The downward spiral continues.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/pol...emityn.www

Obama 53-43 OH
Obama 53-44 FL
Obama 54-42 PA

I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

The superPACs are going to stop supporting Romney and try to save house and senate seats. Using my WW2 analogy, Obama's red army is now in Berlin.

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

In terms of the overall national vote in November?

You really think Romney will get a lower % in 2012 than McCain did in 2008? If so... wow.

Now if we can get 10% out of Obama for Johnson...

Before the crazy conspiracy theories hit, this polling firm does NOT weigh respondents by party ID.

http://quinnipiacpoll.wordpress.com/2011...on-debate/

Quote:The partisan makeup of the electorate has always been one of the most contentious issues in election polling. There are those who believe that there is a fixed number of Democrats and Republicans in the nation. Quinnipiac, however, believes that while party identification is relatively stable, it can change over time and fluctuate temporarily in reaction to events in the news. For example, if one of the parties is going through a particularly difficult time voters can temporarily feel “less Republican” or “less Democrat” than usual.

The exit polls have shown how the partisan composition of the electorate can change over time. In the 2008 election, Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters by a 7 point margin, 39-32 percent. This was an increase of 7 points in the partisan gap from 2004 when Democrats and Republicans were tied 37-37 percent.

In Quinnipiac’s November 2 national poll, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 13 points, 35-22 percent. This Democratic advantage was 10 points higher than the 3 point gap in our October 4 poll, when Democrats led Republicans 31-28 percent. The New York Times/CBS News Poll also showed the Democrats with a double digit advantage of 10 points over Republicans, 35-25 percent in their most recent poll. This was a 3 point increase in the Democratic advantage from their previous poll which had the gap at 33-26 percent.

Whether or not this increase in the Democratic advantage remains for any length of time will depend on future events. The increased Democratic party identification advantage in Quinnipiac’s November 2 poll may have occurred because the poll was taken during a week when the stock market had one of its best weeks ever, GDP numbers made it clear that a double dip recession was not occurring, and the President was on the winning side in Libya and announced that American troops would be out of Iraq by year’s end.

Like most other major national polls, we don’t weight our data toward party identification. The only party identification target that one could possibly use would be the exit polls but the party identification in exit polls moves as we saw in 2008.

Nobody knows ahead of time what the actual party distribution will be in the 2012 election. If a pollster weights by party identification, they are in essence making an educated guess about what they think will happen. This undermines the scientific nature of polling. The pollster is basically substituting their own judgment for what the voters are saying in the poll. If people are feeling less Republican than usual and a pollster tries to weight up Republicans to compensate for that, the pollster is in essentially hiding something that is happening in the electorate because they think they know the voters better than the voters know themselves.

The party identification figures, along with other demographics, are released on our website with every poll.

I'll be the first to admit that if only 27% of the voters in Florida are Republican (as the linked-poll in the OP found), then Obama would, under those circumstances, win Florida. And if only 26% of the voters in Ohio are Republican (ditto), then Obama would, under those circumstances, win Ohio.

To me, the underlying question is how likely are those circumstances to occur?

(09-26-2012 07:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

In terms of the overall national vote in November?

You really think Romney will get a lower % in 2012 than McCain did in 2008? If so... wow.

If McCain ran against Romney, who do you think would win?

Romney's campaign has been pretty much a disaster the last month. Obama may not have the base energized like last time, but Romney has no appeal to conservatives, no appeal to Christians, the only people that he and his policies truly appeal to are the wealthy, social moderates, and there's only so many of those. And worse, unfortunately for him, Obama appeals to a lot of that group too.

Sure he'll get conservative votes, but it's not like he's fiscally conservative in any way, and he'll get the Christian base just because he's running as a Republican, but his values are no closer to Christians than Obama's are. Those groups aren't going to be excited to go to the polls to vote for a guy who isn't helping them in any way. There's no real reason to think Romney would do well at this point. At least McCain was a clearly different choice.

(09-26-2012 08:09 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I'll be the first to admit that if only 27% of the voters in Florida are Republican (as the linked-poll in the OP found), then Obama would, under those circumstances, win Florida. And if only 26% of the voters in Ohio are Republican (ditto), then Obama would, under those circumstances, win Ohio.

To me, the underlying question is how likely are those circumstances to occur?

If poll after poll keeps showing it, then I'd say it's pretty likely. The larger the sample size the lower the margin of error.

You have to keep in mind a lot of people who self-identified as Republicans in 2008 joined the "Tea Party" in 2009 and 2010, and started calling themselves "independents." (Even though they all still vote Republican.) And now, in the wake of that successful Democratic convention that caused a bounce by any measure, more people identify as Democrats. Calling yourself a "Republican" isn't as popular as many of you seem to think.

It's telling that gridlock is the best outcome we could hope for in this election.

(09-26-2012 08:19 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  If McCain ran against Romney, who do you think would win?

For the sake of discussion, let's say McCain would win. You'd still agree, wouldn't you, that such a hypothetical match-up would have almost zero relevance to comparing McCain's % against Senator Obama in 2008 with Romney's % against President Obama in 2012?

Quote:Romney's campaign has been pretty much a disaster the last month.

I don't see it that way. When he selected Paul Ryan as VP (August 10th with the public announcement next day), Romney was at 43.0% in the RCP average of polls -- his lowest standing of the year. And when Clinton gave his speech at the DNC on September 5th (I readily admit it *was* a masterful speech) Romney had increased to 46.8% -- his highest standing of the year. Since then, Obama has gotten a very sustained boost from the DNC, and Romney has opened himself up to some attack with the 47% thing, but I do not believe either of those factors will be significant when it's all said and done. We'll see.

Quote:Romney has no appeal to conservatives, no appeal to Christians, the only people that he and his policies truly appeal to are the wealthy, social moderates, and there's only so many of those. And worse, unfortunately for him, Obama appeals to a lot of that group too.

I agree with all of that.

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  The downward spiral continues.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/pol...emityn.www

Obama 53-43 OH
Obama 53-44 FL
Obama 54-42 PA

I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

The superPACs are going to stop supporting Romney and try to save house and senate seats. Using my WW2 analogy, Obama's red army is now in Berlin.

Wow...this is the most insightful thing you have ever said and a very good analogy. It is a red army. The U.S. economy is in the red and the Big O is a commie. I wonder if your subconscious is sneaking through a little bit.

Bow down before the one you serve...you and Maxie are gonna get what you deserve.

(09-26-2012 08:38 AM)Max Power Wrote:  If poll after poll keeps showing it, then I'd say it's pretty likely.

true dat

Quote:The larger the sample size the lower the margin of error.

makes sense but is that always true?

Quote:keep in mind a lot of people who self-identified as Republicans in 2008 joined the "Tea Party"...
Calling yourself a "Republican" isn't as popular as many of you seem to think.

still tho, its hard to see that gop brand is worse today than 2008 withbush/cheney, palin-drama & the financial meltdown

(09-26-2012 09:04 AM)Cardiff Wrote:  makes sense but is that always true?

It should. Why wouldn't it be?

Quote:still tho, its hard to see that gop brand is worse today than 2008 withbush/cheney, palin-drama & the financial meltdown

The GOP has taken a hard right since 2008 that turns off a lot of people. Just compare the clowns running for the nomination in 2012 vs those in 2008. Add to that the House Republicans are very unpopular and polls show voters still blame Bush more than Obama for the economy. If people had forgotten about all the damage Bush caused then he'd have been trotted out for their convention, but he wasn't because he's still poison.

(09-26-2012 09:27 AM)Max Power Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 09:04 AM)Cardiff Wrote:  makes sense but is that always true?

It should. Why wouldn't it be?

maybe it is

i got c- in 'probstat' in high school so idon't claim to understand how all that stuiff works

but i know somewhere i've seen polls with bigger samples and bigger margin of error

(09-26-2012 07:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

In terms of the overall national vote in November?

You really think Romney will get a lower % in 2012 than McCain did in 2008? If so... wow.

Yes. McCain would beat Romney any day of the week. I think a good chunk of the anti-Obama vote may go to Johnson. If you are going to lose 52-47%, and you don't like Romney anyway; why not just vote for who you want to? 52-41-7% sends a message to the establishment GOP.

(09-26-2012 08:09 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I'll be the first to admit that if only 27% of the voters in Florida are Republican (as the linked-poll in the OP found), then Obama would, under those circumstances, win Florida. And if only 26% of the voters in Ohio are Republican (ditto), then Obama would, under those circumstances, win Ohio.

To me, the underlying question is how likely are those circumstances to occur?

the question NG.. how many of those polled who do not declare themselves as Republican are Right-leaning libertarians?

How many who do not declare themselves as Democrats are Left-leaning republicans?

This is why I take any poll that claims to have numbers as to their polling breakdown as questionable. Because a lot of people prefer not to be identified by party, even if their beliefs/voting record would land them as such otherwise.

It's just like I hate polls which tend to quantify as "Likely voters", "registered voters", "adult voters".

"Are you going to vote?". Yes, no?
"Do you know who you're going to vote for?" Yes, No.
"If Yes, then may we ask who you're voting for?" Obama, Romney, Johnson, or someone else.
"Do you think you may change your mind between now and November 6th?" Yes, No.

Quote:Yes. McCain would beat Romney any day of the week.

NOT a chance... NOBODY was excited about McCain being the candidate. It was just the fact there was nobody really (other than Mitt) even really worth considering (and I was a Fred Thompson guy), and McCain had the benefit of having the national platform already being a Senator.

(09-26-2012 12:17 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 07:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

In terms of the overall national vote in November?

You really think Romney will get a lower % in 2012 than McCain did in 2008? If so... wow.

Yes. McCain would beat Romney any day of the week. I think a good chunk of the anti-Obama vote may go to Johnson. If you are going to lose 52-47%, and you don't like Romney anyway; why not just vote for who you want to? 52-41-7% sends a message to the establishment GOP.

I can't tell if you're really predicting that Romney will get 41% of the vote or not. But anyway, the idea that Romney will only get 41% is beyond crazy.

The idea that McCain would beat Romney -- even if true -- does not prove that McCain's % in 2008 will be, or even "ought" to be, higher than Romney's % in 2012. They are different campaigns with different issues, different candidates, and different elements at work.

RealClearPolitics polling average has been continually tracking the Obama-Romney matchup since February 2011. In all the 19 months since then, with the hundreds and hundreds of published surveys included in the data, Obama has never topped 49.5% in the national polling-average, and he only got that high at the peak of the anti-Romney attacks by Gingrich/Paul/Santorum/etc during the primaries. He has usually scored between 47.0-48.0, although he has been hovering between 48.0-49.0 since the DNC ended.

If, after all that, Obama suddenly breaks through to 52% in the actual election returns, the political polling industry would be thoroughly discredited for years to come*. There is simply no precedent for an incumbent seeking re-election to do that much better than indicated in the polls, and usually they don't do better at all; maybe by one point.

Romney, of course, hasn't exactly caught on with the public either. His best polling-average was 46.8% after the RNC ended, but he has slipped a point or two since the DNC.

Right now this minute, I'm inclined to think that Obama will win about 49%, Romney about 48%, and 3% for Gary Johnson and the other 3rd-party candidates. I was interested to see that Bob Beckel, a longtime Democrat pundit on TV (and Mondale's manager back in 1984) was also predicting a "one-point squeaker" in Obama's favor, with Ohio being the decisive state in the Electoral College. I think that is a very plausible scenario.

*thankful for small blessings

(09-27-2012 08:23 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 12:17 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 07:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

In terms of the overall national vote in November?

You really think Romney will get a lower % in 2012 than McCain did in 2008? If so... wow.

Yes. McCain would beat Romney any day of the week. I think a good chunk of the anti-Obama vote may go to Johnson. If you are going to lose 52-47%, and you don't like Romney anyway; why not just vote for who you want to? 52-41-7% sends a message to the establishment GOP.

I can't tell if you're really predicting that Romney will get 41% of the vote or not. But anyway, the idea that Romney will only get 41% is beyond crazy.

The idea that McCain would beat Romney -- even if true -- does not prove that McCain's % in 2008 will be, or even "ought" to be, higher than Romney's % in 2012. They are different campaigns with different issues, different candidates, and different elements at work.

RealClearPolitics polling average has been continually tracking the Obama-Romney matchup since February 2011. In all the 19 months since then, with the hundreds and hundreds of published surveys included in the data, Obama has never topped 49.5% in the national polling-average, and he only got that high at the peak of the anti-Romney attacks by Gingrich/Paul/Santorum/etc during the primaries. He has usually scored between 47.0-48.0, although he has been hovering between 48.0-49.0 since the DNC ended.

If, after all that, Obama suddenly breaks through to 52% in the actual election returns, the political polling industry would be thoroughly discredited for years to come*. There is simply no precedent for an incumbent seeking re-election to do that much better than indicated in the polls, and usually they don't do better at all; maybe by one point.

Romney, of course, hasn't exactly caught on with the public either. His best polling-average was 46.8% after the RNC ended, but he has slipped a point or two since the DNC.

Right now this minute, I'm inclined to think that Obama will win about 49%, Romney about 48%, and 3% for Gary Johnson and the other 3rd-party candidates. I was interested to see that Bob Beckel, a longtime Democrat pundit on TV (and Mondale's manager back in 1984) was also predicting a "one-point squeaker" in Obama's favor, with Ohio being the decisive state in the Electoral College. I think that is a very plausible scenario.

*thankful for small blessings

Of course I'm inclined to think the RCP average is favorable to the GOP candidate because it gives the same weight to polls that sampled cell phones to those that don't, but for the sake of argument, the RCP average has Obama at 49% and Romney at 45%. That means 6% are undecided. In order for it to be 49-48, Romney will have to win 3% of the undecideds and Obama zero (and Johnson/Goode/Stein 3). That just is not going to happen. We were in a similar situation at this point in 2004, and Kerry stomped Bush in the debates, and still only won 4/7 of the undecideds (Bush got 2, 1 went 3rd party).

From Nate Silver:

(09-27-2012 08:23 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 12:17 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 07:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

In terms of the overall national vote in November?

You really think Romney will get a lower % in 2012 than McCain did in 2008? If so... wow.

Yes. McCain would beat Romney any day of the week. I think a good chunk of the anti-Obama vote may go to Johnson. If you are going to lose 52-47%, and you don't like Romney anyway; why not just vote for who you want to? 52-41-7% sends a message to the establishment GOP.

I can't tell if you're really predicting that Romney will get 41% of the vote or not. But anyway, the idea that Romney will only get 41% is beyond crazy.

The idea that McCain would beat Romney -- even if true -- does not prove that McCain's % in 2008 will be, or even "ought" to be, higher than Romney's % in 2012. They are different campaigns with different issues, different candidates, and different elements at work.

RealClearPolitics polling average has been continually tracking the Obama-Romney matchup since February 2011. In all the 19 months since then, with the hundreds and hundreds of published surveys included in the data, Obama has never topped 49.5% in the national polling-average, and he only got that high at the peak of the anti-Romney attacks by Gingrich/Paul/Santorum/etc during the primaries. He has usually scored between 47.0-48.0, although he has been hovering between 48.0-49.0 since the DNC ended.

If, after all that, Obama suddenly breaks through to 52% in the actual election returns, the political polling industry would be thoroughly discredited for years to come*. There is simply no precedent for an incumbent seeking re-election to do that much better than indicated in the polls, and usually they don't do better at all; maybe by one point.

Romney, of course, hasn't exactly caught on with the public either. His best polling-average was 46.8% after the RNC ended, but he has slipped a point or two since the DNC.

Right now this minute, I'm inclined to think that Obama will win about 49%, Romney about 48%, and 3% for Gary Johnson and the other 3rd-party candidates. I was interested to see that Bob Beckel, a longtime Democrat pundit on TV (and Mondale's manager back in 1984) was also predicting a "one-point squeaker" in Obama's favor, with Ohio being the decisive state in the Electoral College. I think that is a very plausible scenario.

*thankful for small blessings

I am predicting that Romney will get 45%. 52-45-3. I think a lot of people are going to jump ship as this campaign goes down in flames. There were many reasons to still go out and vote for McCain. He was a war hero, very well-respected. Nobody respects Mittens.

(09-27-2012 09:09 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  

(09-27-2012 08:23 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:44 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  I predict that Romney will not hit 45%.

Right now this minute, I'm inclined to think that Obama will win about 49%, Romney about 48%, and 3% for Gary Johnson and the other 3rd-party candidates. I was interested to see that Bob Beckel, a longtime Democrat pundit on TV (and Mondale's manager back in 1984) was also predicting a "one-point squeaker" in Obama's favor, with Ohio being the decisive state in the Electoral College. I think that is a very plausible scenario.

I am predicting that Romney will get 45%. 52-45-3. I think a lot of people are going to jump ship as this campaign goes down in flames.

Well, it's interesting that we both think the "others" will get 3%.