Figured I'd wait for the craziness to die down (and the Army-Navy game) before I posted my pre-bowl top 25 and MAC rankings.

Top 25:

Alabama
Oregon
Florida State
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Fresno State
Oklahoma
Georgia
Utah State
Florida
Brigham Young
Wisconsin
Texas Tech
Clemson
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
LSU
Northern Illinois
Michigan State
Ohio State
San Jose State
Michigan
Oregon State
South Carolina
Boise State


MAC:

18 Northern Illinois
42 Bowling Green
54 Ball State
59 Ohio
62 Kent State
64 Toledo
70 Western Michigan
77 Buffalo
97 Central Michigan
101 Akron
103 Miami (OH)
119 Eastern Michigan
124 Massachusetts

Wow, Wisconsin, Fresno St, BYU, and Mich St ranked that high??

I could see one ranking Notre Dame #5 but not any lower. But you certainly have some very uncommon picks up there!

Small update on how my model is doing as far as predicting bowls, after 19 games my model is 13-6, and using confidence scoring (35 for most confident pick, 1 for least confident), I have 253 points, and have missed 97. The best BCS model has been Billingsley, who has scored 213 points and missed 105. The worst BCS model has been the Colley Matrix, which has scored 136 points and missed 190.

Games where every model missed:

SMU over Fresno
Ohio over UL-Monroe
Texas over Oregon State
CMU over W. Kentucky

Games where only 1 model got it right:

Baylor over UCLA (Massey got it right)
Virginia Tech over Rutgers (my model got it right)
Michigan St. over TCU (my model got it right)
UCF over Ball St. (my model got it right)
Syracuse over W. Virginia (my model got it right)

Games where 6 models got it right:

Arizona St. over Navy (Colley got it wrong)

Games that every model got right:

UL-Lafayette over ECU
Cincinnati over Duke
Texas Tech over Minnesota
Arizona over Nevada
San Jose St. over BGSU
USU over Toledo

No disrespect intended to Fresno State, but to have them higher than Georgia, I would say some tweaks are needed for the offseason.

(12-30-2012 03:39 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  No disrespect intended to Fresno State, but to have them higher than Georgia, I would say some tweaks are needed for the offseason.

And your favorite DeSimone rankings have scored an impressive 246 points...but they've already missed 171. Ouch. Only 10 games right to my 13 too. But hey, you know, whatever works for you.

(12-30-2012 11:04 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(12-30-2012 03:39 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  No disrespect intended to Fresno State, but to have them higher than Georgia, I would say some tweaks are needed for the offseason.

And your favorite DeSimone rankings have scored an impressive 246 points...but they've already missed 171. Ouch. Only 10 games right to my 13 too. But hey, you know, whatever works for you.

It is good your model is working out good for the post season, the only problem is that your model seems suscpetible to a few pretty wild outliers. That is only why I suggested perhaps a tweak, like seeing what component caused Fresno to be so high and just making the little adjustment with that. I did not mean it personally.

Where is Stanford?

Florida State #3?

Alright...final standings for my model vs. the BCS models vs. MD's favorite rankings:

niusfactuary: 24-11 straight up
Massey: 22-13
DeSimone: 19-16
Wolfe: 18-17
Billingsley: 17-18
Anderson/Hester, Colley, Sagarin: 16-19

Using confidence points for the games, standings were:

niusfactuary: 475 (out of possible 630)
Massey: 398
Billingsley: 380
DeSimone: 373
Sagarin: 339
Wolfe: 329
Colley: 317
Anderson/Hester: 314

And finally, for the bowl games, my model was 22-12 against the spread.

(01-08-2013 10:57 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  Alright...final standings for my model vs. the BCS models vs. MD's favorite rankings:

niusfactuary: 24-11 straight up
Massey: 22-13
DeSimone: 19-16
Wolfe: 18-17
Billingsley: 17-18
Anderson/Hester, Colley, Sagarin: 16-19

Using confidence points for the games, standings were:

niusfactuary: 475 (out of possible 630)
Massey: 398
Billingsley: 380
DeSimone: 373
Sagarin: 339
Wolfe: 329
Colley: 317
Anderson/Hester: 314

And finally, for the bowl games, my model was 22-12 against the spread.

Impressive

(01-08-2013 11:02 PM)NIUSox10 Wrote:  

(01-08-2013 10:57 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  Alright...final standings for my model vs. the BCS models vs. MD's favorite rankings:

niusfactuary: 24-11 straight up
Massey: 22-13
DeSimone: 19-16
Wolfe: 18-17
Billingsley: 17-18
Anderson/Hester, Colley, Sagarin: 16-19

Using confidence points for the games, standings were:

niusfactuary: 475 (out of possible 630)
Massey: 398
Billingsley: 380
DeSimone: 373
Sagarin: 339
Wolfe: 329
Colley: 317
Anderson/Hester: 314

And finally, for the bowl games, my model was 22-12 against the spread.

Impressive

I gotta say I'm pretty happy with it. I made some tweaks from my original project I did back when I was a senior at NIU, and was happy to see that they improved upon what I had previously. Cue MD complaining about my crazy outliers. Are there some crazy outliers? Absolutely, but no model is going to get everything right. Also props to Massey...his rankings seem to be pretty good compared to most of the other BCS rankings.

Alright, the real question: Do you do rotisserie baseball projections and cheat sheets? It's time for me to switch over to my other obsession and this BCS stuff has me behind my league mates.

(01-09-2013 08:59 AM)cawoo22 Wrote:  Alright, the real question: Do you do rotisserie baseball projections and cheat sheets? It's time for me to switch over to my other obsession and this BCS stuff has me behind my league mates.

Haha, no, I've never gotten into fantasy projections. For fantasy baseball I've gotten my projections off of Bloomberg sports the last 2 years and have finished first and second respectively. Don't know if I'm going to play this year...it's such a grind.

(01-08-2013 10:57 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  Alright...final standings for my model vs. the BCS models vs. MD's favorite rankings:

niusfactuary: 24-11 straight up
Massey: 22-13
DeSimone: 19-16
Wolfe: 18-17
Billingsley: 17-18
Anderson/Hester, Colley, Sagarin: 16-19

Using confidence points for the games, standings were:

niusfactuary: 475 (out of possible 630)
Massey: 398
Billingsley: 380
DeSimone: 373
Sagarin: 339
Wolfe: 329
Colley: 317
Anderson/Hester: 314

And finally, for the bowl games, my model was 22-12 against the spread.

You keep this shite up, and someone is going to make a movie of you and your success in Vegas.