Since we have a thread devoted to the rankings of FB recruits I thought this was interesting. The fact that the article is from a web site called Sports for Dorks has no bearing on anything. Really.

Here is an excerpt:

"Among the 253 players selected in the 2012 NFL draft, just 11 draftees, including four first round picks, were considered 5-star college prospects (4.3% of all players taken). The majority of players (62.5%) were considered 3-star and 4-star prospects, while over one-third of selectees were considered 2-star prospects or were not graded at all."

http://sportsfordorks.squarespace.com/ho...-work.html

IMHO, this article actually ties into my other post about "tv dollars". In the long run it may actually give schools like us better players since every 5 star would most likely go to the wishing well....would be the purest of irony.

Nice factual data.

If you think about it though the stats on the NFL draft are hardly eye opening or anything.

So 5* was the lowest amount? Ok? They are the lowest amount in a given recruiting year too. 3* & 4* makeup the majority? Again shocker? No they also makeup the majority. Lastly 2 stars rounding out the end.

Interesting article but kinda states the obvious.

(02-01-2013 07:12 PM)MU ATO Wrote:  If you think about it though the stats on the NFL draft are hardly eye opening or anything.

So 5* was the lowest amount? Ok? They are the lowest amount in a given recruiting year too. 3* & 4* makeup the majority? Again shocker? No they also makeup the majority. Lastly 2 stars rounding out the end.

Interesting article but kinda states the obvious.

Doubt it was obvious that fully 1/3 of all drafted players are 2 star and less.

There are roughly 3,000 new football players that receive FBS scholarships every year. This year Rivals only ranks 26 of them as 5-star players. That's less than 1%.

Nearly 70% of all new players getting schollies are 2-star or unrated because services like Rivals only scout between 600 and 900 players a year.

Yes, you have guys who develop late, apply themselves with a much higher work ethic, come from some small school in the middle of nowhere so they are not scouted properly by the services, or whatever and make the NFL as two star guys (JJ Watt is a pretty good example), but statistically if you sign 4 and 5 star guys you have a better team than someone who signs 2 and 3 star guys. That's why schools like Alabama, LSU, USC, etc. are in the top 10 or top 20 every year. Their players are better.

I don't put much stock in the star rankings anymore. Look at our top rated recruits recently....D Brown the highest ranked player in the history of our program, and A Alford the highest ranked QB in the history of the program. Then compare them to A Davis, a walk on baseball player who is easily a Top 3 QB in the history of the program.

Getting higher ranked recruits is great because having higher ranked players showing an interest in your program is a good sign. But it doesn't always relate to success on the field.

(02-01-2013 10:38 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(02-01-2013 07:12 PM)MU ATO Wrote:  If you think about it though the stats on the NFL draft are hardly eye opening or anything.

So 5* was the lowest amount? Ok? They are the lowest amount in a given recruiting year too. 3* & 4* makeup the majority? Again shocker? No they also makeup the majority. Lastly 2 stars rounding out the end.

Interesting article but kinda states the obvious.

Doubt it was obvious that fully 1/3 of all drafted players are 2 star and less.

Yeah, that's the only unexpected part for me.

I think there is a general lack of understanding of the star system by most fans. I see plenty of talk on a lot of boards about 5 stars but they are rare...very rare even for the Big Boys. Alabama is the hands down best FB program in the nation right now and last year they had just two 5 star recruits. Last year in the Top 10 recruiting classes in the nation only two schools signed more then two 5 stars and that was Notre Dame with three and Southern Cal with an astounding six 5 stars. USC is on probation with limited recruits so they have focused in on the absolute best recruits they can sign with a limited class size. There were three schools in the Top 10 classes who signed no 5 stars.
By and large the best schools in the country make a living off of 4 star which generally make up 60-75% of their recruiting class and the rest 3 stars. CUSA schools will sign an occasional 4 star and most times they come with Academic or personal issues to get passed on by the big boys. We all get excited by these 4 stars because they have offers on their list from impressive schools but where we slurp the kool aid down is not admitting in most cases these kids were a back up offer for the big boys and they don't sweat it much when they drop down to a CUSA school. In some rare cases we do score a legitimate 4 star who wants to come to our school for playing time or personal reasons but from following this stuff for 15+yrs there is usually another reason a 4 star ends up at our level and I have watched more then a few 4 stars who showed up at ECU turn into a dud because of Academic or personal problems.

Boise St is the poster child for Non AQ success and their classes are almost always 3 star and 2 star mix. Even a fringe big boy school like WVU that has enjoyed BCS Bowl success and Top 10 history lives mainly on 3 stars and for 2013 they only have two 4 stars committed. Looking over the last 10yrs of WVU recruiting the most 4 stars they ever signed in one class was 6 but most years 2-4. Their run of Top 25 finishes and BCS Bowl wins had a bunch of 3 stars and 2 stars including Pat White and Steve Slaton who came in at 3 stars but played a huge role in their BCS Bowl wins.

The biggest change I have witnessed in recruting rankings is there is not much difference now between 2 and 3 stars and in a lot of cases the 2 stars just did not have film reviewed by the rating sites. We have also seen magical shifts in rating for some of the bigger schools with a ton of paying members on these rating sites. We all have witnessed how quickly a 4 star turns into a 3 star when they drop down to us from the big boys and on the flip side when they steal one of our 3 stars they turn into a 4 star. At the end of the day we are going to have to always coach up 3 and 2 star kids and hope we get those diamond in the rough who have not matured at 18 but turn into monsters by the time they are JR's and Sr's. It always comes down to coaching and getting the most our of kids. The super studs will always end up with the members of the Big 4

(02-02-2013 08:41 AM)ShoreBuc Wrote:  I think there is a general lack of understanding of the star system by most fans. I see plenty of talk on a lot of boards about 5 stars but they are rare...very rare even for the Big Boys. Alabama is the hands down best FB program in the nation right now and last year they had just two 5 star recruits. Last year in the Top 10 recruiting classes in the nation only two schools signed more then two 5 stars and that was Notre Dame with three and Southern Cal with an astounding six 5 stars. USC is on probation with limited recruits so they have focused in on the absolute best recruits they can sign with a limited class size. There were three schools in the Top 10 classes who signed no 5 stars.
By and large the best schools in the country make a living off of 4 star which generally make up 60-75% of their recruiting class and the rest 3 stars. CUSA schools will sign an occasional 4 star and most times they come with Academic or personal issues to get passed on by the big boys. We all get excited by these 4 stars because they have offers on their list from impressive schools but where we slurp the kool aid down is not admitting in most cases these kids were a back up offer for the big boys and they don't sweat it much when they drop down to a CUSA school. In some rare cases we do score a legitimate 4 star who wants to come to our school for playing time or personal reasons but from following this stuff for 15+yrs there is usually another reason a 4 star ends up at our level and I have watched more then a few 4 stars who showed up at ECU turn into a dud because of Academic or personal problems.

Boise St is the poster child for Non AQ success and their classes are almost always 3 star and 2 star mix. Even a fringe big boy school like WVU that has enjoyed BCS Bowl success and Top 10 history lives mainly on 3 stars and for 2013 they only have two 4 stars committed. Looking over the last 10yrs of WVU recruiting the most 4 stars they ever signed in one class was 6 but most years 2-4. Their run of Top 25 finishes and BCS Bowl wins had a bunch of 3 stars and 2 stars including Pat White and Steve Slaton who came in at 3 stars but played a huge role in their BCS Bowl wins.

The biggest change I have witnessed in recruting rankings is there is not much difference now between 2 and 3 stars and in a lot of cases the 2 stars just did not have film reviewed by the rating sites. We have also seen magical shifts in rating for some of the bigger schools with a ton of paying members on these rating sites. We all have witnessed how quickly a 4 star turns into a 3 star when they drop down to us from the big boys and on the flip side when they steal one of our 3 stars they turn into a 4 star. At the end of the day we are going to have to always coach up 3 and 2 star kids and hope we get those diamond in the rough who have not matured at 18 but turn into monsters by the time they are JR's and Sr's. It always comes down to coaching and getting the most our of kids. The super studs will always end up with the members of the Big 4

Great post

So, are the football ranking like basketball rankings in that a kid's ranking can drop depending on which school he chooses?

(02-02-2013 12:43 PM)VA49er Wrote:  So, are the football ranking like basketball rankings in that a kid's ranking can drop depending on which school he chooses?

Yeah it happens to Marshall all the time. Jeremiah Benjamin was lowered from a 4 to a 3 when he committed to Marshall this year. I'm sure people that follow recruitin closer than I can come up with many more examples.

No offense to USM, but you have to ask yourself why you got 2 five star guys. I think most of the misses in recruiting rankings are because they tend to look only at on-field accomplishments during HS and the level of competition those accomplishments come against. That is a big part of the equation but college coaches are more interested in the upside, work ethic, and how a players game will translate to the next level.

If you look around, there are several 4-stars that have pretty weak offer lists. Same with highly rated 3-stars. I put a lot more confidence in who is offering a kid than how he is rated. Even with that you have to take it with a grain of salt. Schools aren't allowed to say who they are recruiting. That info comes from the player or the player's coach most the time. There are several well documented instances where a kid will say he has an offer from someone he doesn't just to try to get other teams interested in him.

Then you have what I call the "Texas effect". Seems like every kid from Texas gets a one star bump simply because of the reputation of Texas football. That also happens in Florida if you happen to come out of a particular program.

End of the day, I never really get too pumped about a recruit till I see him in camp and can watch him practice.

(02-02-2013 08:41 AM)ShoreBuc Wrote:  I think there is a general lack of understanding of the star system by most fans. I see plenty of talk on a lot of boards about 5 stars but they are rare...very rare even for the Big Boys. Alabama is the hands down best FB program in the nation right now and last year they had just two 5 star recruits. Last year in the Top 10 recruiting classes in the nation only two schools signed more then two 5 stars and that was Notre Dame with three and Southern Cal with an astounding six 5 stars. USC is on probation with limited recruits so they have focused in on the absolute best recruits they can sign with a limited class size. There were three schools in the Top 10 classes who signed no 5 stars.
By and large the best schools in the country make a living off of 4 star which generally make up 60-75% of their recruiting class and the rest 3 stars. CUSA schools will sign an occasional 4 star and most times they come with Academic or personal issues to get passed on by the big boys. We all get excited by these 4 stars because they have offers on their list from impressive schools but where we slurp the kool aid down is not admitting in most cases these kids were a back up offer for the big boys and they don't sweat it much when they drop down to a CUSA school. In some rare cases we do score a legitimate 4 star who wants to come to our school for playing time or personal reasons but from following this stuff for 15+yrs there is usually another reason a 4 star ends up at our level and I have watched more then a few 4 stars who showed up at ECU turn into a dud because of Academic or personal problems.

Boise St is the poster child for Non AQ success and their classes are almost always 3 star and 2 star mix. Even a fringe big boy school like WVU that has enjoyed BCS Bowl success and Top 10 history lives mainly on 3 stars and for 2013 they only have two 4 stars committed. Looking over the last 10yrs of WVU recruiting the most 4 stars they ever signed in one class was 6 but most years 2-4. Their run of Top 25 finishes and BCS Bowl wins had a bunch of 3 stars and 2 stars including Pat White and Steve Slaton who came in at 3 stars but played a huge role in their BCS Bowl wins.

The biggest change I have witnessed in recruting rankings is there is not much difference now between 2 and 3 stars and in a lot of cases the 2 stars just did not have film reviewed by the rating sites. We have also seen magical shifts in rating for some of the bigger schools with a ton of paying members on these rating sites. We all have witnessed how quickly a 4 star turns into a 3 star when they drop down to us from the big boys and on the flip side when they steal one of our 3 stars they turn into a 4 star. At the end of the day we are going to have to always coach up 3 and 2 star kids and hope we get those diamond in the rough who have not matured at 18 but turn into monsters by the time they are JR's and Sr's. It always comes down to coaching and getting the most our of kids. The super studs will always end up with the members of the Big 4

TCU falls into that same category with the exception of the fact that they are sitting in the middle of tons of players. Their recruiting budget can be relatively small compared to most of ours.

(02-02-2013 08:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  

(02-01-2013 10:38 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(02-01-2013 07:12 PM)MU ATO Wrote:  If you think about it though the stats on the NFL draft are hardly eye opening or anything.

So 5* was the lowest amount? Ok? They are the lowest amount in a given recruiting year too. 3* & 4* makeup the majority? Again shocker? No they also makeup the majority. Lastly 2 stars rounding out the end.

Interesting article but kinda states the obvious.

Doubt it was obvious that fully 1/3 of all drafted players are 2 star and less.

Yeah, that's the only unexpected part for me.

It's a little bit surprising to me that, based on the numbers, only 1/3 of the 5 star players get drafted. I'm sure that almost all of those guys rated that high have NFL aspirations and 2/3s aren't drafted at all, much less make a team. In 2 of 3 cases, either the player or the recruiting services were way off in expectations.