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USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
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Funslinger Offline
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Post: #41
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 01:56 PM)wh49er Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 01:07 PM)eaglenjxn Wrote:  It is funny to me how RPI is one of those things that people consider valid/invalid based on whether or not it is helping their team.

Personally, I think it has some major flaws. Seriously, half the criteria is your opponents' record? Your opponents' opponents' record counts just as much as your record? There are so many ways to manipulate this. Here's the thing that people forget: It is not the only criteria the committee uses!!!! People recognize the flaws, so they use other criteria like W-L vs. Top 50/Top 100, Last 10 Games, etc.

Is our RPI inflated? Yes. Was it inflated last year? Hell yes. Are we the first team to do this? Uh...no. The MVC has become the best mid-major over the last several years because they found a way to manipulate the RPI. The SEC and SoCon are the masters of this in baseball.


I agree that it has some flaws but your opponents record does not count as much as what your record. La Tech wouldn't be in the 50s if that were the case.

Actually, it does. RPI consists of your record (25%) + your opponents' records (50%) + your opponents' opponents' records (25%). The reason for this is to prevent a team from getting a high win total against inferior competition and to prevent your opponents records from being inflated by playing inferior competition.
(This post was last modified: 02-22-2013 09:33 PM by Funslinger.)
02-22-2013 09:16 PM
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Funslinger Offline
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Post: #42
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 02:41 PM)wh49er Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 02:22 PM)Luckyshot Wrote:  The problem with that logic is that you seem to think we had to play those two games. We didn't. We could've scheduled ourselves extra off days, which would also be "faking" our RPI apparently. We just aren't the lazy type that wants extra off days.

Or you could of [have] found D1 opponents, that's the point.

If we could've, we would've. We don't have the money to pay for many D1 opponents to visit. And there aren't many D1 teams that would offer enough for us to visit them.

The situation is improving. We had four non-D1 games last year. The tourney appearance has given us more flexibility with scheduling. Many forget that we are one of about seven D1 basketball schools in the poorest state in the country.
(This post was last modified: 02-22-2013 09:26 PM by Funslinger.)
02-22-2013 09:25 PM
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Funslinger Offline
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Post: #43
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 08:26 PM)nastybunch Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 01:33 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 12:32 PM)JDTulane Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 11:49 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 11:33 AM)nastybunch Wrote:  Another negative, of course they look at what you do at the end if the season, no matter what they advertise. Just like they will take Cincinnati over us with all things the same. The human factor.

They will take Cincy over you this year because all things aren't the same. And no, they do not take the last ten games into account any more than any other ten games throughout the season. I don't have the time or energy to go look this stuff up, but it is not a part of the selection process.

Not sure if serious.

Very serious. I don't know why people have such an issue with the Selection Committee. In recent years, I believe they have been very fair in their choices of teams and in disclosing what they were and weren't looking for. Alabama was left out a couple of years ago for playing a **** OOC schedule, just like Va Tech was for about 15 years in a row. Southern Miss got in with a decent seed last year because they had some good wins, along with a large number of wins. The last 10 games has been taken out of the criteria, and I have seen nothing that indicates it is still a part of it. Those games may help with seeding, but as far as getting in or out, I haven't seen it at all.
We will just have to agree to disagree. I know I am right but that's ok....

Last ten games are only going to be used to break a tie between equally rated teams. It won't keep a slightly higher rated team from getting in.
02-22-2013 09:30 PM
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stinkfist Offline
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Post: #44
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 02:41 PM)wh49er Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 02:22 PM)Luckyshot Wrote:  The problem with that logic is that you seem to think we had to play those two games. We didn't. We could've scheduled ourselves extra off days, which would also be "faking" our RPI apparently. We just aren't the lazy type that wants extra off days.

Or you could of found D1 opponents, that's the point.

...which most likely would've been on the road...to play at home, they would most likely be +150 RPI teams so it screws us...if they are top 50, we most likely lose since we would almost certainly be on the road...help me understand the benefit of that type of scheduling. Either way our RPI suffers or our loss column grows...I take the better RPI route every time.

The difference between this year and last is our lack of home OOC games. I am willing to bet without doing the due diligence that teams like Kentucky, Louisville, Memphis, Cincy, Georgetown, etc...are all front-loaded with home OOC games EVERY YEAR. This is an advantage we don't have.

Hell, I think Tulane only had 3 or 4 OOC road games and their 'record' was good because of that...now, look at their conference record vs. ours....not so sporty is it?

We have not in the past, nor are we today in a position to make this work for us since it is difficult to schedule home/home series with quality opponents. We got lucky last year to play those home games. This year is more of the norm for us. Until we can make that happen, I don't see the benefit, nor do I see it changing.

2011 home OOC - 5 games with RPIs of 164, 278, 337, 249, and 258 and two non D1 teams...yeah, that's solid. (sarcasm)

I don't see how we can play it any other way. If I got pocket Aces all the time, I would most likely win most of the hands. We have to play J-7 and hope for the best.

I can say with confidence if we play this year's OOC games at home we end up with a split at worst.

This is what makes this season unique. Will the selection committee place value in this (road victories with no bad losses)? I know it is an option. Whether they do or not remains to be seen. Of course, we have to pretty much win out for any of this to matter.
(This post was last modified: 02-22-2013 10:00 PM by stinkfist.)
02-22-2013 09:41 PM
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Funslinger Offline
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Post: #45
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 09:51 AM)wh49er Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:33 AM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  USM would beat 6BC 05-stirthepot


Yea they would beat Wake Forest.



How does 12-14 feel? Even better, how does it feel to be swept by ECU? 03-lmfao



Can't wait to see you guys again next year 04-cheers

Speaking of Wake Forest, they just took down #2 Miami by 15.

Will Gonzaga be #2?
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2013 04:15 PM by Funslinger.)
02-23-2013 03:55 PM
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blazers9911 Online
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Post: #46
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 09:08 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 10:29 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:31 AM)gdunn Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:28 AM)Big Dub Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:21 AM)gdunn Wrote:  What does it matter? If it came down to us or Cincy, they'd put Cincy in.

All that matters folks.


USM needs sustained success to build a reputation going forward.

I agree, but I mean it's the same argument with us over Ole Miss..

Cincy and Ole Miss are not even comparable this year.
Cincy has 9 top 100 wins, including 4 in the top 50, and 1 in the top 20.
Ole Miss has 5 top 100 wins, 1 in the top 50, and a bad loss.

If you are looking at Southern Miss vs. Cincy, Southern Miss is going to lose every time, based purely on the resume.

If you look at Southern Miss vs. Ole Miss, there is a valid argument to be made for both sides.

Most of this stuff tends to sort itself out as the season goes on. If Southern Miss suffers a few more hiccups, they did it to themselves. Same with Ole Miss. Southern Miss can also look back at losses to Wichita State, Arizona, New Mexico State, and La Tech as missed opportunities to help the resume. There isn't a lot wrong with the resume of Southern Miss right now, but there isn't a lot that is going to help either.(2nd place in a 2nd tier conference, 0-3 vs top 50, 2-2 vs 51-100, 1 loss outside the top 100, etc.) That's why I think Southern Miss is going to have to find a way to beat Memphis at least once to get in this season. Will going 3-1 the rest of the way and reaching the conference finals be enough if they suffer 2 more losses to Memphis? That is the question that will have to be answered if it happens. I don't believe it will be enough, especially because the first tournament game will likely be against Marshall, UAB, Tulane, Houston, or maybe ECU or Tulsa; in other words not a win to hang your hat on.

Top xxx wins are already computed in the RPI. The RPI is all that should matter. If two teams have an identical RPI and team A has 7 top 100 wins and team B has zero, it just means that team A had some bad losses as well. Without those losses, their RPI would be higher.

Really? The RPI is all that should matter? You should join the selection committee and let them know that! Seriously, you can't make this out to be as simple as you want it to be. Top 25, 50, and 100 wins are used in the process. Sub 100 losses are also used in the process. Memphis has a resume littered with top 100 wins.(this is why they are in a different boat than Southern Miss) Cincy has a resume with 7. Southern Miss has 3. They are 77, 95, and 98. I cannot believe you would even try to argue that the RPI should be a factor over these wins.(and for what it's worth, your bad losses theory is incorrect. Cincy has 0, Southern Miss has 1) I want Southern Miss to get in as much as anybody, but there are better bubble teams to attack than Cincy.
02-25-2013 10:35 AM
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StillJonesing Offline
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Post: #47
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-22-2013 09:06 AM)TribeNiner Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 08:59 AM)wh49er Wrote:  You played 2 non-DI games so your RPI is somewhat inflated as the other wins count for more. We already have a whole 9 page thread on it.

Yeah, exactly. Basically, if you play 2 teams in the 200-range rather than non-D-I teams, your RPI would be a good bit lower. Don't worry about it, though. Just enjoy the season you're having, win a game or two in the tournament and point and laugh because they've lost 4 of 5.

That's horse $hit. Winning percentage is 25% of the equation you sacrifice by not playing cupcake D1's right off the top. We used to be a 300+ team and fans would post nightly RPI's. 99% of the teams that beat us never dropped. Most would get a bump of a few spots up in the rankings. In the two years I only saw one team drop after beating us and that was Memphis when they were in the top 5 at the time where the margin of error was high, and even after they beat us they only dropped 1 spot.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2013 12:58 PM by StillJonesing.)
02-25-2013 12:03 PM
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StillJonesing Offline
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Post: #48
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
Here is an example from last weekend. Rice is about as bad as you can get. Tulane beat them and moved up a spot. As long as you don't lose you don't drop unless multiple teams on your OOC schedule also lost.

**Tip-Off at 7:05pm CT**
in Houston,
Rice #311 (SOS: #142)
Tulane #152 (SOS: #220)

After the win Tulane was #151. Win and no harm more times than not.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2013 01:20 PM by StillJonesing.)
02-25-2013 12:50 PM
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Funslinger Offline
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Post: #49
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-25-2013 10:35 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:08 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 10:29 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:31 AM)gdunn Wrote:  
(02-22-2013 09:28 AM)Big Dub Wrote:  All that matters folks.


USM needs sustained success to build a reputation going forward.

I agree, but I mean it's the same argument with us over Ole Miss..

Cincy and Ole Miss are not even comparable this year.
Cincy has 9 top 100 wins, including 4 in the top 50, and 1 in the top 20.
Ole Miss has 5 top 100 wins, 1 in the top 50, and a bad loss.

If you are looking at Southern Miss vs. Cincy, Southern Miss is going to lose every time, based purely on the resume.

If you look at Southern Miss vs. Ole Miss, there is a valid argument to be made for both sides.

Most of this stuff tends to sort itself out as the season goes on. If Southern Miss suffers a few more hiccups, they did it to themselves. Same with Ole Miss. Southern Miss can also look back at losses to Wichita State, Arizona, New Mexico State, and La Tech as missed opportunities to help the resume. There isn't a lot wrong with the resume of Southern Miss right now, but there isn't a lot that is going to help either.(2nd place in a 2nd tier conference, 0-3 vs top 50, 2-2 vs 51-100, 1 loss outside the top 100, etc.) That's why I think Southern Miss is going to have to find a way to beat Memphis at least once to get in this season. Will going 3-1 the rest of the way and reaching the conference finals be enough if they suffer 2 more losses to Memphis? That is the question that will have to be answered if it happens. I don't believe it will be enough, especially because the first tournament game will likely be against Marshall, UAB, Tulane, Houston, or maybe ECU or Tulsa; in other words not a win to hang your hat on.

Top xxx wins are already computed in the RPI. The RPI is all that should matter. If two teams have an identical RPI and team A has 7 top 100 wins and team B has zero, it just means that team A had some bad losses as well. Without those losses, their RPI would be higher.

Really? The RPI is all that should matter? You should join the selection committee and let them know that! Seriously, you can't make this out to be as simple as you want it to be. Top 25, 50, and 100 wins are used in the process. Sub 100 losses are also used in the process. Memphis has a resume littered with top 100 wins.(this is why they are in a different boat than Southern Miss) Cincy has a resume with 7. Southern Miss has 3. They are 77, 95, and 98. I cannot believe you would even try to argue that the RPI should be a factor over these wins.(and for what it's worth, your bad losses theory is incorrect. Cincy has 0, Southern Miss has 1) I want Southern Miss to get in as much as anybody, but there are better bubble teams to attack than Cincy.

Well, it means that Team B either had more bad losses OR more wins over weak competition. I wasn't attacking any team just stating my opinion on the RPI.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2013 05:32 PM by Funslinger.)
02-25-2013 05:29 PM
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Funslinger Offline
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Post: #50
RE: USM RPI #35 ... Cincy RPI #44
(02-25-2013 12:50 PM)StillJonesing Wrote:  Here is an example from last weekend. Rice is about as bad as you can get. Tulane beat them and moved up a spot. As long as you don't lose you don't drop unless multiple teams on your OOC schedule also lost.

**Tip-Off at 7:05pm CT**
in Houston,
Rice #311 (SOS: #142)
Tulane #152 (SOS: #220)

After the win Tulane was #151. Win and no harm more times than not.

Yes, the main reason a team could drop after a victory: most of the OOC opponents lost that day. Opponents' winning percentage is 50% of RPI while a team's own winning percentage is 25%. In fact, a day of OOC opponents going 0-10 at home can completely negate a win against a top 25 team.

The one big drawback of the RPI is not weighting victories based on the conference strength. A victory over a team that goes .500 in the toughest RPI conference should be considered a better victory than one over a team with a higher winning percentage in the weakest RPI conference. A simple modifier to conference winning percentage should fix that problem.

e.g. If Team A is in RPI conference #1, add .0031 (.0032 - conference rank) to their winning percentage for conference games. If Team B is in RPI conference #11, add .0021 to their winning percentage for conference games. If Team C is in RPI conference #32, add nothing.

So teams with .5000 winning percentages in conference would have adjusted winning percentages as follows:

RPI conference #1: .5031
#2: .5030
#3: .5029

#30: .5002
#31: .5001
#32: .5000

Since independents are not in a conference there would be no conference winning percentage to adjust.

Then the RPI SOS would include the opponents' and opponents' opponents' adjusted conference winning percentages.

FYI: the number one RPI conference is now projected to be the MWC by the end of the season per rpiforecast.com
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2013 06:29 PM by Funslinger.)
02-25-2013 05:39 PM
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