(01-29-2013 02:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:33 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:25 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  Here is our RPI projections acording to rpiforecast.com:

Final Record / Expected RPI
28-3 / 14.6
27-4 / 18.3
26-5 / 23.3
25-6 / 29.4
24-7 / 36.2
23-8 / 43.5
22-9 / 52.0
21-10 / 61.9

Based on these projections, we can lose 3 more games and have an RPI in the top 30. The past few days our OOC opponents have played so bad (as JMS referenced) that the projected RPI for the Tiger's with 3 losses went from 27 to 29. That's actually a big move even at this point in the season. If we can keep it to 3 losses and have an RPI in the top 30, will be almost assured an at-large bid. If we lose 4 more, it's looking like an RPI of about 36. That would probably be giving us close to a 50/50 shot of making the tournament.

A realistic goal that would get us in the Tourney as an at large would be to lose no more than 3 games. (2 regular season, 1 CUSA Tourney) It's going to be very tough, and it starts Wednesday @ ECU.

Final Record/Expected RPI/Probability
28-3 12.7 0.03%
27-4 14.6 0.37%
26-5 18.5 1.88%
25-6 23.2 6.08%
24-7 29.3 11.68%
23-8 36.7 18.96%
22-9 45.0 21.17%
21-10 54.5 17.77%

As you can note, the RPI projections are getting worse for the same record (this one from 1/3/13) so a couple more losses could but Memphis in the 30's, which is no guarantee.

St. Mary's had a record of 25-6 with an SOS of 105 and they ended up right on the button at 30. If we win 1 game in the CUSA tournament, that gets us to 27-5 with a comparable SOS. There is no way that gets us into the 30's. Wrong again I'm afraid.

(01-29-2013 04:46 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-29-2013 02:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 11:33 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-28-2013 10:25 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  Here is our RPI projections acording to rpiforecast.com:

Final Record / Expected RPI
28-3 / 14.6
27-4 / 18.3
26-5 / 23.3
25-6 / 29.4
24-7 / 36.2
23-8 / 43.5
22-9 / 52.0
21-10 / 61.9

Based on these projections, we can lose 3 more games and have an RPI in the top 30. The past few days our OOC opponents have played so bad (as JMS referenced) that the projected RPI for the Tiger's with 3 losses went from 27 to 29. That's actually a big move even at this point in the season. If we can keep it to 3 losses and have an RPI in the top 30, will be almost assured an at-large bid. If we lose 4 more, it's looking like an RPI of about 36. That would probably be giving us close to a 50/50 shot of making the tournament.

A realistic goal that would get us in the Tourney as an at large would be to lose no more than 3 games. (2 regular season, 1 CUSA Tourney) It's going to be very tough, and it starts Wednesday @ ECU.

Final Record/Expected RPI/Probability
28-3 12.7 0.03%
27-4 14.6 0.37%
26-5 18.5 1.88%
25-6 23.2 6.08%
24-7 29.3 11.68%
23-8 36.7 18.96%
22-9 45.0 21.17%
21-10 54.5 17.77%

As you can note, the RPI projections are getting worse for the same record (this one from 1/3/13) so a couple more losses could but Memphis in the 30's, which is no guarantee.

St. Mary's had a record of 25-6 with an SOS of 105 and they ended up right on the button at 30. If we win 1 game in the CUSA tournament, that gets us to 27-5 with a comparable SOS. There is no way that gets us into the 30's. Wrong again I'm afraid.

Time will tell.

(01-29-2013 04:36 PM)Stammers Wrote:  Notice how nice my response was? If I was allowed to respond honestly based on the quality of your post, it would have been a lot different. It's the new me. Let's just say that Mensa won't be sending you an application form very soon.