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http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/...e_usa_log5

Conference USA log5
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 12, 2013


March 13-16. All games at Tulsa, Okla.

All-kenpom: Joe Jackson, Memphis (kPOY); Dwayne Davis, Southern Miss; Josh Davis, Tulane; Isaiah Sykes, UCF; Maurice Kemp, East Carolina.

Memphis rolled to a 16-0 record in C-USA play and Rice struggled to a 1-15 mark, validating the preseason poll. What happened in between didn’t go accoring to plan, however. Southern Miss surprised some people by going 12-4 and is the most likely team to win the C-USA auto bid should Memphis not. And that is what folks across the college hoops world will be monitoring as results from the BOK Center appear on their virtual scoreboard of choice. With Memphis projected safely in the field of 68 and yet having a slightly worse than 50/50 of winning the C-USA tournament, there’s a high possibility that someone from the conference becomes a bid thief.

Tulsa gets half of a home-court share in this analysis.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Memphis 100 85.5 71.2 48.1
2 Southern Miss 100 80.4 58.1 30.0
3 UTEP 100 69.2 26.4 9.3
5 Tulsa 100 50.1 11.0 3.5
4 East Carolina 100 49.9 10.9 3.4
8 Tulane 68.5 11.8 6.0 1.9
6 Houston 86.6 29.7 7.5 1.8
7 UAB 55.6 11.8 5.0 1.3
10 SMU 44.4 7.8 2.9 0.6
9 Marshall 31.5 2.7 0.9 0.2
11 Rice 13.4 1.0 0.05 0.003

I think Memphis has a better than 48% chance considering they were undefeated in conference play.

It's a cumulative risk thing. For each game there's about an 80% chance they win-- pretty decent. Multiply it by the 3 games they have to play though, and you get around 50%. Let's not forget 2010.

(03-12-2013 02:58 PM)sadolakced Wrote:  It's a cumulative risk thing. For each game there's about an 80% chance they win-- pretty decent. Multiply it by the 3 games they have to play though, and you get around 50%. Let's not forget 2010.

Houston had the 7 seed then too... maybe this is a good thing

(03-12-2013 02:51 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/...e_usa_log5

Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Memphis 100 85.5 71.2 48.1
2 So Miss 100 80.4 58.1 30.0
3 UTEP 100 69.2 26.4 9.3
4 ECU 100 49.9 10.9 3.4
5 Tulsa 100 50.1 11.0 3.5
6 Houston 86.6 29.7 7.5 1.8
7 UAB 55.6 11.8 5.0 1.3
8 Tulane 68.5 11.8 6.0 1.9
9 Marshall 31.5 2.7 0.9 0.2
10 SMU 44.4 7.8 2.9 0.6
11 Rice 13.4 1.0 0.05 0.003

I know you just copied and pasted but why was it out of order?

It looks to me like it is in the order of probability of winning the thing, which put some of the seeds out of order.

(03-12-2013 03:36 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  It looks to me like it is in the order of probability of winning the thing, which put some of the seeds out of order.

+1

  Dumb&Dumber.jpg (Size: 9.44 KB / Downloads: 7)

So your saying i got a chance!!

just keep winning