RE: State of affairs at WVU
It's a bit over simplistic to assume that because the SEC does not have an exit fee, or a grant of rights, that schools will encounter no entanglements upon leaving. Loans to help schools make moves, contracts that have been signed, and various other legal documents that have been signed all provide entanglements for any school in any conference.
Could Missouri make a move? Sure. Would it be an easy thing to do? Absolutely not.
I don't mind reading other folks' speculations and ideas about what is going to happen, because just about anything could happen, ...just about. But don't assume that any school is free for a jail break. They are not. There are always entanglements and difficulties to be encountered.
I think sometimes the two biggest misconceptions about the SEC are (1.) that no exit fees means that anybody is free to leave. That simply isn't so.
The second is that the gentlemen's agreement actually exists and is in force. It doesn't and is not. Slive merely requested that additions #13 & #14 come from two new markets to activate the renegotiation clause of the last contract. He stated they could discuss schools from within the footprint after those two additions were made.
In 1992 Florida sponsored F.S.U. for membership. Last fall South Carolina stated no opposition to Clemson. Would Florida's and South Carolina's feelings be taken into consideration before their rivals were issued invitations? Sure they would. But South Carolina and Florida are state schools that receive revenue from their legislatures who have an absolute interest in doing what is best for all state schools. For Florida or South Carolina to oppose another state schools entrance into a better financial deal that would put less stress on the state appropriations would be politically stupid and they would dare not cast such a vote against their rival.
The question is really whether the SEC wants new markets for each addition. The answer to that is that it would be in their best interest to do so. That places Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville further down the priority scale. In the studies that have been done to determine whether a school would add profit to the bottom line of the SEC both Florida State and Clemson proved that they could. The issue is that they wouldn't add as much as a new market in most cases. Florida State was the exception in that if a state added fewer than 2 million cable households the content value of Florida State would be roughly equal to, or exceed, those markets with less than 2 million people.
So, I say these things just to remind, or inform, posters that as far as the SEC is concerned the first two priorities are apparent. The conference very much desires to add Virginia and North Carolina to their markets.
There are only three schools that could be added from existing markets that would either pay their way or add profit and those are Texas who is likely never to choose the SEC and Florida State. Clemson would be close to a wash.
If the SEC goes to 16 they will wait on a North Carolina or Virginia school. If the SEC goes to 18 Florida State could well be in the mix. The question then will be where to get #18? Pittsburgh, West Virginia (only if they are still on an Island might the Big 12 consider releasing them), or the only other team that while it doesn't add also doesn't subtract from the SEC's bottom line, Clemson. But, in all likelihood should U.N.C. ever join the SEC the University System of North Carolina may well insist on N.C. State going with them if they do not have a suitable or profitable home, or U.N.C. may insist upon their rival Duke to be a traveling partner. In that case I wouldn't rule Florida State out as a #18.
If the SEC can acquire one school from each of those states they likely stop at 16. If they have to take two from North Carolina to get into that state they will not abandon their desires for a Virginia school and I believe they will go to 18 to achieve that market. Whether they go to 20 will depend on a number of other considerations including but not limited to what the Big 10 does, and where they choose to expand and with whom. It will also depend upon whether the Big 10 has breached the Big 12.
If the Big 10 raids the Big 12 and the SEC is at 18 they may save those final two spots for an Oklahoma team, a Kansas team, or a Dallas/Ft. Worth area school, or they will decide not to go that far west and will offer two more schools within their Southeastern footprint to consolidate and balance alignments. I tend to believe it will be the latter. Then you may see a Clemson, or a Miami, or a Louisville, or even Georgia Tech as an AAU school enter into the discussion. Of course the latter will depend on if any of those schools are still available.
If the ACC withstands and strengthens itself, and it well could, and the Big 12 gets breached maybe the SEC goes to 16 with West Virginia and another. We'll see, but I don't think it will be anytime soon.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2013 01:48 PM by JRsec.)
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State of affairs at WVU
