(08-15-2012 08:49 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 01:27 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 01:04 AM)FULL_MONTY Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 12:53 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  If they start at $2B for 12 years, that's $166M/year, which (using the 70/30 FB/BB split) breaks down to:

$8.3M for FB-only
$2.7M for BB-only
$11M for all-sports

BYU's not coming for that.

I tend to believe it will end up as:

$12M for FB-only
$4M for BB-only
$16M for all-sports

Or $240M/year overall and $2.9B over 12 years

Based on speculative statements seen in the press:
"Schools will see ACC-type money" - $16M/year is pretty close to $17M/year
"BE deal could approach PAC-level money" - $2.9B is pretty close to $3B overall for the same 12-year contract

Now if the BE truly saw a $20M/year/school deal, it would be for $300M/year overall or $3.6B over a 12-year contract, or 26% more than the ACC gets per year.

why 12 years?

It's what seems to be going around with the media deals of late. PAC signed a 12-year deal, XII signed a 13-year deal, etc.

The last offer from ESPN was for 9 years, so you cannot make the assumption that $2B and 12 years go together.

Sure I can. The TV deals and bowl media rights deals are getting longer and longer. 12 years also coincides with the new BCS. If the Big East gets $2B for only 9 years, then that's fantastic:

$11.1M/year FB-only
$3.7M/year BB-only
$14.8M/year all-sports

The other reason I think the $2B is for 12 years is that fits the per-school number that ESPN offered last May. That makes sense from a negotiating perspective to start the bidding at the level that it was given previously.

(08-16-2012 08:32 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 08:49 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 01:27 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 01:04 AM)FULL_MONTY Wrote:  

(08-15-2012 12:53 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  If they start at $2B for 12 years, that's $166M/year, which (using the 70/30 FB/BB split) breaks down to:

$8.3M for FB-only
$2.7M for BB-only
$11M for all-sports

BYU's not coming for that.

I tend to believe it will end up as:

$12M for FB-only
$4M for BB-only
$16M for all-sports

Or $240M/year overall and $2.9B over 12 years

Based on speculative statements seen in the press:
"Schools will see ACC-type money" - $16M/year is pretty close to $17M/year
"BE deal could approach PAC-level money" - $2.9B is pretty close to $3B overall for the same 12-year contract

Now if the BE truly saw a $20M/year/school deal, it would be for $300M/year overall or $3.6B over a 12-year contract, or 26% more than the ACC gets per year.

why 12 years?

It's what seems to be going around with the media deals of late. PAC signed a 12-year deal, XII signed a 13-year deal, etc.

The last offer from ESPN was for 9 years, so you cannot make the assumption that $2B and 12 years go together.

Sure I can. The TV deals and bowl media rights deals are getting longer and longer. 12 years also coincides with the new BCS. If the Big East gets $2B for only 9 years, then that's fantastic:

$11.1M/year FB-only
$3.7M/year BB-only
$14.8M/year all-sports

The other reason I think the $2B is for 12 years is that fits the per-school number that ESPN offered last May. That makes sense from a negotiating perspective to start the bidding at the level that it was given previously.

Quote from the OP link:

"Last year, the league reportedly turned down an ESPN deal worth $1.4 billion over nine years. The Big East negotiations are expected to start at $2 billion."

I'm not saying you're literally wrong. I'm just saying you could just as easily assume it's for 9 years (which ESPN last offered), or 15 years, which several of the conference contracts are now. The total doesn't mean much, unless it is attached to a specific number of years, so the $2B doesn't tell the whole story, b/c there's a huge range between 9 and 15 years. Heck, it could even be for 5 or 6 years, lol.

All I'm saying is that it's not an informative number w/o knowing the length of the contract. That's all I meant by "you can't assume..."