Data below includes all games played through Sunday January 27, 2013. The RPI numbers come from WarrenNolan.com.

The RPI story for the Tigers over this past week has been the deterioration of Memphis' strength of schedule. Part of this was certainly due to playing RPI dead weights Tulane and Marshall. However, it was also due to the poor performance of many of Memphis' non-conference opponents.

The Tigers' non-conference opponents went 10-18 last week. And it mostly wasn't the lesser name teams that contributed to this poor record. Among those, only North Florida and Austin Peay failed to get a win. It was those from the name programs that collectively laid an egg. VCU, Minnesota, Louisville, Tennessee and Xavier combined to go 1-9 last week. All this has resulted in a predicted RPI SOS at the end of the season for the Tigers of #101 according to WarrenNolan.com. That would clearly rank this year's schedule as the worst of the Josh Pastner era at Memphis and the second worst for the program going back to the 1993-94 season (only the 2001-02 season would have had a weaker schedule and that season's poor slate was partly the reason that team went to the NIT instead of the NCAA as an at-large).

The RPI SOS for the Tigers is just an additional piece of bad news to go with the lack of RPI top 50 wins (or top 75, for that matter). All of this places added pressure on the team to do everything possible to avoid more than a loss or two the rest of the way if they want to garner an at-large bid to the Dance and especially if they want decent seeding (they may have to win out for that). Hopefully some of the non-conference opponents of the Tigers will start to get it together and go on extended winning streaks. There are a few already doing their part, such as Ohio (6-0 in the MAC) and Oral Roberts (winners of 7 of 8 since the Memphis game). Most likely though, the onus will be on the Tigers to continue their winning ways because the numbers are just not going to improve enough to turn their sub-par resume into something that will impress the Committee.


MEMPHIS (16-3, 5-0)
RPI: #48 (SOS: #115)
Non-Conference RPI: #56
Non-Conference RPI strength of schedule: #97
**The combined win-loss record of the Tigers' non-conference opponents (vs. Division 1 opponents only): 154-138 (.527)
Conference RPI: #52
Conference RPI strength of schedule: #223
Record vs. RPI 1-25: 0-2
Record vs. RPI 26-50: 0-1
Record vs. RPI 51-75: 0-0
Record vs. RPI 76-100: 4-0
Record vs. RPI 101-200: 6-0
Record vs. RPI 201-347: 6-0
Sagarin: #42 (SOS: #169)
Pomeroy: #57 (SOS: #227)
Record one year ago today: 14-6, 5-1
2011-12 Final RPI: #16 (SOS: #20)
**Current predicted RPI finish according to WarrenNolan.com: 25-6, 14-2…#40 (SOS: #101)
**Current expected RPI finish according to RPIForecast.com: 24-7, 13-3…#35 (SOS: #87)



**Current RPI of the Tigers' non-conference opponents**
(in parenthesis is each team’s record vs. Division 1 opponents only)
-W…North Florida (7-14, 3-6): #249 (SOS: #226)
-W…Samford (6-13, 5-2): #298 (SOS: #302)
-L…vs. #19/#16 Virginia Commonwealth (16-5, 4-2): #39 (SOS: #59)
-L…vs. #12/#14 Minnesota (15-5, 3-4): #11 (SOS: #3)
-W…vs. Northern Iowa (10-10, 4-5): #103 (SOS: #44)
-W…Tennessee-Martin (3-16, 2-7): #309 (SOS: #198)
-W…Ohio (15-5, 6-0): #97 (SOS: #234)
-W…Austin Peay (3-17, 1-7): #340 (SOS: #303)
-L…#5/#5 Louisville (16-4, 4-3): #13 (SOS: #11)
-W…Lipscomb (7-12, 3-6): #233 (SOS: #212)
-W…Oral Roberts (11-8, 7-1): #98 (SOS: #117)
-W…Loyola-Maryland (15-7, 7-3): #122 (SOS: #214)
-W…@ Tennessee (10-8, 2-4): #79 (SOS: #30)
-W…Harvard (9-6, 2-0): #91 (SOS: #122)
-?…@ Xavier (11-8, 4-2): #72 (SOS: #49)


**Current RPI of the Tigers' Conference USA opponents**
(in parenthesis is each team’s record vs. Division 1 opponents only)
-W…East Carolina (8-7, 3-3): #116 (SOS: #89)
-W…@ UAB (7-12, 0-5): #172 (SOS: #72)
-W…@ Rice (3-14, 0-5): #308 (SOS: #154)
-W…Tulane (13-6, 2-3): #146 (SOS: #264)
-W…Marshall (8-11, 2-3): #192 (SOS: #104)
-?…@ East Carolina (8-7, 3-3): #116 (SOS: #89)
-?…Tulsa (11-9, 4-3): #112 (SOS: #114)
-?…@ SMU (10-10, 1-5): #183 (SOS: #190)
-?…@ Southern Mississippi (15-4, 6-0): #40 (SOS: #142)
-?…UCF (13-5, 4-1): #104 (SOS: #161)
-?…@ Marshall (8-11, 2-3): #192 (SOS: #104)
-?…Houston (12-6, 2-4): #217 (SOS: #335)
-?…Southern Mississippi (15-4, 6-0): #40 (SOS: #142)
-?…@ UCF (13-5, 4-1): #104 (SOS: #161)
-?…@ UTEP (11-7, 4-1): #64 (SOS: #32)
-?…UAB (7-12, 0-5): #172 (SOS: #72)


CONFERENCE USA
RPI: #11
Sagarin: #12
**Record overall: 141-95 (.597)
**Record vs. Conference USA opponents: 33-33 (.500)
**Record vs. non-conference opponents: 108-62 (.635)
**Record vs. Division 1 non-conference opponents: 94-61 (.606)
**Record vs. non-Division 1 non-conference opponents: 14-1 (.933)
Record vs. the ACC: 0-7
Record vs. the Big East: 1-5
Record vs. the Big Ten: 1-2
Record vs. the Big XII: 3-5
Record vs. the Pac 12: 2-3
Record vs. the SEC: 3-4
**Record vs. the "big 6" conferences: 10-26 (.278)
Record vs. the Atlantic 10: 0-6
Record vs. the Missouri Valley: 3-6
Record vs. the Mountain West: 1-3
Record vs. the West Coast: 3-1
**Record vs. the top 10 conferences (the “big 6”, Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, Mountain West and West Coast): 17-42 (.288)
**Record vs. non-top 10 conferences (including independents) in Division 1 (excluding C-USA): 77-19 (.802)
**Record vs. ranked non-conference opponents (AP): 0-10 (East Carolina: 0-1; Marshall: 0-1; Memphis: 0-1; Southern Mississippi: 0-1; Tulsa: 0-1; UCF: 0-1; UAB: 0-2; UTEP: 0-2)
**Record vs. non-conference opponents at HOME: 82-14 (.854)
**Record vs. non-conference opponents AWAY: 18-32 (.360)
**Record vs. non-conference opponents on a NEUTRAL court: 8-16 (.333)


**Current RPI of each member of Conference USA**
(in parenthesis is each team’s record vs. Division 1 opponents only)
-Southern Mississippi (15-4, 6-0): #40 (SOS: #142)
-Memphis (16-3, 5-0): #48 (SOS: #115)
-UTEP (11-7, 4-1): #64 (SOS: #32)
-UCF (13-5, 4-1): #104 (SOS: #161)
-Tulsa (11-9, 4-3): #112 (SOS: #114)
-East Carolina (8-7, 3-3): #116 (SOS: #89)
-Tulane (13-6, 2-3): #146 (SOS: #264)
-UAB (7-12, 0-5): #172 (SOS: #72)
-SMU (10-10, 1-5): #183 (SOS: #190)
-Marshall (8-11, 2-3): #192 (SOS: #104)
-Houston (12-6, 2-4): #217 (SOS: #335)
-Rice (3-14, 0-5): #308 (SOS: #154)


Remaining Non-Conference Games for Conference USA Teams
Memphis
-02/26: @ Xavier (11-8)...RPI: #72 (SOS: #49)
UCF
-02/26: Georgia Southwestern (Non-Division 1)
UTEP
-02/23: @ New Mexico State (12-8)...RPI: #78 (SOS: #82)


**Current RPI ranking of the top 10 conferences in Division 1**
(each conference’s record is vs. Division 1 non-conference opponents only)
1. Big Ten…121-31 (.796)…0.5923
2. Mountain West…86-26 (.768)…0.5870
3. Big East…151-34 (.816)…0.5867
4. ACC…114-37 (.755)…0.5762
5. Big XII…89-33 (.730)…0.5697
6. Pac 12…109-41 (.727)…0.5696
7. Atlantic 10…143-77 (.650)…0.5547
8. SEC…117-58 (.669)…0.5485
9. Missouri Valley…68-42 (.618)…0.5366
10. West Coast…69-44 (.611)…0.5328
--------------------------------------------------
11. Conference USA…94-61 (.607)…0.5173


Conference USA’s RPI Finish Year-By-Year
2012-13 (so far): 0.5173 (#11)
2011-12: 0.5292 (#9)
2010-11: 0.5366 (#8)
2009-10: 0.5170 (#11)
2008-09: 0.5206 (#10)
2007-08: 0.5178 (#10)
2006-07: 0.5088 (#11)
2005-06: 0.5015 (#13)
2004-05: 0.5336 (#9)
2003-04: 0.5490 (#5)
2002-03: 0.5447 (#8)
2001-02: 0.5388 (#8)
2000-01: 0.5259 (#10)
1999-00: 0.5583 (#5)
1998-99: 0.5452 (#6)
1997-98: 0.5355 (#8)
1996-97: 0.5341 (#9)
1995-96: 0.5624 (#5)


Memphis Tigers’ RPI History
(Tigers' record consists of W-L's vs. only Division 1 opponents thru all games played in the regular season and conference tournament):
-2011-12: 26-8...#16 (SOS: #20)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#8 seed in the West Region)
-2010-11: 25-9...#28 (SOS: #46)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#12 seed in the West Region)
-2009-10: 23-9...#53 (SOS: #85)...postseason: NIT
-2008-09: 31-3...#7 (SOS: #49)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#2 seed in the West Region)
-2007-08: 33-1...#3 (SOS: #27)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#1 seed in the South Region)
-2006-07: 30-3...#8 (SOS: #75)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#2 seed in the South Region)
-2005-06: 30-3...#4 (SOS: #31)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#1 seed in the West Region)
-2004-05: 19-15...#109 (SOS: #80)...postseason: NIT
-2003-04: 21-7...#32 (SOS: #65)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#7 seed in the East Region)
-2002-03: 23-6...#26 (SOS: #77)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#7 seed in the West Region)
-2001-02: 21-9...#69 (SOS: #128)...postseason: NIT
-2000-01: 16-14...#95 (SOS: #68)...postseason: NIT
-1999-00: 14-16...#122 (SOS: #68)...postseason: None
-1998-99: 13-15...#124 (SOS: #79)...postseason: None
-1997-98: 16-11...#66 (SOS: #62)...postseason: NIT
-1996-97: 16-14...#72 (SOS: #33)...postseason: NIT
-1995-96: 22-7...#15 (SOS: #27)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#5 seed in the West Region)
-1994-95: 22-9...#31 (SOS: #54)...postseason: NCAA Tournament (#6 seed in the Midwest Region)
-1993-94: 13-16...#90 (SOS: #32)...postseason: None


Memphis Tigers’ NCAA Tournament Seeding History
(Tigers' record consists of W-L's vs. all opponents thru all games played in the regular season and conference tournament):
-2012: 26-8...#8 seed in West Region...SECOND ROUND finish
-2011: 25-9...#12 seed in the West Region...SECOND ROUND finish
-2009: 31-3...#2 seed in the West Region...SWEET SIXTEEN finish
-2008: 33-1...#1 seed in the South Region...RUNNER-UP finish
-2007: 30-3...#2 seed in the South Region...ELITE EIGHT finish
-2006: 30-3...#1 seed in the West Region...ELITE EIGHT finish
-2004: 21-7...#7 seed in the East Region...SECOND ROUND finish
-2003: 23-6...#7 seed in the West Region...FIRST ROUND finish
-1996: 22-7...#5 seed in the West Region...FIRST ROUND finish
-1995: 22-9...#6 seed in the Midwest Region...SWEET SIXTEEN finish
-1993: 20-11...#10 seed in the Southeast Region...FIRST ROUND finish
-1992: 20-10...#6 seed in the Midwest Region...ELITE EIGHT finish
-1989: 21-10...#5 seed in the West Region...FIRST ROUND finish
-1988: 19-11...#9 seed in the Midwest Region...SECOND ROUND finish
-1986: 27-5...#3 seed in the Southeast Region...SECOND ROUND finish
-1985: 27-3...#2 seed in the Midwest Region...FINAL FOUR finish
-1984: 24-6...#6 seed in the Midwest Region...SWEET SIXTEEN finish
-1983: 22-7...#4 seed in the Midwest Region...SWEET SIXTEEN finish
-1982: 23-4...#2 seed in the East Region...SWEET SIXTEEN finish
**All NCAA Tournaments prior to 1979 were not seeded, thus the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament appearances in 1955, 1956, 1962, 1973 and 1976 are not included in the above list


Conference USA’s RPI History
(Team’s records consist of W-L's vs. only Division 1 opponents thru all games played in the regular season and conference tournament):
2011-12
C-USA RPI: #9
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 2
*Memphis (26-8)…RPI: #16 (SOS: #20)…received #8 seed (West Region)
*Southern Mississippi (23-8)…RPI: #21 (SOS: #47)…received #9 seed (East Region)

2010-11
C-USA RPI: #8
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 2
*Memphis (25-9)…RPI: #28 (SOS: #46)…received #12 seed (West Region)
*UAB (22-8)…RPI: #31 (SOS: #78)…received #12 seed (East Region)

2009-10
C-USA RPI: #11
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 2
*UTEP (26-6)…RPI: #38 (SOS: #111)…received #12 seed (West Region)
*Houston (18-15)…RPI: #110 (SOS: #106)...received #14 seed (Midwest Region)

2008-09
C-USA RPI: #10
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 1
*Memphis (31-3)…RPI: #7 (SOS: #49)…received #2 seed (West Region)

2007-08
C-USA RPI: #10
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 1
*Memphis (33-1)…RPI: #3 (SOS: #27)…received #1 seed (South Region)

2006-07
C-USA RPI: #11
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 1
*Memphis (30-3)…RPI: #8 (SOS: #75)…received #2 seed (South Region)

2005-06
C-USA RPI: #13
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 2
*Memphis (30-3)…RPI: #4 (SOS: #31)…received #1 seed (West Region)
*UAB (23-6)…RPI: #32 (SOS: #115)…received #9 seed (East Region)

2004-05
C-USA RPI: #9
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 4
*Louisville (27-4)…RPI: #12 (SOS: #54)…received #4 seed (West Region)
*Cincinnati (24-7)…RPI: #24 (SOS: #53)…received #7 seed (South Region)
*Charlotte (21-7)…RPI: #31 (SOS: #99)…received #7 seed (East Region)
*UAB (21-10)…RPI: #49 (SOS: #92)…received #11 seed (Midwest Region)

2003-04
C-USA RPI: #5
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 6
*Cincinnati (24-6)…RPI: #11 (SOS: #23)…received #4 seed (South Region)
*DePaul (21-9)…RPI: #37 (SOS: #51)…received #7 seed (West Region)
*Memphis (21-7)…RPI: #32 (SOS: #65)…received #7 seed (East Region)
*Charlotte (21-8)…RPI: #34 (SOS: #58)…received #9 seed (East Region)
*UAB (20-9)…RPI: #33 (SOS: #35)…received #9 seed (Midwest Region)
*Louisville (20-9)…RPI: #24 (SOS: #16)…received #10 seed (South Region)

2002-03
C-USA RPI: #8
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 4
*Marquette (23-5)…RPI: #10 (SOS: #39)…received #3 seed (Midwest Region)
*Louisville (24-6)…RPI: #11 (SOS: #26)…received #4 seed (East Region)
*Memphis (23-6)…RPI: #26 (SOS: #77)…received #7 seed (West Region)
*Cincinnati (17-11)…RPI: #29 (SOS: #9)…received #8 seed (West Region)

2001-02
C-USA RPI: #8
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 3
*Cincinnati (30-3)…RPI: #2 (SOS: #23)…received #1 seed (West Region)
*Marquette (26-6)…RPI: #23 (SOS: #87)…received #5 seed (East Region)
*Charlotte (18-11)…RPI: #37 (SOS: #22)…received #9 seed (South Region)

2000-01
C-USA RPI: #10
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 2
*Cincinnati (23-9)…RPI: #31 (SOS: #63)…received #5 seed (West Region)
*Charlotte (21-10)…RPI: #48 (SOS: #77)…received #9 seed (Midwest Region)

1999-00
C-USA RPI: #5
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 4
*Cincinnati (28-3)…RPI: #1 (SOS: #5)…received #2 seed (South Region)
*Louisville (18-11)…RPI: #29 (SOS: #15)…received #7 seed (West Region)
*DePaul (20-11)…RPI: #30 (SOS: #25)…received #9 seed (East Region)
*Saint Louis (19-13)…RPI: #33 (SOS: #10)…received #9 seed (Midwest Region)

1998-99
C-USA RPI: #6
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 4
*Cincinnati (25-5)…RPI: #9 (SOS: #35)…received #3 seed (East Region)
*Charlotte (22-10)…RPI: #19 (SOS: #18)…received #5 seed (Midwest Region)
*Louisville (19-10)…RPI: #22 (SOS: #21)…received #7 seed (South Region)
*UAB (20-11)…RPI: #48 (SOS: #68)…received #12 seed (West Region)

1997-98
C-USA RPI: #8
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 3
*Cincinnati (26-5)…RPI: #16 (SOS: #71)…received #2 seed (West Region)
*Charlotte (19-10)…RPI: #31 (SOS: #20)…received #8 seed (East Region)
*Saint Louis (21-10)…RPI: #47 (SOS: #75)…received #10 seed (South Region)

1996-97
C-USA RPI: #9
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 4
*Cincinnati (25-7)…RPI: #13 (SOS: #47)…received #3 seed (Midwest Region)
*Louisville (23-8)…RPI: #18 (SOS: #56)…received #6 seed (East Region)
*Charlotte (21-8)…RPI: #27 (SOS: #62)…received #7 seed (West Region)
*Marquette (22-8)…RPI: #51 (SOS: #106)…received #7 seed (Southeast Region)

1995-96
C-USA RPI: #5
C-USA schools receiving NCAA Tournament invitations: 4
*Cincinnati (25-4)…RPI: #4 (SOS: #19)…received #2 seed (Southeast Region)
*Marquette (22-7)…RPI: #23 (SOS: #47)…received #4 seed (East Region)
*Memphis (22-7)…RPI: #15 (SOS: #27)…received #5 seed (West Region)
*Louisville (19-11)…RPI: #19 (SOS: #5)…received #6 seed (Midwest Region)

**Current RPI of each member of the future Big East (probable 2014-15 version)**
(in parenthesis is each team’s record vs. Division 1 opponents only)
-Cincinnati (16-4, 4-3): #27 (SOS: #24)
-Connecticut (13-5, 3-3): #28 (SOS: #8)
-Memphis (16-3, 5-0): #48 (SOS: #115)
-Temple (13-6, 2-3): #56 (SOS: #68)
-USF (10-9, 1-6): #87 (SOS: #20)
-UCF (13-5, 4-1): #104 (SOS: #161)
-Tulsa (11-9, 4-3): #112 (SOS: #114)*
-East Carolina (8-7, 3-3): #116 (SOS: #89)
-Tulane (13-6, 2-3): #146 (SOS: #264)
-SMU (10-10, 1-5): #183 (SOS: #190)
-Houston (12-6, 2-4): #217 (SOS: #335)

*Assuming East Carolina and Tulsa are added for all-sports


**Current RPI of each member of the future Conference USA (probable 2014-15 version)**
(in parenthesis is each team’s record vs. Division 1 opponents only)
-Middle Tennessee (18-4, 10-1): #35 (SOS: #110)
-Southern Mississippi (15-4, 6-0): #40 (SOS: #142)
-Louisiana Tech (18-3, 9-0): #42 (SOS: #187)
-Charlotte (16-4, 4-2): #54 (SOS: #143)
-UTEP (11-7, 4-1): #64 (SOS: #32)
-FIU (11-9, 6-5): #136 (SOS: #170)
-UAB (7-12, 0-5): #172 (SOS: #72)
-Western Kentucky (10-11, 5-6): #174 (SOS: #152)*
-Marshall (8-11, 2-3): #192 (SOS: #104)
-FAU (9-12, 5-6): #207 (SOS: #217)
-North Texas (7-13, 3-8): #256 (SOS: #169)
-UTSA (5-14, 1-8): #277 (SOS: #250)
-Rice (3-14, 0-5): #308 (SOS: #154)
-Old Dominion (2-17, 0-7): #323 (SOS: #185)

*Assuming Tulsa leaves for the Big East and Western Kentucky is added

**Current RPI of each member of next season's version of the Big East**
(in parenthesis is each team’s record vs. Division 1 opponents only)
-Louisville (16-4, 4-3): #13 (SOS: #11)
-Marquette (14-4, 5-1): #20 (SOS: #21)
-Cincinnati (16-4, 4-3): #27 (SOS: #24)
-Connecticut (13-5, 3-3): #28 (SOS: #8)
-Georgetown (14-4, 4-3): #38 (SOS: #69)
-Notre Dame (16-4, 4-3): #46 (SOS: #79)
-Memphis (16-3, 5-0): #48 (SOS: #115)
-Villanova (12-7, 4-3): #49 (SOS: #26)
-Saint John's (13-7, 5-3): #51 (SOS: #27)
-Temple (13-6, 2-3): #56 (SOS: #68)
-Rutgers (12-7, 3-5): #57 (SOS: #37)
-USF (10-9, 1-6): #87 (SOS: #20)
-Seton Hall (13-7, 2-5): #93 (SOS: #119)
-UCF (13-5, 4-1): #104 (SOS: #161)
-Providence (10-10, 2-6): #121 (SOS: #52)
-DePaul (10-9, 1-5): #176 (SOS: #157)
-SMU (10-10, 1-5): #183 (SOS: #190)
-Houston (12-6, 2-4): #217 (SOS: #335)

Thanks again, JMS. Although distasteful, we need Louisville and UTK to win. I think VCU will bounce back this week.

The good news is it appears Ohio and Oral Roberts are on a positive roll.

Here is our RPI projections acording to rpiforecast.com:

Final Record / Expected RPI
28-3 / 14.6
27-4 / 18.3
26-5 / 23.3
25-6 / 29.4
24-7 / 36.2
23-8 / 43.5
22-9 / 52.0
21-10 / 61.9

Based on these projections, we can lose 3 more games and have an RPI in the top 30. The past few days our OOC opponents have played so bad (as JMS referenced) that the projected RPI for the Tiger's with 3 losses went from 27 to 29. That's actually a big move even at this point in the season. If we can keep it to 3 losses and have an RPI in the top 30, will be almost assured an at-large bid. If we lose 4 more, it's looking like an RPI of about 36. That would probably be giving us close to a 50/50 shot of making the tournament.

A realistic goal that would get us in the Tourney as an at large would be to lose no more than 3 games. (2 regular season, 1 CUSA Tourney) It's going to be very tough, and it starts Wednesday @ ECU.

IF Memphis were to lose in the CUSA tourney here what I see as only ways to get in at-large:

Go undefeated the rest of regular season;

If Memphis loses to Xavier, have to win out in conference.

If Memphis beats Xavier, Memphis can lose no more than two road conference games.

(01-28-2013 10:39 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  IF Memphis were to lose in the CUSA tourney here what I see as only ways to get in at-large:

Go undefeated the rest of regular season;

If Memphis loses to Xavier, have to win out in conference.

If Memphis beats Xavier, Memphis can lose no more than two road conference games.

Really the bottom line is if Memphis were to lose in the CUSA tourney, they could lose 2 more. It really would not matter who we lost to in those 2 losses. The RPI would still average out to about top 30. There is less than a 5% chance you get left out in the RPI top 30 no matter who you beat or didn't beat.

(01-28-2013 07:35 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Thanks again, JMS. Although distasteful, we need Louisville and UTK to win. I think VCU will bounce back this week.

The good news is it appears Ohio and Oral Roberts are on a positive roll.

you said oral

(01-28-2013 10:54 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  There is less than a 5% chance you get left out in the RPI top 30 no matter who you beat or didn't beat.

No, there is less than a 5% chance you get left out if your are in a power 6 conference and have won a couple games against "name" teams as well as securing a few Top-50 rpi wins.

(01-28-2013 11:10 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:54 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  There is less than a 5% chance you get left out in the RPI top 30 no matter who you beat or didn't beat.

No, there is less than a 5% chance you get left out if your are in a power 6 conference and have won a couple games against "name" teams as well as securing a few Top-50 rpi wins.

No, there is a 0% chance you get left out of you are a team from one of the big 6 conferences and you have a top 30 RPI. And there is close to a 0% chance you get left out with a top 30 RPI if you are a Memphis, Gonzaga, Xavier etc. Non big 6 schools that are "name" schools. Just the facts. Go back and look at the names of the schools that got left out that were top 30 out of the last 10 years. There are about 4 of them.

(01-28-2013 11:20 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:10 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:54 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  There is less than a 5% chance you get left out in the RPI top 30 no matter who you beat or didn't beat.

No, there is less than a 5% chance you get left out if your are in a power 6 conference and have won a couple games against "name" teams as well as securing a few Top-50 rpi wins.

No, there is a 0% chance you get left out of you are a team from one of the big 6 conferences and you have a top 30 RPI. And there is close to a 0% chance you get left out with a top 30 RPI if you are a Memphis, Gonzaga, Xavier etc. Non big 6 schools that are "name" schools. Just the facts. Go back and look at the names of the schools that got left out that were top 30 out of the last 10 years. There are about 4 of them.

#saloogied saluki?

o_0

my brain hurts now.

(01-28-2013 11:20 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:10 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:54 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  There is less than a 5% chance you get left out in the RPI top 30 no matter who you beat or didn't beat.

No, there is less than a 5% chance you get left out if your are in a power 6 conference and have won a couple games against "name" teams as well as securing a few Top-50 rpi wins.

No, there is a 0% chance you get left out of you are a team from one of the big 6 conferences and you have a top 30 RPI. And there is close to a 0% chance you get left out with a top 30 RPI if you are a Memphis, Gonzaga, Xavier etc. Non big 6 schools that are "name" schools. Just the facts. Go back and look at the names of the schools that got left out that were top 30 out of the last 10 years. There are about 4 of them.

Well 0% is "less than 5%" (as I wrote).


Highest RPI Last 15 Years to miss NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

(01-28-2013 11:25 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:20 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:10 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:54 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  There is less than a 5% chance you get left out in the RPI top 30 no matter who you beat or didn't beat.

No, there is less than a 5% chance you get left out if your are in a power 6 conference and have won a couple games against "name" teams as well as securing a few Top-50 rpi wins.

No, there is a 0% chance you get left out of you are a team from one of the big 6 conferences and you have a top 30 RPI. And there is close to a 0% chance you get left out with a top 30 RPI if you are a Memphis, Gonzaga, Xavier etc. Non big 6 schools that are "name" schools. Just the facts. Go back and look at the names of the schools that got left out that were top 30 out of the last 10 years. There are about 4 of them.

Well 0% is "less than 5%" (as I wrote).


Highest RPI Last 15 Years to miss NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

There you go. I suppose there is a chance, but it's highly unlikely, and I would be willing to give anyone 20-1 odds that Memphis will get taken with an RPI up to 33. I win 100 or you get 2000. Or 29 - 33 since that's what we are talking about I guess.

(01-28-2013 10:25 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  Here is our RPI projections acording to rpiforecast.com:

Final Record / Expected RPI
28-3 / 14.6
27-4 / 18.3
26-5 / 23.3
25-6 / 29.4
24-7 / 36.2
23-8 / 43.5
22-9 / 52.0
21-10 / 61.9

Based on these projections, we can lose 3 more games and have an RPI in the top 30. The past few days our OOC opponents have played so bad (as JMS referenced) that the projected RPI for the Tiger's with 3 losses went from 27 to 29. That's actually a big move even at this point in the season. If we can keep it to 3 losses and have an RPI in the top 30, will be almost assured an at-large bid. If we lose 4 more, it's looking like an RPI of about 36. That would probably be giving us close to a 50/50 shot of making the tournament.

A realistic goal that would get us in the Tourney as an at large would be to lose no more than 3 games. (2 regular season, 1 CUSA Tourney) It's going to be very tough, and it starts Wednesday @ ECU.

Final Record/Expected RPI/Probability
28-3 12.7 0.03%
27-4 14.6 0.37%
26-5 18.5 1.88%
25-6 23.2 6.08%
24-7 29.3 11.68%
23-8 36.7 18.96%
22-9 45.0 21.17%
21-10 54.5 17.77%

As you can note, the RPI projections are getting worse for the same record (this one from 1/3/13) so a couple more losses could but Memphis in the 30's, which is no guarantee.

(01-28-2013 11:33 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:25 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  Here is our RPI projections acording to rpiforecast.com:

Final Record / Expected RPI
28-3 / 14.6
27-4 / 18.3
26-5 / 23.3
25-6 / 29.4
24-7 / 36.2
23-8 / 43.5
22-9 / 52.0
21-10 / 61.9

Based on these projections, we can lose 3 more games and have an RPI in the top 30. The past few days our OOC opponents have played so bad (as JMS referenced) that the projected RPI for the Tiger's with 3 losses went from 27 to 29. That's actually a big move even at this point in the season. If we can keep it to 3 losses and have an RPI in the top 30, will be almost assured an at-large bid. If we lose 4 more, it's looking like an RPI of about 36. That would probably be giving us close to a 50/50 shot of making the tournament.

A realistic goal that would get us in the Tourney as an at large would be to lose no more than 3 games. (2 regular season, 1 CUSA Tourney) It's going to be very tough, and it starts Wednesday @ ECU.

Final Record/Expected RPI/Probability
28-3 12.7 0.03%
27-4 14.6 0.37%
26-5 18.5 1.88%
25-6 23.2 6.08%
24-7 29.3 11.68%
23-8 36.7 18.96%
22-9 45.0 21.17%
21-10 54.5 17.77%

As you can note, the RPI projections are getting worse for the same record (this one from 1/3/13) so a couple more losses could but Memphis in the 30's, which is no guarantee.

It could also change for the better. Hopefully it will. This trend of our OOC opponents losing needs to stop though.

So we were 43-45 the 3 years prior to Cal? Wow!!!

(01-28-2013 11:47 AM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  So we were 43-45 the 3 years prior to Cal? Wow!!!

#nuked

I can't help remembering the shaft we got with last year's seeding. If the Eye Test is, indeed, supposed to be a "blindfolded resume comparison in which analysts look at a team's record, conference record, RPI, and strength of schedule", and we do happen to finish 26-5 or better, I'm still concerned with the eyes of the beholder (NCAA Selection Com.). Does Memphis have a perpetual blemish/stigma that affects the NCAA's eyesight?

(01-28-2013 12:02 PM)QuitoTiger Wrote:  I can't help remembering the shaft we got with last year's seeding. If the Eye Test is, indeed, supposed to be a "blindfolded resume comparison in which analysts look at a team's record, conference record, RPI, and strength of schedule", and we do happen to finish 26-5 or better, I'm still concerned with the eyes of the beholder (NCAA Selection Com.). Does Memphis have a perpetual blemish/stigma that affects the NCAA's eyesight?

The "eye test" is actually watching the teams play--not looking at numbers.

You refer (as stated in the description) to the "blind resume."

Eye test is saying "Yeah, New Mexico is 7th in the rpi, but I saw them squeak by an ok UConn team and beat Cinci in a game they probably should have lost, so even though they are in line for a 2 seed, I think they look more like a 7 or 8 seed."

Memphis might be the beneficiary of the eye test if they start running some teams out of the gym. Start with a likely CUSA POY in Joe and add athletic players including to big boys in SG amd TB and Memphis is taylor made to pass the eye test.

(01-28-2013 12:02 PM)QuitoTiger Wrote:  I can't help remembering the shaft we got with last year's seeding. If the Eye Test is, indeed, supposed to be a "blindfolded resume comparison in which analysts look at a team's record, conference record, RPI, and strength of schedule", and we do happen to finish 26-5 or better, I'm still concerned with the eyes of the beholder (NCAA Selection Com.). Does Memphis have a perpetual blemish/stigma that affects the NCAA's eyesight?

The committee rewards a team more for beating top 25 opponents than they penalyze a team for losing to bad teams. Example: You could take two teams with identical records with the identical schedules, and have team A beat the 15th ranked team in the country but lose to the 225th team in the country, and have team B lose to the 15th ranked team in the country but beat the 225th team. They will give team A the higher seed even though they lost to the 225th ranked team in the country. They should view team A and team B as the same but they don't. That's our problem. We have not beaten these highly ranked teams. That’s why last year even though we were the 16th ranked team in the RPI we only got an 8 seed.