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The politics of RvW
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Machiavelli Offline
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The politics of RvW
For the majority of my life I resented the advantage the GOP had with the values voter wing of their party. The worm has turned on this RvW argument. Now the D's want to keep it in the mainstream and out there. THIS WASN'T ALWAYS THE CASE. The variables and vectors have changed. 54% of the electorate is women. How many times have you talked to people who say they are one issue voters? I have had this happen to me many times over. Many women are obviously becoming one issue voters too. The GOP loved it when the political calculus favored them. It's coming back to bite them now and in a big way. I suspect it only gets worse for them from here and what is worse in my opinion. They enjoyed mining that fruitful base since 1980. They take them for granted. They lose that base if they go away from it. They have to stay with it in my opinion. A lot of one issue voters in the evangelical wing of the party too.


Thoughts???
11-10-2012 01:37 PM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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The politics of RvW
Mach what do you believe the breakdown of the electorate is on abortion?

Does the majority call themselves pro-life or pro-choice?

What do. You think the difference is between women who are married and those that are single?

Your point seems to be that abortion is a winning argument for Dems. Just curious as to why.
11-10-2012 03:55 PM
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Machiavelli Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
Does anybody have the numbers on this?
11-10-2012 06:36 PM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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The politics of RvW
Yes.

Gallup also found that 1 in 6 voters say abortion is an issue they vote on. Of those 21% of pro-life voters say its an exclusionary factor. For pro-choice it's 15. Additionally, by 49% to 43%, pro-life voters are a bit more likely than pro-choice voters to say they will consider a candidate's position on abortion as one of many important factors in arriving at their vote choice.

To be fair the numbers of people who describe themselves as pro life vs pro choice varies depending on the poll. But it's a far more important voting issue to pro life voters than pro choice.

Married women are majority pro life, single pro choice.

In short at best it's a wash. What's amazing is 51% to 38% Americans say abortion is morally wrong.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2012 07:13 PM by Ninerfan1.)
11-10-2012 06:57 PM
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chargeradio Offline
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The politics of RvW
I think that last point is the most important one, as that hasn't always been the case. If that number starts approaching 67% abortion's days are numbered.
11-10-2012 07:52 PM
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Machiavelli Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
I think at this point we have to question Gallup and Rasmussen's models. I don't think they are purposely wrong but I don't think they are polling this new electorate. They both tied for 24th in accuracy in the last election. Now I question if this new electorate has staying power. Is this the new electorate going forward or just in presidential years? Can they repeat Obama's ground game?I asked two Saturday's ago if anyone on the right had a similar experience as I did with the lady with the excel sheet. I asked it on another board too. Two pollsters who were involved with the Romney campaign mentioned a Project Orca. It was supposed to update in real time what Red voters voted and who they had to get in the polls still. I guess it crashed mid Tuesday. That is our future. It's going to be less commercials on TV and radio and more GOTV effort. This new electorate that Obama tapped into, pro-choice issues mattered.

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK
11-11-2012 07:42 AM
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Bull_In_Exile Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
(11-10-2012 01:37 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  For the majority of my life I resented the advantage the GOP had with the values voter wing of their party. The worm has turned on this RvW argument. Now the D's want to keep it in the mainstream and out there. THIS WASN'T ALWAYS THE CASE. The variables and vectors have changed. 54% of the electorate is women. How many times have you talked to people who say they are one issue voters? I have had this happen to me many times over. Many women are obviously becoming one issue voters too. The GOP loved it when the political calculus favored them. It's coming back to bite them now and in a big way. I suspect it only gets worse for them from here and what is worse in my opinion. They enjoyed mining that fruitful base since 1980. They take them for granted. They lose that base if they go away from it. They have to stay with it in my opinion. A lot of one issue voters in the evangelical wing of the party too.


Thoughts???

[Image: 28.jpg]

This is wrong, and I don't care what the political calculus says about it..
11-11-2012 11:18 AM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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The politics of RvW
Mach,

Polls that ask your opinion on abortion are not the same ad those that poll for President. They are very different. Trying to compare them is like apples to hammers.
11-11-2012 11:40 AM
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Machiavelli Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
Well to me it's obvious they are not tapping or polling a segment of the electorate. I don't know how you question people without landlines. Something is wrong with their model obviously. Now I would question if this 2012 electorate will be there in 2014 or even 2016. It seems to me going forward that off presidential years will favor R's and presidential years will favor D's.
11-11-2012 12:09 PM
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mixduptransistor Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
(11-10-2012 07:52 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think that last point is the most important one, as that hasn't always been the case. If that number starts approaching 67% abortion's days are numbered.

Actually not necessarily. My mother is anti-abortion, but feels that the government has no business in the decision.
11-11-2012 01:17 PM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
(11-11-2012 01:17 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  
(11-10-2012 07:52 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think that last point is the most important one, as that hasn't always been the case. If that number starts approaching 67% abortion's days are numbered.

Actually not necessarily. My mother is anti-abortion, but feels that the government has no business in the decision.

Why is she anti-abortion?
11-11-2012 01:28 PM
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mixduptransistor Offline
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RE: The politics of RvW
(11-11-2012 01:28 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  
(11-11-2012 01:17 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  
(11-10-2012 07:52 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think that last point is the most important one, as that hasn't always been the case. If that number starts approaching 67% abortion's days are numbered.

Actually not necessarily. My mother is anti-abortion, but feels that the government has no business in the decision.

Why is she anti-abortion?

You'd have to ask her. FWIW she wasn't an Obama voter, but abortion doesn't factor into her decision making
11-11-2012 01:29 PM
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