Current RPI projections for the Tigers:
(Current RPI 57)

Final Record / Expected RPI
28-3 / 9.5
27-4 / 11.8
26-5 / 15.5
25-6 / 19.6
24-7 / 25.0
23-8 / 31.6
22-9 / 39.2
21-10 / 47.9
20-11 / 56.7
19-12 / 67.7
18-13 / 80.1
17-14 / 94.4
16-15 / 108.0

SOS projection 51

Historically, you are all but a lock to receive an invite on Selection Sunday of you have an RPI in the top 30. According to the projections, we could lose 4 more games and have an RPI of about 25. This is much better than just a week ago. These are projections, so things can change, but it's certainly looking up for the Tiger's in the RPI department.

Also, SOS is projected to be about 51 at the end of the season. This is also much better than what the school of thought has been up to this point. Most have been putting the Tiger's SOS at about 75 or so.

A reasonable goal would be not to lose more than 2 more games. If that's the case, then we would be looking at an RPI in the mid teens according to the projections. Hopefully that would be good enough to pull us out of that dreaded 8/9 game. Could be something like a 5 or 6 seed.

( data provided by http://www.rpiforecast.com/ )

6 seed would be great -stay away from the 4-5- you meet #1 too quickly
need to make a run to quiet the haters

Just have to do our best to win out. It's starting to look like the loses to Minnesota and Louisville won't be as bad as people first thought.

(01-06-2013 03:10 PM)Docsserious Wrote:  6 seed would be great -stay away from the 4-5- you meet #1 too quickly
need to make a run to quiet the haters

I have always said this. A 6 seed is better than a 4 or 5 imo.

(01-06-2013 03:14 PM)memp600 Wrote:  Just have to do our best to win out. It's starting to look like the loses to Minnesota and Louisville won't be as bad as people first thought.

The losses are not bad at all. I am actually proud of the Louisville game and the other two (Minny / VCU) are to almost certain NCAA teams.

It's just that we have no 'big' wins. Our best win is @UTk. It's a good win, but it's not a resume lead item.

This team can still be very good, and even worthy of a top 4 seed, it's just going to be awfully tough to PROVE this.

(01-06-2013 03:19 PM)Sundanceuiuc Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 03:14 PM)memp600 Wrote:  Just have to do our best to win out. It's starting to look like the loses to Minnesota and Louisville won't be as bad as people first thought.

The losses are not bad at all. I am actually proud of the Louisville game and the other two (Minny / VCU) are to almost certain NCAA teams.

It's just that we have no 'big' wins. Our best win is @UTk. It's a good win, but it's not a resume lead item.

This team can still be very good, and even worthy of a top 4 seed, it's just going to be awfully tough to PROVE this.

Yeah that is the problem. We have GOOD losses. We just dont have much to show we can get good wins and no opportunity for it.

6/7 seed would be fine...no 8/9 this year puleez

I don't see how the RPI SOS gets that high with the terrible weakness of C-USA and three sub-300 teams on the non-conference slate. warrennolan.com has the Tigers RPI SOS projected as being #88 when it is all said and done.

(01-06-2013 04:14 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  I don't see how the RPI SOS gets that high with the terrible weakness of C-USA and three sub-300 teams on the non-conference slate. warrennolan.com has the Tigers RPI SOS projected as being #88 when it is all said and done.

We did play a few teams who hopefully will be the best teams in their leagues.

(01-06-2013 03:19 PM)Sundanceuiuc Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 03:14 PM)memp600 Wrote:  Just have to do our best to win out. It's starting to look like the loses to Minnesota and Louisville won't be as bad as people first thought.

The losses are not bad at all. I am actually proud of the Louisville game and the other two (Minny / VCU) are to almost certain NCAA teams.

It's just that we have no 'big' wins. Our best win is @UTk. It's a good win, but it's not a resume lead item.

This team can still be very good, and even worthy of a top 4 seed, it's just going to be awfully tough to PROVE this.

VCU and Minny are locks barring injuries/suspensions. Watched them multiple times-very good teams. Louisville will probably be on 1 or 2 line; Minny 2-3 seed and VCU 4-5 (they are that good). That is what is helping our SOS. Those 3 teams are projected to win a high % of their remaining games.

Harvard is #80 and Xavier is #107 on KenPom

Some of our league mates clock in at:
Southern Miss - #65
Tulane - #92
Central Florida - #108
UTEP - #127
UAB - #152

Anyways, that is KenPom ... didn't look at RPI ... I think we will have maybe 3 or 4 additional losses before the conference tourny. Hope we win out, but I'll take 1/2 losses, but expectations may be 3/4 losses.

Many of our OOC games included teams picked to finish 1st in their league. Let's hope for their success.

Thanks for the data.

Last I looked at realtime rpi, I think we were 48 after the UTK win. A week or so ago we were something on the order of 105.

But I thought even if we won out we could do no better than a 12 seed according to all the doom and gloomers around here for the last two weeks? Same thing every year and you guys never learn to let the season play out before declaring it over in November.


http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=609...pid8749472

(01-06-2013 07:22 PM)oakland steve Wrote:  But I thought even if we won out we could do no better than a 12 seed according to all the doom and gloomers around here for the last two weeks? Same thing every year and you guys never learn to let the season play out before declaring it over in November.


http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=609...pid8749472

Exactly. Being Memphis folks we always hope for the best but expect the worst. More recently, many seem to give up on the hope part, and just start out expecting the worst. That gets old.

Imho, this is Pastner's best team and I look forward to some fun times as the season plays out.

(01-06-2013 04:14 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  I don't see how the RPI SOS gets that high with the terrible weakness of C-USA and three sub-300 teams on the non-conference slate. warrennolan.com has the Tigers RPI SOS projected as being #88 when it is all said and done.

It makes since to me. Last year with 8 losses we were 16th in the RPI I believe. This year it says we would have an RPI of about 32 with 8 losses. So it's taking into account that our SOS is not as good as last year.

(01-06-2013 08:31 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 04:14 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  I don't see how the RPI SOS gets that high with the terrible weakness of C-USA and three sub-300 teams on the non-conference slate. warrennolan.com has the Tigers RPI SOS projected as being #88 when it is all said and done.

I makes since to me. Last year with 8 losses we were 16th in the RPI I believe. This year it says we would have an RPI of about 32 with 8 losses. So it's taking into account that our SOS is not as good as last year.

I am just saying I will be surprised if our RPI SOS ends up around #50. I think it will be worse than that because of C-USA and some of the dregs on our non-conference schedule.

(01-06-2013 08:51 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 08:31 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 04:14 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  I don't see how the RPI SOS gets that high with the terrible weakness of C-USA and three sub-300 teams on the non-conference slate. warrennolan.com has the Tigers RPI SOS projected as being #88 when it is all said and done.

I makes since to me. Last year with 8 losses we were 16th in the RPI I believe. This year it says we would have an RPI of about 32 with 8 losses. So it's taking into account that our SOS is not as good as last year.

I am just saying I will be surprised if our RPI SOS ends up around #50. I think it will be worse than that because of C-USA and some of the dregs on our non-conference schedule.

Well they are projecting every team through the end of the year, so it's supposed to be pretty close to accurate. We will see I guess.

(01-06-2013 09:03 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 08:51 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 08:31 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-06-2013 04:14 PM)JMSTiger Wrote:  I don't see how the RPI SOS gets that high with the terrible weakness of C-USA and three sub-300 teams on the non-conference slate. warrennolan.com has the Tigers RPI SOS projected as being #88 when it is all said and done.

I makes since to me. Last year with 8 losses we were 16th in the RPI I believe. This year it says we would have an RPI of about 32 with 8 losses. So it's taking into account that our SOS is not as good as last year.

I am just saying I will be surprised if our RPI SOS ends up around #50. I think it will be worse than that because of C-USA and some of the dregs on our non-conference schedule.

Well they are projecting every team through the end of the year, so it's supposed to be pretty close to accurate. We will see I guess.

I hope they are right.

I wonder if pdlglum will chime in to tell us how Memphis is a "fringe" top 100 RPI team.