Miami lost to UMass by one point (Oddly enough, both teams lost to UMass in their last game), beat an improving UIC, and has played a rather tough non-conference schedule. I'll bet their fans are looking forward to MAC play as much as NIU fans are.
As a team, Miami ranks 37th nationally in steals (9.2), 51st in turnover margin (2.9) and 56th in 3-point field goals (7.6). This is not a good matchup for NIU, they won't be able to sit in their zone D and NIU has had big turnover problems. I'm guessing NIU plays man to man and probably fouls a bit more than they'd like to. Hope I'm wrong.
To be fair, and this will shock you, NIU forces one more turnover a game than they commit. Can you believe it? NIU is POSITIVE in the turnover +/- ratio! (+1)! So I think the turnover battle (fouls too) will tell the story in this one (what a shocker!).
Miami guard Quinten Rollins ranks 14th nationally in assist/turnover ratio, so NIU will have to guard the hell out of him.
And don't foul Allen Roberts; he shoots 87% from the line.
Abdel Nader is averaging 15.0 ppg and 27.3 points per 40 minutes played, the same number as UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad and Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk. That's impressive. As Nader goes, NIU goes, pretty much.
Akeem Springs has really improved since Nader returned and he started coming off the bench, he's averaging around ten points and shooting 45%. Darrell Bowie has a good game against UMass in his first start, so hopefully there's more of that. Daveon Balls has 10 assists and only four turnovers in the last five. Despite playing freshmen at the point, NIU has gotten better production from that position, that has to continue.
NIU also has to find a way to get the free throw situation closer to even. Teams have made more free throws against NIU than NIU has attempted. Hopefully in MAC play, NIU won't have to foul as much, but they can do more to force the issue on offense and get to the line themselves.
NIU is 1-19 at Millett Hall (that win was in 1983). Let's make it 2-19! Go Huskies!
I think you'll have to watch in on Miami's feed if you want to see this one, and you'll have to pay. But maybe Huskie All-access works on Miami's all-access? I dunno. (
Miami link)
I expect a tight game, but Miami is a little better and at home.
Redhawks 64, NIU 59.
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Opening Night Jan 9 Predictions - Huskies @ Redhawks
