(08-16-2012 04:06 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Palin put McCain up in the polls too. Romney will also get a boost from his convention. His Mass. record, taxes, Medicare, and Latinos aren't going away.

The differences between Palin and Ryan are huge

• Ryan is a policy wonk
• Ryan is more know for economic stances
• Ryan is an experienced legislator at the federal level
  

I still won't vote for Romney but picking Ryan seems t signal he is going to try to make this election about the economy. "It's the economy stupid" seemed to work for Clinton in 92 and Romney is borrowing that page.

Meanwhile team Obama wants to talk about Romney's taxes and play the mediscare game..

Rasmussen and Gallup have proven GOP biases of a few points (Rasmussen 4, Gallup 2.5 in 2010), and have shown the race to be tied or even Romney leading when virtually every other poll showed Obama with a 5 or so point lead. Purple Strategies is new so we don't have actual election results to compare their polling to, but they've consistently overstated the GOP compared to other polls.

Romney got a bump out of his VP pick which is to be expected (the historical average is 3-4 points, but the average Ryan bump so far is just 1-2 points), and when the GOP convention is over he should get a further bump and the RCP average might even show him ahead. But historically that wears off in a few days, and when the Dem convention is over we should be back near square one.



Nate Silver (predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008) still has Romney's chances at 29%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I don't know how biased Gallup supposedly is, but I tend to believe Gallup - R +2 and Rasmussen R +1 are more accurate than the CNN and Fox polls that have Obama at +7 and +9.


At this point in 2004 the RealClearPolitics average was Kerry +1.4.

(08-16-2012 12:21 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  I don't know how biased Gallup supposedly is, but I tend to believe Gallup - R +2 and Rasmussen R +1 are more accurate than the CNN and Fox polls that have Obama at +7 and +9.


At this point in 2004 the RealClearPolitics average was Kerry +1.4.

The CNN and Fox polls may have skewed Dem that time, but they haven't consistently skewed Dem at all. That's why it was such a big deal. They've released polls that have looked favorable for Romney. On the other hand when you're Rasmussen and consistently skew GOP every poll, showing Romney breaking away isn't as relevant.

Kerry fell apart late. This election remains to be seen but in the end I trust Obama's likeability will carry the day, helped by a good consistent thrashing of Ryan's plan.

(08-16-2012 03:06 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Kerry fell apart late.

really?

the way i remember, he fell apart when the swift-boat started in july
august and september were terrible

then he rocked the debate in miami on september 30 and breathed new life into his campaign and he made it close

2.5% margin nationwide, 286-251 in the college
really not that bad

looking back on it, i wonder what he saw in edwards to be the #2

Quote:This election remains to be seen

yep

not follwoing the polls on a day=by=day basis but my sense of it is that obama is up by 1 or 2 points

Kerry lost me when he picked Edwards. I was so fed up with Shrub that I was actually considering Kerry. But I consider Johnny the Ambulance Chaser to be the most despicable person ever in American politics--and I felt that way based on what I knew in 2004. So there was no way he was going to get my vote.

(08-16-2012 03:37 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Kerry lost me when he picked Edwards...
I consider Johnny the Ambulance Chaser to be the most despicable person ever in American politics--and I felt that way based on what I knew in 2004.

i wish we knew the name of the 'faithless elector" who voted for edwards instaed of kerry

we know they were from minnesota
so there's 10 people it could be

I must have missed that debate. I think if I'd seen Kerry "rock" it, I'd have remembered it.