When it hits 80%, it will be officially over.

Intrade Odds 70% today... so sorry for you...

saw that too. Obama has lost 8% the last three days. Not a good trend.

(10-03-2012 03:18 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  saw that too. Obama has lost 8% the last three days. Not a good trend.

Barring something major you'll continue to see it drop.

Intrade simply reacts to the news at the time, mainly what the pundits are saying. It's fun to talk about but at the end of the day I'm not sure how great a predictor it really is once you get outside conventional wisdom. Mainly the lack of liquidity in it makes it suspect.

I'm sure it will drop in the next few days because challengers historically do get a bump. It'll be a great second chance to buy if you didn't listen to me when it was around 60%.

Has dropped to 65% during this debate.

What does this mean?

(10-03-2012 09:25 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  What does this mean?

Based on trades on Intrade Obama was at 70% chance of getting reelected. It dropped 5% during the course of the debate. Meaning people were selling Obama or buying Romney.

(10-03-2012 09:31 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(10-03-2012 09:25 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  What does this mean?

Based on trades on Intrade Obama was at 70% chance of getting reelected. It dropped 5% during the course of the debate. Meaning people were selling Obama or buying Romney.

Holy Crap...I can't afford to buy either one of these guys.

It's at 65% now, but I'd wait to buy until next week when the polls confirm a Roms bounce. It will get down around 55%, then you buy. Romney still has too much ground to make up in Ohio and without that he needs a swing state sweep, highly unlikely.

(10-03-2012 11:36 PM)Max Power Wrote:  It's at 65% now, but I'd wait to buy until next week when the polls confirm a Roms bounce. It will get down around 55%, then you buy. Romney still has too much ground to make up in Ohio and without that he needs a swing state sweep, highly unlikely.

I've been listening to Ohio radio. Romney's ads are terrible. Haven't heard any Obama ads (that I remember).

(10-03-2012 11:36 PM)Max Power Wrote:  It's at 65% now, but I'd wait to buy until next week when the polls confirm a Roms bounce. It will get down around 55%, then you buy. Romney still has too much ground to make up in Ohio and without that he needs a swing state sweep, highly unlikely.

I know. Ohio is the key and Romeny is way behind there...

(10-04-2012 07:34 AM)No Bull Wrote:  

(10-03-2012 11:36 PM)Max Power Wrote:  It's at 65% now, but I'd wait to buy until next week when the polls confirm a Roms bounce. It will get down around 55%, then you buy. Romney still has too much ground to make up in Ohio and without that he needs a swing state sweep, highly unlikely.

I know. Ohio is the key and Romeny is way behind there...

I actually don't believe that to be true. He's behind, but not way behind.

Obama back up to 70%. If that Reuters poll holds true then Romney didn't get the bounce I expected and the optimal time to buy Obama has passed (though it's still not a bad time).

(10-05-2012 10:16 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Obama back up to 70%. If that Reuters poll holds true then Romney didn't get the bounce I expected and the optimal time to buy Obama has passed (though it's still not a bad time).

Hold on real tight to your delusions...

Ohio is now a toss up according to Real Clear Politics