(11-09-2012 12:59 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Having gone off my gut feeling for this election I can tell you it can be a dicey proposition.

The difference here being, we're four years out and whether or not she wins GA or AR is pretty inconsequential to her winning the whole election. More down to Earth, I don't see her having any problems carrying states that Obama did (based on the situation as it stands today, four years is a long time)

(11-09-2012 12:58 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I'm sure the people over at ALEC can come up with something stupid and unnecessary to enrage the Unions there.

What part of NC being a right to work state isn't registering with you? Only 2.9% of our entire population is unionized. The idea of "anti-union" laws is pretty stupid considering we basically have none.

Quote:And the religious right there is as bad as in Alabama.

Thus the complete lunacy of your idea that "religious right laws" would somehow tip the state in the dems direction.

Quote:But understand, there's a funny thing about gerrymandered majorities in the state leg and US Congress...They don't translate very well into those type of majorities for Senatorial and Presidential races. The GOP has had to learn that in Wisconsin. The might have to learn it in North Carolina.

Good luck with that.

(11-09-2012 01:03 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  The difference here being, we're four years out and whether or not she wins GA or AR is pretty inconsequential to her winning the whole election. More down to Earth, I don't see her having any problems carrying states that Obama did (based on the situation as it stands today, four years is a long time)

I agree it's inconsequential, but that wasn't what your point was. You said she could get those states and I'm saying that it's highly unlikely.

She could carry the states Obama did. The question is does she get the nomination, not a certainty by any stretch, and who does she run against if she does.

(11-09-2012 12:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  North Carolina is obvious as the Dems barely lost it last time. We expect the new NC supermajorities and governor to go full bore on anti-Union and religious right laws.

Obama actually did pretty good in Georgia without putting any resources into the race. He lost by 8 points. Georgia has a very fast growing Hispanic population.

Georgia could be the next Virginia, a peelable part of the South that will be in play due to changing demographics (less good ol' boy White).
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/result...es/georgia

(11-09-2012 12:53 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-09-2012 12:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  We expect the new NC supermajorities and governor to go full bore on anti-Union and religious right laws.

Boy do you have zero understanding of NC.

First, we don't need anti-union laws being a right to work state.

Second this state approved by over 60% an amendment banning gay marriage. Not sure what other "religious right" laws you might be thinking of but that's not really a losing issue in NC.

Quote:Obama actually did pretty good in Georgia without putting any resources into the race. He lost by 8 points. Georgia has a very fast growing Hispanic population.

Arkansas is out of reach.

You will never get GA with Hillary. You could make a run for it if you nominated a moderate to right leaning dem southern governor, but I don't think a candidate like that will ever win the Dem nomination again.

Mandatory Creationism taught in public schools.

(11-09-2012 07:04 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Indiana and North Carolina were the only two states to change from 2008 to 2012 I believe? In general, there was about a 3 to 4 pct swing in most states in the Obama support from 2008 to 2012. That's not universal but the general trend in each state. And overall the voter turnout was down a bit from 2008 but I think the percentage still is decent compared to most elections from the past 30-40 years.

I still believe the most important stat from this election is one that most people continue to choose to ignore. 53 pct of the voters were women. That's obviously a much different stat from the numbers on this board. Minorities aren't deciding national elections - women are. At least that's what I believe.

One counter to that last opnion: Romney may have actually performed worse amongst Latino voters than he was expected to:

Quote:Mitt Romney lost Latinos by unprecedented margins — even worse than the initial exit polls showed — according to a study by Latino Decisions.

An election eve poll of 5,600 voters across all 50 states by the group, which has researched the Latino vote throughout the campaign, concluded Obama won by an eye-popping 75-23 margin. Their research concluded that CNN’s exit poll estimate of 71 percent of Latinos breaking to Obama likely undercounted their support, although they agreed with the assessment that turnout equaled 10 percent of the electorate.

“For the first time in US history, the Latino vote can plausibly claim to be nationally decisive,” Stanford University university professor Gary Segura, who conducted the study, told reporters.

According to Segura, the Latino vote provided Obama with 5.4 percent of his margin over Romney, well more than his overall lead in the popular vote. Had Romney managed even 35 percent of the Latino vote, he said, the results may have flipped nationally.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/1...hp?ref=fpa

(11-09-2012 01:39 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(11-09-2012 12:53 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-09-2012 12:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  We expect the new NC supermajorities and governor to go full bore on anti-Union and religious right laws.

Boy do you have zero understanding of NC.

First, we don't need anti-union laws being a right to work state.

Second this state approved by over 60% an amendment banning gay marriage. Not sure what other "religious right" laws you might be thinking of but that's not really a losing issue in NC.

Quote:Obama actually did pretty good in Georgia without putting any resources into the race. He lost by 8 points. Georgia has a very fast growing Hispanic population.

Arkansas is out of reach.

You will never get GA with Hillary. You could make a run for it if you nominated a moderate to right leaning dem southern governor, but I don't think a candidate like that will ever win the Dem nomination again.

Mandatory Creationism taught in public schools.

That would probably be on the agenda for the new NC government. Plus restrictions on abortion, refusing funding for healthcare because some phony charities operating out of taxpayer built/subsidized hosptials don't like the strings attached to such funding, and of course, the always vital ban on Islamic sharia laws.