States where Obama wins and (Write In + Gary Johnson) exceeds Obama's margin of victory, and confidence that this will happen:

Confidence | State
==============
Definite | North Carolina <-- If Obama manages to win this state
High | Colorado
High | New Hampshire
Moderate | Florida
Moderate | Nevada
Moderate | Iowa
Moderate | New Mexico
Low | Virginia
Low | Ohio

Electoral Votes:
Definite: 15 .... High: 13 .... Moderate: 49 .... Low: 31

It's your grave Mittens and the RNC. You dug it. Now sleep in it.

Obama will not win NC.

So you are predicting Obama winning by less than 1% in every battleground state? Interesting....

Except according to this, Johnson's support is almost equally divided between those who would vote for Obama and those who would vote for Romney. Just like in 1992 third-party candidates draw supporters away from both major parties.

http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/26/gary-j...cen-of-the

(09-27-2012 07:38 PM)blah Wrote:  So you are predicting Obama winning by less than 1% in every battleground state? Interesting....

GTS - do you mean All 3rd party's and write ins? If so woul dbe more than just 1% margin.

You have Virgil Goode in VA and he may cary votes in NC since he is from a border area with NC.

Virgil Goode will get fewer votes than Johnson but will do more to help Obama. 1. I think Johnson will attract some liberals on drug policy, the overseas wars and civil liberties while Goode won't and 2. Goode was a congressman from the very important swing state of Virginia whereas Johnson's state seems safely in the Obama column.

http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/28/gary-j...d-may-take