Battier)

Battier makes so many smart plays that every team he plays for he ends up playing SIGNIFICANT minutes... why, because he doesn't make many miscues. Simple as that. Black however will alow a player to drive, score and get an And-1 or allow a player to get a crucial rebound-put back or what have you. THIS hinders him and his ability to positively impact a game.

(04-04-2013 09:01 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  ...which basically shows that any player's +/- numbers are subject to the whims of 4 other players.
...
...
The reason I brought up Young was simply to illustrate that players considered to be "good" don't have to put up ridiculous numbers.
...
...
Amazing how one basket and one rebound a game difference separates all-conference from "get him outta here."

I think a lot of this, too, is paralysis by analysis.

I have held the same stance with Wesley and Joe as I do with Tarik. One prominent player a year seems to be the whipping boy de jure for the fanbase such that EVERY trip down the court is micro-analyzed.

Two years ago, Wes could play five possessions in a row just fine and on the fifth miss a wide open (in the flow of the game) play and people in my section would start calling him awful, and yell to get him out of the game. This was also reflected in message board chatter.

The same for Joe, even as recently as the bahamas. People calling for AB to take over and for JJ to go to the bench for good. Joe gets a turnover and the crownd moans and you hear rumblings, while Chris does a no look behind the back pass that goes in the third row and folks say "ooooh."

That was TB middle on of this year. Every time he didn't get a rebound or missed a shot, it became SO magnified. Meanwhile, he's rebounding better than Shaq or AT and no one is moaning during gameplay. AT goes 1-9 from the field with 0 rebs vs. UAB and not one person really calls him out.

That being said, I guarantee we could watch a UF game and strictly analyze Young's game from beginning to end and find him failing to box out, missing a bunny, letting a defender get by etc. And probably find a lot of those same issues EVERY game.

If you go into watching a game LOOKING for faults, you will never be disappointed.

Again, Wow.

It's hard to respond to this post because it doesn't seem like you're grasping the arguments being made, but....

You argue that putting Black on Florida's team would drop the 5 Florida player's +/-. In reality, this could be the case (again, it's just a guess by you, there's no way to know), but it may drop each player's +/- a bit. It would also probably shoot Tarik Black's +/- through the roof, as now hes getting the benefit of the play of the other Florida veterans.

Essentially the opposite thing would happen if Young were to take Tarik's place here in Memphis. Young's +/- would drop drastically.


But all that you really need to know is that +/- is a largely useless stat in college. It's so sweepingly general that it can't really tell us anything.

For instance, can you take a guess at who leads the nation in +/-???? Assuredly, with such a stat as this it's an All-American, or a future NBA draft pick, or a highly lauded player who won tons of awards in his conference.

Nope.

It's Farab Cobb, a 6'0" freshman for the Chattanooga Mocs who averaged 5.6 pts per game, shot 33% from the field, 25% from 3, and garnered 1.7 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game.

Yesterday I had a little time on my hands and put in a 2001-2002 game of the Tigers against TCU coached by Billy Tubbs. The lineup was Chris Massie, Earl Barron, Duane Erwin, (Kelly Wise) sat on the bench most of the game, in the front court, Dujuan Wagner, A. Burks and Scooter McFagdon the guards. Anthony Rice and Erwin came off the bench. Those guys REALLY crashed the boards. Where a lot of games this year saw the Tigers with one in and four out, there were at least 3 of our biggest guys banging inside. Massie finished the game with 22 points and 17 rebounds. Earl had 9 or 10. The main thing I noticed was how friggin' hard everyone on the team played the whole 40 minutes. It was like a final four game. The Tigers won by 26. True TCU was in the cellar of C-USA and had some good big front line players, but no guard play to speak of. I think we would have been better off in the Michigan St. game to have had Shaq and Tarik in at the same time and took our chances. It's not about the stats of how we ranked nationally but the timing of the no shows in rebounding. Some game you can get away with being out rebounded if you make enough shots.

Back then the players didnt have a sense of entitlement nor did they already think they were the big fish before even playing their first collegiate game.

Today, players hear all the accolade and recognition pre college and think they made it... dont have to work hard and can just get by with what they already know. If you just so happen to disrupt their bubble what some constructive criticism you'll damage their pysche as everyone before has told them how unstoppable they were. So, when the going gets tough they bolt. Screw working on your game and proving doubters wrong.