(01-28-2013 10:48 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:36 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  This is interesting, our SOS is 250, the toughest of the new C-USA.

huh?

Some of these new guys got a lot of catching up to do.
FTB was doggin' on USM football the other day. They will learn soon enough.

(01-28-2013 11:14 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I think Memphis and Southern Miss will both make the NCAAs unless one of them takes a bunch of bad losses.

Obviously, I hope that's true.

My comment was based on the probability that rpi's could be headed somewhat downward since all but a game or two will be within the conference. Just looking at the numbers, our conference average rpi must be in the 140s-150s, so it's going to be hard to improve much.

I follow you. Fortunately, 3 of the worst 4 RPI are in the west, so given the current scheduling, USM and UM will only face the really bad RPI squads once.

(01-28-2013 10:36 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:14 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:03 AM)Chappy Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I think Memphis and Southern Miss will both make the NCAAs unless one of them takes a bunch of bad losses.

Obviously, I hope that's true.

My comment was based on the probability that rpi's could be headed somewhat downward since all but a game or two will be within the conference. Just looking at the numbers, our conference average rpi must be in the 140s-150s, so it's going to be hard to improve much.

I follow you. Fortunately, 3 of the worst 4 RPI are in the west, so given the current scheduling, USM and UM will only face the really bad RPI squads once.

With the tourney being in tulsa, every game for usm and mem is huge for an at large....it is very possible neither will win it this year...my guess is three total including tourney loss to get a look...gonna be intreresting how it plays out

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

My comments were based on looking at the history above.

In the CUSA II era, the following at large bids have been awarded:
USM rpi 21 9 seed
UAB rpi 31 12 seed
UTEP rpi 38 12 seed
none
none
none
UAB rpi 32 9 seed

No CUSA II program with an rpi higher than 38 has ever received an at large bid, and even UAB with a 31 rpi was (unfairly) singled out as undeserved. With current rpi's of 40 and 48, it's going to be a challenge for either USM/UM to get an at large bid.

I'm no expert and don't claim to be, so folks that know more can correct any of my assumptions, etc. I'm not saying that it's impossible to get 2 teams in, but it's not a slam-dunk. I just think that it's an uphill battle from a conference perception standpoint, as unfair as it is.

I agree. To get two we probably need one of them to go undefeated until the conference final and then lose.

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

I know we lost one in the conference tourney, but the tourney is post season. I said we lost 7 regular season games and we did.

(01-29-2013 11:34 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

My comments were based on looking at the history above.

In the CUSA II era, the following at large bids have been awarded:
USM rpi 21 9 seed
UAB rpi 31 12 seed
UTEP rpi 38 12 seed
none
none
none
UAB rpi 32 9 seed

No CUSA II program with an rpi higher than 38 has ever received an at large bid, and even UAB with a 31 rpi was (unfairly) singled out as undeserved. With current rpi's of 40 and 48, it's going to be a challenge for either USM/UM to get an at large bid.

I'm no expert and don't claim to be, so folks that know more can correct any of my assumptions, etc. I'm not saying that it's impossible to get 2 teams in, but it's not a slam-dunk. I just think that it's an uphill battle from a conference perception standpoint, as unfair as it is.

Again, rpiforecast.com is a very useful resource. According to their forecast, we are predicted to go 13-3 in conf. finish 22-7 overall and have an rpi in the 26-28 range. If we finish 12-4, 21-8 we will be in the 35 range. There is room to move up in conference play and Mempis and Southern Miss have a chance to gain at-large bids. Now, if a team other than Memphis or Southern Miss were to win the conf. tourney I don't think the Committee would let more than 2 teams from C-USA in, so one would be the odd man out.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

(01-30-2013 01:07 PM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:34 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

My comments were based on looking at the history above.

In the CUSA II era, the following at large bids have been awarded:
USM rpi 21 9 seed
UAB rpi 31 12 seed
UTEP rpi 38 12 seed
none
none
none
UAB rpi 32 9 seed

No CUSA II program with an rpi higher than 38 has ever received an at large bid, and even UAB with a 31 rpi was (unfairly) singled out as undeserved. With current rpi's of 40 and 48, it's going to be a challenge for either USM/UM to get an at large bid.

I'm no expert and don't claim to be, so folks that know more can correct any of my assumptions, etc. I'm not saying that it's impossible to get 2 teams in, but it's not a slam-dunk. I just think that it's an uphill battle from a conference perception standpoint, as unfair as it is.

Again, rpiforecast.com is a very useful resource. According to their forecast, we are predicted to go 13-3 in conf. finish 22-7 overall and have an rpi in the 26-28 range. If we finish 12-4, 21-8 we will be in the 35 range. There is room to move up in conference play and Mempis and Southern Miss have a chance to gain at-large bids. Now, if a team other than Memphis or Southern Miss were to win the conf. tourney I don't think the Committee would let more than 2 teams from C-USA in, so one would be the odd man out.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Not sure what "again" refers to, perhaps I missed you stating this before; but thanks for the info.

If both teams win the games they are supposed to win there's a good chance for the conference to get 2 in. That's good news and using that resource, even the team that doesn't win the tournament has its destiny in its own hands. Frankly, we've not been playing to our potential and it's a little worrisome. Perhaps tonight we break out of a plateau we've been in.

(01-30-2013 01:24 PM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-30-2013 01:07 PM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:34 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

My comments were based on looking at the history above.

In the CUSA II era, the following at large bids have been awarded:
USM rpi 21 9 seed
UAB rpi 31 12 seed
UTEP rpi 38 12 seed
none
none
none
UAB rpi 32 9 seed

No CUSA II program with an rpi higher than 38 has ever received an at large bid, and even UAB with a 31 rpi was (unfairly) singled out as undeserved. With current rpi's of 40 and 48, it's going to be a challenge for either USM/UM to get an at large bid.

I'm no expert and don't claim to be, so folks that know more can correct any of my assumptions, etc. I'm not saying that it's impossible to get 2 teams in, but it's not a slam-dunk. I just think that it's an uphill battle from a conference perception standpoint, as unfair as it is.

Again, rpiforecast.com is a very useful resource. According to their forecast, we are predicted to go 13-3 in conf. finish 22-7 overall and have an rpi in the 26-28 range. If we finish 12-4, 21-8 we will be in the 35 range. There is room to move up in conference play and Mempis and Southern Miss have a chance to gain at-large bids. Now, if a team other than Memphis or Southern Miss were to win the conf. tourney I don't think the Committee would let more than 2 teams from C-USA in, so one would be the odd man out.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Not sure what "again" refers to, perhaps I missed you stating this before; but thanks for the info.

If both teams win the games they are supposed to win there's a good chance for the conference to get 2 in. That's good news and using that resource, even the team that doesn't win the tournament has its destiny in its own hands. Frankly, we've not been playing to our potential and it's a little worrisome. Perhaps tonight we break out of a plateau we've been in.

That wasn't meant as a dig at anyone; I've posted a link to rpiforecast.com here before as well as other boards. I am big advocate of theirs because it allows you to see where your team will stand based on different scenarios.

(01-29-2013 02:32 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 09:52 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  Looking at the current RPI/SOS numbers and assuming that SUM/UM/UTEP each win some games against each other, I struggle with figuring out how the conference will have more than 1 bid this year.

I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

I know we lost one in the conference tourney, but the tourney is post season. I said we lost 7 regular season games and we did.

I agreed with you...just saying the tournament matters and is a large factor with the committee (w/l late in the schedule). If USM or MEM doesn't win the tournament, then I have a scary suspicion we will get left out. MEM just has more clout. ...is going to be interesting moving forward that is certain

(01-30-2013 01:27 PM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  That wasn't meant as a dig at anyone; I've posted a link to rpiforecast.com here before as well as other boards.

No problem, I just thought that I had missed something.

(01-30-2013 01:40 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 02:32 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 11:09 AM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 08:30 AM)usm99 Wrote:  I like USM's chances of a possible at large against considering our remaining schedule...I am not saying we will win out but here is my thinking:

We have already played Marshall once (at home), UAB once (at home), Rice, SMU, and Houston. Those teams have the worst RPI's in the conference. Our remaining 10 games, we are on the road at UAB and Marshall who have bad rpi's, UCF and ECU who are in the 100-125 range, and Memphis who is top 50. At home we have Memphis (top 50), UTEP (top 75), ECU and UCF (top 125), and Tulane (top 150). I still think USM will lose 3-4 games by regular season's end. As long as those losses aren't at UAB/Marshall and at home to Tulane I "would think" that would be enough to get us in as we would have a 21-8/22-9 record with no bad losses. Assuming we win 6/7 of remaining 10 without above mentioned losses I think our RPI would be in the 30 range. Key is beating Memphis and UTEP. Fun/exciting times ahead

We only had 7 regular season losses last season. We also had a tougher schedule. Unless our opponents win most of their games down the stretch, we will not get an at-large bid with more than 6 regular season losses.

...lost 8 chief including tourney loss which matters...you are right about the SOS

I know we lost one in the conference tourney, but the tourney is post season. I said we lost 7 regular season games and we did.

I agreed with you...just saying the tournament matters and is a large factor with the committee (w/l late in the schedule). If USM or MEM doesn't win the tournament, then I have a scary suspicion we will get left out. MEM just has more clout. ...is going to be interesting moving forward that is certain

Agreed. If we don't win the tourney, we need Memphis to win it.

ODU has never been this bad before. I don't even know what to say. I can barely stomach going to a game. :(

You know what I take from all of these numbers........


ECU IS NO LONGER THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE!!!!!!!

(01-31-2013 02:12 PM)Topcard91 Wrote:  You know what I take from all of these numbers........


ECU IS NO LONGER THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE!!!!!!!

Based on rpi, you're in the top half and closer to the top than bottom.

Won't be the worst team in your new conference home either.

Looks like those days may be long gone