The only 4 nominees from the non-incumbent party who weren't leading in the polls after their conventions, since 1968:

McGovern
Mondale
Dole
Romney


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Quote:I’ve been tiptoeing around this point, because I don’t think that our forecast model ought to represent the totality of our analysis about the election.

But if you look at the right-hand column of this page, you’ll notice that our forecast has moved toward Barack Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a three-in-four chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6.

I’ll explain a little bit more about how the model comes to that conclusion in a moment, but the intuition behind it is pretty simple:

1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below-average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an almost exact tie in the race.
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now, then he will eventually lose.

Oh, I thought you were going to say, "Because there are alot of stupid people in this country."

Max is getting worried so he's posting stuff like this to reassure himself.

Well not just favorite, clear favorite. Oh, no, no, no. No, I STRENUOUSLY object.

Max, you didn't finish the statement. I'll help you out.

Why Obama is the clear favorite for radical lefties

The CPUSA has endorsed him. Same with the Socialists. Nuf said.

CNN factcheck on total jobs created in Obama's first term -

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/05/politics/f...index.html

Numbers mean squat to this president. 13 million unemployed is a whole hell of a lot of misery for those people. What is he doing, reading letters and playing golf.

Fact is, Obama has created 4.5 million private sector jobs in the last 3 years-- more than Bush in both his terms combined. We just unfortunately lost millions during his first few months thanks to the Republican Recession, and any economist will tell you jobs are a lagging indicator so those should be laid at Bush's feet. You can't honestly blame Obama for the job losses his first few months.

Romney's in trouble. Look at the chart-- the incumbent party nominee gains an average of 13.6 points between now and the election. If Obama gets just an average bump out of this convention Rom's toast.

(09-05-2012 04:15 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Fact is, Obama has created 4.5 million private sector jobs in the last 3 years-- more than Bush his entire term.

Not if you measure both Obama and Bush in the same way. You are measuring Obama one way and Bush another to come up with your number.

To be fair I would discount job losses in Bush's first few months too, but that's not going to bump him to 4.5 million.

THe economy sucks, ambulance-chaser. The Dems keep fudging their numbers and refuse to accept the fact 2009 happened while COTUS was in the Oval Office. He assumes the FULL duty once he takes the oath of office. The DIms can keep trying to twist things 13 ways to Sunday but all the indicators show Obama is a one man wrecking ball that has grossly mismanged the economy. Here are the numbers COTUS is responsible for:
- 23,000,000 Americans UNemployed or UNDERemployed; many have given up looking.
- 47 + million Americans on foodstamps; the most EVER.
- 42 straight months of an unemployment rate of 8.0% or higher.
- First President to have the U.S. credit downgraded.
- $5.4 TRILLON in new debt since taking office.
- 300,000 NET new private sector jobs since taking office in January 2009.
- America has fallen to # 7 in the "best economies" ranking of all countries; # 5 last year.
- GDP currently around 1.8%.
- ObamaCare regulations and new taxes are going to slam private businesses in 2013 (part of fiscal cliff)
- The automatic $1.2tt in cuts to DOD and social services will reduce the U.S. GDP about 1.5% (part of fiscal cliff)
- The ending of the Bush tax cuts will help kill off more investment and middle class savings (part of fiscal cliff).

I look forward to Obama addressing these economic realities in his speech on Thursday.

And you'll still be waiting on him to address those on Friday morning.

Obama is clear favorite because the majority of voting Americans are out of their F'ng minds.

I'm concerned that the GOP might suppress the vote in FL, PA, and OH. If the voting hours were like 2008, Obama would win by 3-5.

Why Romney is clearly the favorite...


CARTER

Obama is the clear favorite because there are more people taking from the system rather than paying into it.

You have to ask yourself why would anyone vote for Obama. Romney was a success with what he did. Obama?

(09-05-2012 09:54 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  You have to ask yourself why would anyone vote for Obama. Romney was a success with what he did. Obama?

Obama's goal is to level incomes (from each according to his ability to each according to his needs). About 51% of America likes that.

Equal opportunity was a nice goal back in the day. Today it's all about equal results.