(12-22-2012 08:47 AM)Mr. Peanut Wrote: Averting the fiscal cliff should be the beginning of the process. We must address spending long term but for the short term more stimulus is in order.
"Stimulus" isn't working. We are borrowing 10% of GDP and dumping it into the economy annually, and getting back 2% growth. If "stimulus" were working we'd be getting white-hot growth long before now. We can't keep it up, or we'll run out of somebody else's money. We can't stop, or even that meager growth will go into the tank. We are on an inescapable path to meltdown unless we make fundamental change.
We are getting Keynesian multipliers in the range of 1.25 to 1.5. That sucks. We should be getting 5.0, maybe 3.0 minimum, to do any good. But to get the multipliers up to that range we have to be making what we consume here, instead of making it overseas and just doing retail and service here. Keynes acknowledged that if you neglected supply long enough, then eventually demand stimulus would lose its kick. We've been doing incessant demand stimulus for 40 years. We are the largest importer in the world, because demand has grown more than supply, and we are the largest debtor in the world, because demand has grown faster than our ability to pay for it.
If we could get larger multipliers, then we could stimulate more growth with less spending. But that takes doing something for the supply side. And that means real supply-side help, not the "trickle down" that republicans try to foist off as supply-side. Ross Perot had some good ideas in this regard, but he was wrong about NAFTA.
As I see it, we have to do three things:
1) Balance the budget
2) Make the US a more competitive place to do business, so investment will come here instead of moving offshore, thereby raising the multiplier
3) Provide a comprehensive safety net that functions to put a floor on how far people can fall instead of a ceiling on how far they can climb
It can be done, but not by republicans or democrats.