(11-26-2012 09:45 AM)BrianPersky Wrote:  Can we have a reminder of which bowls get first pick, etc.?

I would be surprised if Ohio was left home regardless of the circumstances with 8 wins. I think Ohio is more attractive to bowl reps. than Ball State and/or Bowling Green.

Ohio has a 4-4 conference record. BGSU and Ball St own head to head wins against Ohio and sport 6-2 conference records.

Yeah, Ohio probably has a little better fan support. However, unless they are playing in the LCPB, fan support won't be enough to tilt the favor towards any MAC team.


No, I am not going over what bowls get to pick first and where teams end up. That's what "bowl projections" are for.

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=601866

and

running list of bowl invitations.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...-bowl-bids

(11-26-2012 09:40 AM)EA3 Wrote:  If CMU is go bowling, they need the following to happen:

UCONN loss at home vs Cincy (8-3, 4-2)

Pitt loss @ South Florida (3-8, 1-5)

Georgia Tech loss vs Florida St (10-2, 7-1) in the ACC c-ship game AND the NCAA needs to deny their petition to play in a bowl game.


*Considering the NCAA approved UCLA's petition last year, and G Tech's situation is very very similar, I would think they will be bowling.

*If UCONN or Pitt win...or both, there is a strong possibility that Ohio might be staying home as well. A bowl that needs to fill an open slot might choose a Sun Belt team over Ohio due to proximity and potential ticket sales. Heck, if both UCONN and Pitt win, I would say Ohio gets left home for sure.

Like I said, if I read that website correctly, the NCAA did away with the petition thing or whatever you call it. GT has to win, BCS or bust.

(11-26-2012 09:45 AM)BrianPersky Wrote:  Can we have a reminder of which bowls get first pick, etc.?

LCPB has first choice this year. Unless a MAC team makes a BCS bowl, they would take the MAC Champion in all likelyhood. Basically, NIU to Detroit as (a) I don't see them jumping Texas, UCLA, Michigan, AND Boise State all in one week, or (b) Kent State wins, jumps UCLA or anyone else, gets to #16, and goes to the Orange Bowl and NIU is the next best team.

After that, I'm a little hazy on the actual order, but I believe it is GoDaddy Bowl followed by Potato Bowl (vs Utah St). Each bowl gets to pick who they want. Ball State is a very hot commodity, but according to Kelly Page's twitter, BSU already knows where they're going. Keep in mind, Ball State has 2 BCS wins, is 9-3, and only have lost to Clemson, NIU, and Kent State (combined 32-4). They have a lot more push than you'd think. Add in the fact they have a high powered offense, and you have yourselves a bowl team.

After Ball State, you have to believe that the order of teams would go something like this: Toledo, BGSU, Ohio, CMU. I think Ohio would get in over a 7-5 Western Kentucky team, injuries aside. Both teams have wins over BCS teams, but Ohio has the better win (Penn State by 3 vs Kentucky in OT). Both have limped into bowl season with 2-4 records over their last 6 games.

Let me get this straight, so in summary:

70 slots for bowls + bcs national championship
71 teams are currently bowl eligible (assuming GT gets waiver)
2 more teams can become bowl eligible this weekend?

Looks like CMU is on the couch next to us, watching this year's bowl season

(11-26-2012 01:19 PM)broncos24 Wrote:  Let me get this straight, so in summary:

70 slots for bowls + bcs national championship
71 teams are currently bowl eligible (assuming GT gets waiver)
2 more teams can become bowl eligible this weekend?

Looks like CMU is on the couch next to us, watching this year's bowl season

70 slots total. not +2 for BCS c-ship.

Just read on the CMU board that the NCAA did away with the waiver exception that got UCLA into a bowl game last year. I'm not sure if that is true. I need to do a little google search before I accept that as fact.

However, if it is true, that is a HUGE hurdle. Still might be tough though considering who and where UCONN and Pitt play.

(11-26-2012 01:22 PM)EA3 Wrote:  

(11-26-2012 01:19 PM)broncos24 Wrote:  Let me get this straight, so in summary:

70 slots for bowls and bcs national championship
71 teams are currently bowl eligible (assuming GT gets waiver)
2 more teams can become bowl eligible this weekend?

Looks like CMU is on the couch next to us, watching this year's bowl season

70 slots total. not +2 for BCS c-ship.

Just read on the CMU board that the NCAA did away with the waiver exception that got UCLA into a bowl game last year. I'm not sure if that is true. I need to do a little google search before I accept that as fact.

However, if it is true, that is a HUGE hurdle. Still might be tough though considering who and where UCONN and Pitt play.

Oops. Meant to say 70 slots for bowl and bcs not +


EDIT: guess there was a change in the rule. It states all 6-6 teams must be selected BEFORE a 6-7 conference championship loser can be selected.

I mean, I got that list from the NCAA.org website. I'm not sure if that means anything at all.............

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/publ...+shortfall There is a space between the last "+" and "shortfall". Delete that and you get the website

The waiver should be gone unless the NCAA is full of lying bastards. GT fans may not accept it, but it's the truth. This is why we have this new protocol.

Again, so in summary:

70 slots available
70 teams currently bowl eligible
3 teams could become, in a round about way, eligible this weekend (Georgia Tech, Pitt and UConn)

(11-26-2012 01:34 PM)broncos24 Wrote:  Again, so in summary:

70 slots available
70 teams currently bowl eligible
3 teams could become, in a round about way, eligible this weekend (Georgia Tech, Pitt and UConn)

Yes, (kinda) some teams have already accepted bowl bids
Yes
Yes, with GT playing for the BCS bid or nothing at all

http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-tech-sports...narios-ii/

Interesting take on Georgia Tech and a bowl bid, assuming they lose to Florida St.

I wouldn't rule them out until they are officially sitting at home.

I read that, but I think it is wishful thinking. Otherwise, why else did they put this new system in place? So the C-USA and MAC team that finished 6-7 could get in 3rd while BCS teams can continue to play the "woe is us" card? Doubtful. We shall see though. UCLA submitted their waiver request before the PAC-12 Title Game last season so GT would have to get going on that.

Does anyone else realize that if North Carolina, Miami, Ohio St, and Penn St were bowl eligible...the MAC would be getting hosed on bids.

2-4 MAC teams would likely be staying home.

Talk about a let down. Thank goodness those teams aren't eligible.

the worst part of that might not even be that, but the fact that Kent St might not have the opportunity they might get if they win friday

I did a breakdown in another thread about the chances of CMU going if they beat UMass (which had a high assumption). The way I saw it, the win/loss odds were in favor of CMU going, but that doesn't mean much. With upsets happening, now UConn or Pitt winning out would obviously bump them away.

I never thought about the GTech scenario. If they somehow let them in, it's done for CMU. What gets me is that GTech either goes to a BCS bowl game (winning ACC), or doesn't go to a bowl (but could possibly petition?).

As far as Kent State's concerned -- I don't think us MAC fans can get too po'd if Kent doesn't end up going, if they beat NIU (by NIU botching it with turnovers). NIU's favored to win for a reason... I think Kent's overrated, being at #17 and NIU at #21 in the BCS. IMO, it would be the other way around. Then I would be disappointed for NIU not making it if they beat Kent.

#17 Kent State, to get to #16 would need:
(1) #16 UCLA to lose to Stanford
OR POSSIBLY #13 Florida State to lose to .500 G-Tech
OR POSSIBLY #12 Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin (probably won't drop Nebraska down below 16)
OR #15 Oregon State to lose to 1-9 D1-AA team Nicholls St (this is NOT going to happen)
*AND*
(2) #18 Texas to lose to Kansas State (so they don't jump over Kent; beating Kansas State is bigger than beating NIU)
ASSUMING Both UCLA *and* FSU don't both lose; If so, both Texas AND Kent State would jump up into Top 16.

If #21 NIU beats Kent State Handily, NIU could THEORETICALLY make it to #16, the BCS bowl:
- UCLA and Texas to lose BIG, *AND* FSU would also have to lose.

That would stop #18 Texas from getting to #16 (and losing big, fall below a previously lower ranked Top-25 team beating a ranked team).
That would stop #17 Kent from getting to #16, obviously (moves everyone ranked lower, up 1 spot).
That would drop #16 UCLA down below #16 (and losing big, fall below a previously lower ranked Top-25 team beating a ranked team)
That would drop #13 Florida State lower than #16, losing to a 6-6 G-Tech team

#20 Boise beating Nevada wouldn't be as big as #21 NIU beating #17 Kent, so Boise's results should be irrelevant.

So if UCLA & Texas lose BIG, and FSU gets smacked by a .500 team, there's a good chance it could end up something like this:
#13 Clemson
#14 Oregon State
#15 Northern Illinois (W, was #21)
#16 Boise State (W, was #20)
#17 Michigan (Bye, was #19)
#18 Florida State (L, was #13)
#19 UCLA (L, was #16)
#20 Texas (L, was #18)
#21 Northwestern (Bye, was #22)

FSU would drop like a rock (2 losses in a row, capping it off with a .500 team)
UCLA losing two in a 2 row -- would push them down good if losing big
Texas losing big would bump them down a couple spots

But BOISE MAY HAVE TO LOSE. There could be 2 Mid-Majors jumping to Top-16, if FSU, Texas, & UCLA all have big losses! And Boise would be picked, not NIU (or Kent, if Kent beat NIU)

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.
http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_explained.html

so the big east champion will finish below either team so they just need to get to 16

Anyone else think that if Kent State wins, they jump Oregon State just because of the difference in opponents? I understand they almost have a full .1300 advantage, but still. Beating a Top 25 team vs some meaningless win over an FCS opponent?

#15 Oregon State wouldn't fall, really. There's a big gap right now between #16 UCLA (.3304) and #17 Kent State (.2512), with Oregon State solidly above #16 UCLA.

Oregon State won't fall unless they have a barn-burner of a game they barely pull out.

UCLA losing again, to the same team, will drop them down solidly this time. And those behind Kent State are closely rated behind each other!

For NIU at #21, if #16, #17, and #18 lose, and with #19 with a bye, and #20 winning an unranked opponent, NIU COULD jump to #16.

NIU is RIGHT behind #20, and #20 is RIGHT behind #19 -- and #19 (UofM) has a bye. NIU is ranked higher in votes than #19 UofM, lower than #20 Boise -- but has a better computer ranking than Boise. NIU's computer ranking will go up -- as will its vote placement at least a slight bit, so it will surely go over UM. Boise's unranked win won't be enough on the computer rankings -- I believe NIU will go over them, too.

So if #16 UCLA falls, and obviously #17 Kent, and #18 Texas -- NIU *could* get up there. It'd be more probability of Florida State loses to 6-6 GTech. But that extra spot could make Boise hit #16 -- and they would be selected as the mid-major bid if that happened.

It looks like CMU may not go now...

http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-tech-sports...ty-waiver/

It seems to me that only ACC and GT fans, officials, and players/coaches seem to believe that Georgia Tech will be granted the waiver. I'll believe it when I see it, but will be extremely p****d if it is granted