http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?D...EM_ID=4200

This is an amazing opinion piece. This man understands what is really going on and he does not wish to see Duke riding along. I could pull quote after quote from this piece but folks need to just read it from start to finish.

What I Will say is that HIS words about the ACC being solid means more to me than many of the empty open ended comments I have seen before. Count this one as a +1 in the ACC column.

(03-16-2013 10:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?D...EM_ID=4200

This is an amazing opinion piece. This man understands what is really going on and he does not wish to see Duke riding along. I could pull quote after quote from this piece but folks need to just read it from start to finish.

What I Will say is that HIS words about the ACC being solid means more to me than many of the empty open ended comments I have seen before. Count this one as a +1 in the ACC column.

How in bloody hell did you get the ACC is secure from reading that article? You might want to read this part again.


THE FUTURE FOR DUKE

As long as the ACC remains one of the major players in the college sports world, Duke’s position is likely to be secure.

But White is not to content to rely on the conference to protect Duke’s status as one of the nation’s elite athletic institutions.

And while the Blue Devils were once one of the nation’s elite football programs, that was long ago. When White arrived in Durham in 2008, he inherited a struggling football team with a poor record in recent years and a weak foundation.

Coach David Cutcliffe, his staff – along with White and the athletics administrative team – have worked diligently since then to revitalize Duke Football.

“Duke must continue to reinvest in football, we’ve got to get back to a place wherein we are very competitive,” he said. “That’s why we’re working like hell to resuscitate the Blue Devil football program. In addition, everything else needs to be highly competitive.”

There has been progress. The football team has steadily improved under Cutcliffe, qualifying for a bowl last season — Duke’s first bowl since 1994. Facilities have improved and will continue to improve. Duke announced a $250 million athletic fund-raising campaign last fall and a significant portion of that money will go towards rebuilding historic Wallace Wade Stadium.

The improvements included in the so-called Bostock plan will have other benefits.

“To create amenity laden facilities and provide hospitality in Cameron and Wallace Wade creates a residual effect for Olympic Sports, as well as the entire campus community, notwithstanding campus recreation,” White said.

“Once again, we need to invest. There are no free lunches. Our constituents need to understand that there are consequences. As of late, we’ve moved from absolutely off the radar – wherein Duke football was irrelevant – to now folks across the country are talking about Blue Devil football. We’re now relevant.”

He points to Duke's bowl appearance against Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl.

“We had 20,000 people in Charlotte,” White said. “Any Dukie I talked to when David and I got here said that one of the worst things [that we had] to face is that when we do qualify for a bowl, if that were to ever happen, we’ll have 2,500 fans and we’ll embarrass ourselves. Again, we had some 20,000 Duke fans at the Belk Bowl.

“Did you see the TV ratings? There were 35 bowls and we were 15th in bowl ratings. We played on a week night, a work night and we kicked off at 6:30, so we didn’t have the West Coast at 3:30 in the afternoon. And we still had the 15th best rating.

“So when Duke is relevant … we can be highly impactful.”

Of course, Duke is always impactful on the basketball court. The Blue Devils have one of the best – if not THE best – basketball programs in the country. Duke basketball is a nationally recognized brand name and is a fixture on TV sports. The Duke-UNC rivalry games are the most valuable regular season TV properties in college basketball.

But could basketball carry Duke if the school was somehow lost in the shuffle of realignment?

“To that end, I’ve long said we can’t allow that to become Duke’s scenario,” White responded.
But he concedes that the danger is there. Along with the rest of the country, he saw how close Kansas – another great basketball power – came to losing its BCS status in 2011, when the Big 12 almost collapsed. The big football schools looked like they were going to split for the Big Ten, Pac 12 and SEC, leaving Kansas to join perhaps Conference USA.

Even more frightening – if the top 60 or 70 football programs leave the NCAA to form their own parent organization, what happens to the schools that get left behind? There are some famous basketball programs at schools that don’t have big-time football – think Georgetown, Butler, Marquette, St. John’s, Villanova and Gonzaga.

Can those schools continue to compete at the highest levels in basketball when so many national powers have left them to compete in a football-driven organization? Could Duke be in that position?
“That scenario should get the full attention of the entire Duke family,” White said. “Part of me doesn’t know how that would eventually play out. However, you can look at this through many prisms. Do I lay in bed and say ‘Oh my goodness, are we going to eventually become a mid-major?’
“No, I don’t. Because I firmly think that our brand is way too strong. We have so many wonderful assets.”

Still, he points out that things do change. The University of Chicago was a charter member of the Big Ten, coached by Amos Alonzo Stagg. Santa Clara, Fordham, Marquette were all football powers before World War II. Then there are the great women’s basketball champions such as Immaculata and Old Dominion, programs that were eclipsed when the AIAW, which organized the first women’s national championships, were replaced by the NCAA.

“What happened? The world changed – at least for them,” White said.

The danger is that the schools getting flush on the massive football money would be able to outspend the schools that don’t share in that largess. So what if traditional powers and TV favorites such as Georgetown and Butler and Gonzaga and Villanova are left out? The football schools will have significant media, and other, advantages on the basketball side.

“Without question, I think that football television will rebrand those institutions,” White warned. “They are going to be so dramatically rebranded, and that will carry the day. You are not only competing for resources, you are competing for media platforms as well as financial resources, if not for marketing/advertising impressions. It’s simple marketing theory! That’s what this game is – this is branding, and/or re-branding at its basic level. We will rebrand the properties that define tomorrow’s universe within elite college athletics.”

I said +1. Perhaps you think that means I am saying it is secure but all I said is +1.

As far as my personal opinion goes, after seeing his perspective and Duke's mentality going forward, I am 100% in favor of seeing the Big Ten trying to pull Duke with Virginia if it is at all possible.

(03-16-2013 10:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?D...EM_ID=4200

This is an amazing opinion piece. This man understands what is really going on and he does not wish to see Duke riding along. I could pull quote after quote from this piece but folks need to just read it from start to finish.

What I Will say is that HIS words about the ACC being solid means more to me than many of the empty open ended comments I have seen before. Count this one as a +1 in the ACC column.

I like the way he references the State consolidation of resources so gently and obliquely. It is the reduction in those resources that is the motivation behind realignment. He pointed out that greater resources would be spread among fewer institutions and that the same model was being used to consolidate the conferences. That is a mouthful of truth. Realignment has not from its inception been about football as much as new revenue. His explanation is also why the Big 10 and SEC have been seeking large state flagship schools, and in very large states at least one of the top two large state schools. Duke may be one of the few exceptions left that could make the cut due to their name recognition in basketball and their outstanding academics.

He1nous, his other point that is one of the reasons I favor the ACC over the Big 12 is the one about the ACC having the largest market. The Big 12 has the smallest. And it has no network to generate the additional revenue they are going to need to keep pace with the PAC, Big 10, and SEC. That may not be a killer now, but it will at some point become a terminal illness.

(03-16-2013 10:32 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  I said +1. Perhaps you think that means I am saying it is secure but all I said is +1.

As far as my personal opinion goes, after seeing his perspective and Duke's mentality going forward, I am 100% in favor of seeing the Big Ten trying to pull Duke with Virginia if it is at all possible.

Based on White's own words this is a -10 for the ACC staying together.

Thanks for posting the article though.

He is the guy that gave Bob Davie a contract extension, then fired him.

He hired George O'Leary, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis at ND.

He flew his university president from South Bend to Utah to be personally rejected by Urban Meyer.

He gave Charlie Weis a zillion dollar, ten year contract extension after seven games into his first year on the job.

He was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I read his comments to mean that he really does not think that the ACC is in that much trouble, for what it is worth.

(03-16-2013 10:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  He is the guy that gave Bob Davie a contract extension, then fired him.

He hired George O'Leary, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis at ND.

He flew his university president from South Bend to Utah to be personally rejected by Urban Meyer.

He gave Charlie Weis a zillion dollar, ten year contract extension after seven games into his first year on the job.

He was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I read his comments to mean that he really does not think that the ACC is in that much trouble, for what it is worth.

I did not realize he was that guy. That is not good news for Duke.

I know its late on a Saturday night, but you really took from this article that White thought the ACC and Duke were safe? You might want to look again at the parts I bolded.

You completely missed the context of those bolded statements and ignored the 6 paragraphs of "I think it's solid" before that entire section you quoted.

(03-16-2013 11:11 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 10:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  He is the guy that gave Bob Davie a contract extension, then fired him.

He hired George O'Leary, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis at ND.

He flew his university president from South Bend to Utah to be personally rejected by Urban Meyer.

He gave Charlie Weis a zillion dollar, ten year contract extension after seven games into his first year on the job.

He was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I read his comments to mean that he really does not think that the ACC is in that much trouble, for what it is worth.

I did not realize he was that guy. That is not good news for Duke.

I know its late on a Saturday night, but you really took from this article that White thought the ACC and Duke were safe? You might want to look again at the parts I bolded.

This part???


"The ACC has survived the transition from 31 to six to five relevant (and profitable) conferences.

But how strong are the league’s prospects? According to news on the internet, half the schools in the league are looking to jump somewhere else.

White doesn’t buy that.

“You can never be 100% certain, but having returned recently from an ACC meeting, my opinion and professional instinct is that we’ve never had more solidarity within the ACC,” he said. “There is a much clearer sense that we are in a stronger position relative to both TV revenue and appearance platforms – both network and cable – that are being aggressively marketed through a variety of vehicles.”

It’s been reported that the ACC ranks fifth among the five remaining power conferences in terms of annual television revenue. But White said that those reported numbers are inaccurate.

“Our network and cable television revenue is very similar in scope to the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 12 at the moment … and that doesn’t account for prospective channel resources that have yet to be developed,” he said. “In some media outlets, there has been a suggestion that all conferences are making an inordinate amount of resource via their conference channels. That is simply not the case. The only channel that is generating a sizeable piece of revenue is the Big Ten Network. Once again, at this point, the others are not.”

Because of the successful Big Ten Network, that league is significantly more profitable than the ACC. But that’s the only league with a distinct advantage.

And White said the ACC is exploring ways to increase its revenues.

“We’re looking at every possible revenue opportunity. At this point in time, although it has been suggested that the ACC is behind in revenue generation, we’re actually in a much stronger position than most everybody realizes. To be sure, that certainly strengthens the ACC’s sense of solidarity – once you have the real numbers and not the publically articulated numbers based on speculation that has largely been manufactured.”

The misreported financial figures for various conferences led to an amusing – but revealing – incident last spring. A Florida State trustee, reading about the difference in television revenue between the Big 12 and the ACC, publically urged FSU to explore a move to the Midwestern-based conference. When the school’s administrators showed him the real figures, he quickly backtracked.

“The skinny is, we’re in a much stronger position than the fan on the internet, or anyone else, can appreciate from a financial standpoint,” White said.

That doesn’t mean the ACC can sit back and ignore the changes going on in the sports world. The coming additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the replacement of Maryland with Louisville and the addition of Notre Dame as a partial member – something the ACC refused to consider as recently as 2005 – all reflect the league’s proactive approach to the new sports world.

“As the ACC, which has been a really traditional conference, navigates itself through this new world, it is having to kind of reshape, and to some degree, rework its culture,” he said. “If you are Duke, I think you are much more attracted to a traditional, yesteryear model. You’re heavily influenced by our unwavering commitment to education, but you do realize that you have some significant opportunities on the entertainment side.

“We’re also looking at a number of creative things, as we look to the future, to even further enhance our position. Hopefully this will ensure a bigger, stronger, faster ACC.”

White said that the ACC is in a great position as it looks to the future.

“Our footprint now – in terms of households – which is what we’re dealing with presently … in the next iteration, we’re probably going to be talking eyeballs – is larger and greater than any other conference,” White said. “That’s something that most everybody would be surprised to learn – larger than the Big Ten, larger than the SEC, larger than the Pac 12 and certainly larger than the Big 12. THE largest."

That doesn't fit the agenda here, Terry

(03-16-2013 11:21 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 11:11 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 10:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  He is the guy that gave Bob Davie a contract extension, then fired him.

He hired George O'Leary, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis at ND.

He flew his university president from South Bend to Utah to be personally rejected by Urban Meyer.

He gave Charlie Weis a zillion dollar, ten year contract extension after seven games into his first year on the job.

He was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I read his comments to mean that he really does not think that the ACC is in that much trouble, for what it is worth.

I did not realize he was that guy. That is not good news for Duke.

I know its late on a Saturday night, but you really took from this article that White thought the ACC and Duke were safe? You might want to look again at the parts I bolded.

This part???


"The ACC has survived the transition from 31 to six to five relevant (and profitable) conferences.

But how strong are the league’s prospects? According to news on the internet, half the schools in the league are looking to jump somewhere else.

White doesn’t buy that.

“You can never be 100% certain, but having returned recently from an ACC meeting, my opinion and professional instinct is that we’ve never had more solidarity within the ACC,” he said. “There is a much clearer sense that we are in a stronger position relative to both TV revenue and appearance platforms – both network and cable – that are being aggressively marketed through a variety of vehicles.”

It’s been reported that the ACC ranks fifth among the five remaining power conferences in terms of annual television revenue. But White said that those reported numbers are inaccurate.

“Our network and cable television revenue is very similar in scope to the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 12 at the moment … and that doesn’t account for prospective channel resources that have yet to be developed,” he said. “In some media outlets, there has been a suggestion that all conferences are making an inordinate amount of resource via their conference channels. That is simply not the case. The only channel that is generating a sizeable piece of revenue is the Big Ten Network. Once again, at this point, the others are not.”

Because of the successful Big Ten Network, that league is significantly more profitable than the ACC. But that’s the only league with a distinct advantage.

And White said the ACC is exploring ways to increase its revenues.

“We’re looking at every possible revenue opportunity. At this point in time, although it has been suggested that the ACC is behind in revenue generation, we’re actually in a much stronger position than most everybody realizes. To be sure, that certainly strengthens the ACC’s sense of solidarity – once you have the real numbers and not the publically articulated numbers based on speculation that has largely been manufactured.”

The misreported financial figures for various conferences led to an amusing – but revealing – incident last spring. A Florida State trustee, reading about the difference in television revenue between the Big 12 and the ACC, publically urged FSU to explore a move to the Midwestern-based conference. When the school’s administrators showed him the real figures, he quickly backtracked.

“The skinny is, we’re in a much stronger position than the fan on the internet, or anyone else, can appreciate from a financial standpoint,” White said.

That doesn’t mean the ACC can sit back and ignore the changes going on in the sports world. The coming additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the replacement of Maryland with Louisville and the addition of Notre Dame as a partial member – something the ACC refused to consider as recently as 2005 – all reflect the league’s proactive approach to the new sports world.

“As the ACC, which has been a really traditional conference, navigates itself through this new world, it is having to kind of reshape, and to some degree, rework its culture,” he said. “If you are Duke, I think you are much more attracted to a traditional, yesteryear model. You’re heavily influenced by our unwavering commitment to education, but you do realize that you have some significant opportunities on the entertainment side.

“We’re also looking at a number of creative things, as we look to the future, to even further enhance our position. Hopefully this will ensure a bigger, stronger, faster ACC.”

White said that the ACC is in a great position as it looks to the future.

“Our footprint now – in terms of households – which is what we’re dealing with presently … in the next iteration, we’re probably going to be talking eyeballs – is larger and greater than any other conference,” White said. “That’s something that most everybody would be surprised to learn – larger than the Big Ten, larger than the SEC, larger than the Pac 12 and certainly larger than the Big 12. THE largest."

Nothing more than lip service. An AD in a conference will always say the conference is strong and stable, even if that particular school is leaving the next day. The real meat on the bone in this article, and every other article when a conference member speaks, is when he says something contrary to the company line or otherwise makes the conference look weak.

You know this.

(03-16-2013 11:11 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 10:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  [Kevin White] was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I did not realize he was that guy. That is not good news for Duke.

He was definitely bad news for Tulane and Notre Dame.

(03-16-2013 11:33 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 11:21 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 11:11 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 10:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  He is the guy that gave Bob Davie a contract extension, then fired him.

He hired George O'Leary, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis at ND.

He flew his university president from South Bend to Utah to be personally rejected by Urban Meyer.

He gave Charlie Weis a zillion dollar, ten year contract extension after seven games into his first year on the job.

He was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I read his comments to mean that he really does not think that the ACC is in that much trouble, for what it is worth.

I did not realize he was that guy. That is not good news for Duke.

I know its late on a Saturday night, but you really took from this article that White thought the ACC and Duke were safe? You might want to look again at the parts I bolded.

This part???


"The ACC has survived the transition from 31 to six to five relevant (and profitable) conferences.

But how strong are the league’s prospects? According to news on the internet, half the schools in the league are looking to jump somewhere else.

White doesn’t buy that.

“You can never be 100% certain, but having returned recently from an ACC meeting, my opinion and professional instinct is that we’ve never had more solidarity within the ACC,” he said. “There is a much clearer sense that we are in a stronger position relative to both TV revenue and appearance platforms – both network and cable – that are being aggressively marketed through a variety of vehicles.”

It’s been reported that the ACC ranks fifth among the five remaining power conferences in terms of annual television revenue. But White said that those reported numbers are inaccurate.

“Our network and cable television revenue is very similar in scope to the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 12 at the moment … and that doesn’t account for prospective channel resources that have yet to be developed,” he said. “In some media outlets, there has been a suggestion that all conferences are making an inordinate amount of resource via their conference channels. That is simply not the case. The only channel that is generating a sizeable piece of revenue is the Big Ten Network. Once again, at this point, the others are not.”

Because of the successful Big Ten Network, that league is significantly more profitable than the ACC. But that’s the only league with a distinct advantage.

And White said the ACC is exploring ways to increase its revenues.

“We’re looking at every possible revenue opportunity. At this point in time, although it has been suggested that the ACC is behind in revenue generation, we’re actually in a much stronger position than most everybody realizes. To be sure, that certainly strengthens the ACC’s sense of solidarity – once you have the real numbers and not the publically articulated numbers based on speculation that has largely been manufactured.”

The misreported financial figures for various conferences led to an amusing – but revealing – incident last spring. A Florida State trustee, reading about the difference in television revenue between the Big 12 and the ACC, publically urged FSU to explore a move to the Midwestern-based conference. When the school’s administrators showed him the real figures, he quickly backtracked.

“The skinny is, we’re in a much stronger position than the fan on the internet, or anyone else, can appreciate from a financial standpoint,” White said.

That doesn’t mean the ACC can sit back and ignore the changes going on in the sports world. The coming additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the replacement of Maryland with Louisville and the addition of Notre Dame as a partial member – something the ACC refused to consider as recently as 2005 – all reflect the league’s proactive approach to the new sports world.

“As the ACC, which has been a really traditional conference, navigates itself through this new world, it is having to kind of reshape, and to some degree, rework its culture,” he said. “If you are Duke, I think you are much more attracted to a traditional, yesteryear model. You’re heavily influenced by our unwavering commitment to education, but you do realize that you have some significant opportunities on the entertainment side.

“We’re also looking at a number of creative things, as we look to the future, to even further enhance our position. Hopefully this will ensure a bigger, stronger, faster ACC.”

White said that the ACC is in a great position as it looks to the future.

“Our footprint now – in terms of households – which is what we’re dealing with presently … in the next iteration, we’re probably going to be talking eyeballs – is larger and greater than any other conference,” White said. “That’s something that most everybody would be surprised to learn – larger than the Big Ten, larger than the SEC, larger than the Pac 12 and certainly larger than the Big 12. THE largest."

Nothing more than lip service. An AD in a conference will always say the conference is strong and stable, even if that particular school is leaving the next day. The real meat on the bone in this article, and every other article when a conference member speaks, is when he says something contrary to the company line or otherwise makes the conference look weak.

You know this.

Yup, only the bad stuff is true. Always.

[quote=

You know this.


Yup, only the bad stuff is true. Always.
[/quote]


Even Terry will tell you statements against interest have more weight than statements in conformity with a natural bias.

(03-16-2013 10:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  He is the guy that gave Bob Davie a contract extension, then fired him.

He hired George O'Leary, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis at ND.

He flew his university president from South Bend to Utah to be personally rejected by Urban Meyer.

He gave Charlie Weis a zillion dollar, ten year contract extension after seven games into his first year on the job.

He was run out of South Bend. I really don't think that he is some type of a genius visionary, sorry.

I read his comments to mean that he really does not think that the ACC is in that much trouble, for what it is worth.

+1

Duke will continue to pay lip service to their football program and use ACC tv money to improve basketball. Nothing to see here.

The way I am reading his statements is that he is saying that on the one hand the ACC is strong and there is every reason to believe the conference can remain so, especially given the numbers of eyeballs in the conference footprint. On the other hand, I think he is suggesting that if the ACC starts to lose additional members then Duke will do whatever is necessary to preserve its position as one of the haves, including joining the exodus. If it becomes apparent to him that North Carolina and Virginia plan to join another conference, he will hitch his wagon to UNC and go along for the ride.

(03-17-2013 01:12 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  The way I am reading his statements is that he is saying that on the one hand the ACC is strong and there is every reason to believe the conference can remain so, especially given the numbers of eyeballs in the conference footprint. On the other hand, I think he is suggesting that if the ACC starts to lose additional members then Duke will do whatever is necessary to preserve its position as one of the haves, including joining the exodus. If it becomes apparent to him that North Carolina and Virginia plan to join another conference, he will hitch his wagon to UNC and go along for the ride.

I think Gamecock pegged it about right. Lip service to football and cash to basketball. If the ACC is raided then U.N.C. will be protecting N.C. State at the behest of the State's insistence. They have to support both public universities. Maybe Duke is sending signals to other conferences that they will be willing to step up football spending and will not totally be pigskin dead weight.

I think the more enlightening news of the Day was the financial aid package for Maryland. It seems to indicate that the Big 10 expects the 52 million dollar exit fee will hold. If so more defections from the ACC will be unlikely. N.D.'s joining early seems to indicate the same. We'll see.

One thing for sure is it was a sweet heart deal for the ACC to swap Maryland for Louisville.

I think most of you missed the entire point:

It could be summed up with the statement that the ACC rejected partial membership to Notre Dame as recently as 2005 and Louisville replaced Maryland.

What that is, is a MAJOR attitude shift within the ACC.

Is it too late for the ACC to survive? Not on your life! All the ACC needed was to drop some stodgy attitudes and make a commitment. The ACC already had the markets, the brains and the resources, all the needed was an attitude shift.

(03-17-2013 01:12 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  The way I am reading his statements is that he is saying that on the one hand the ACC is strong and there is every reason to believe the conference can remain so, especially given the numbers of eyeballs in the conference footprint. On the other hand, I think he is suggesting that if the ACC starts to lose additional members then Duke will do whatever is necessary to preserve its position as one of the haves, including joining the exodus. If it becomes apparent to him that North Carolina and Virginia plan to join another conference, he will hitch his wagon to UNC and go along for the ride.

I was with you right up until you went to that mentality that Duke would have to hitch it's wagon to UNC and go for the ride.

The big deal in this to me is that he is presenting Duke's situation in it's own light and right at the beginning of the piece he states how they cant just sit back and let it happen to them but instead they may have to very well make it happen.

To me that does not represent a stance that they are going to sit back and wait for UNC to save them if they start getting a strong sniff of something big happening.