Tom Glavine may very well have been the last person to ever get to 300 wins.

Looking at his carrer as a blueprint (like I did in the 3K hits thread) here is where he was at particular milestones:

100 wins: 28 years
150 wins: 31 years
200 wins: 34 years
250 wins: 37 years
300 wins: 41 years

Here is the active list:

Quote:1. Jamie Moyer (25, 49) 269 L
2. Andy Pettitte (17, 40) 243 L
3. Roy Halladay (15, 35) 193 R
4. Tim Hudson (14, 36) 192 R
5. CC Sabathia (12, 31) 188 L
6. Livan Hernandez (17, 37) 177 R
7. Derek Lowe (16, 39) 174 R
8. Mark Buehrle (13, 33) 170 L
Bartolo Colon (15, 39) 170 R
10. Kevin Millwood (16, 37) 167 R
11. Roy Oswalt (12, 34) 163 R
12. Barry Zito (13, 34) 154 L
13. Freddy Garcia (14, 35) 150 R
14. Chris Carpenter (14, 37) 144 R
15. Jeff Suppan (17, 37) 140 R
16. Johan Santana (12, 33) 139 L
17. A.J. Burnett (14, 35) 135 R
18. Carlos Zambrano (12, 31) 132 R
19. Josh Beckett (12, 32) 130 R
Ted Lilly (14, 36) 130 L
Randy Wolf (14, 35) 130 L
22. John Lackey (10, 33) 128 R
23. Cliff Lee (11, 33) 121 L
24. Bronson Arroyo (13, 35) 119 R
Brad Penny (13, 34) 119 R
Justin Verlander (8, 29) 119 R
27. Ryan Dempster (15, 35) 118 R
Jake Peavy (11, 31) 118 R
29. Dan Haren (10, 31) 115 R
30. Kyle Lohse (12, 33) 114 R
Darren Oliver (19, 41) 114 L
32. Jason Marquis (13, 33) 111 R
33. Vicente Padilla (14, 34) 108 R
Carl Pavano (14, 36) 108 R
35. Joel Pineiro (12, 33) 104 R
36. Miguel Batista (18, 41) 102 R
Aaron Harang (11, 34) 102 R
38. Brett Tomko (14, 39) 100 R
39. Jered Weaver (7, 29) 97 R
40. Jake Westbrook (12, 34) 96 R
41. Felix Hernandez (8, 26) 95 R

I have highlighted the pitchers that would fall into Glavine's trajectory at those age and win numbers.

Wow. That's it. Two guys that basically have a chance.

CC is in a good spot. He started off young (age 20) and successful (50 wins by the time he was 23--Glavine didn't get to 50 until age 25).

He will be at around 194 by the end of the season...meaning he will only need 106 to get to 300. His weight and conditioning are the only two things that may keep him from that mark.

Felix Hernandez is on a good pace. Still 13 or so years away, so a lot of things can happen.

Weird to think, if CC doesn't do it, that AT BEST there will be about 15-20 years between 300 game winners. Glavine hit it in 2008.

I would think we had a lot more 300 game winners when the four-man rotation was the standard. Much more difficult these days. I may be wrong and I'm not looking it up.

(08-09-2012 09:40 AM)georgiatiger Wrote:  I would think we had a lot more 300 game winners when the four-man rotation was the standard. Much more difficult these days. I may be wrong and I'm not looking it up.

+1. I hate the five-man rotation. And even after a five-man rotation, heaven forbid a pitcher going beyond 120 pitches. Way too coddled.

A five-man rotation is why I have a problem with a pitcher receiving the MVP over a position player.

(08-09-2012 09:40 AM)georgiatiger Wrote:  I would think we had a lot more 300 game winners when the four-man rotation was the standard. Much more difficult these days. I may be wrong and I'm not looking it up.

Well, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson were all 5 man guys. Seaver, Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro and Gaylord Perry were in both the four and five man era, which ended in the mid 1970's.

(08-09-2012 01:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-09-2012 09:40 AM)georgiatiger Wrote:  I would think we had a lot more 300 game winners when the four-man rotation was the standard. Much more difficult these days. I may be wrong and I'm not looking it up.

Well, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson were all 5 man guys. Seaver, Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro and Gaylord Perry were in both the four and five man era, which ended in the mid 1970's.

Just more difficult these days. Just like 30 wins.

(08-09-2012 01:44 PM)georgiatiger Wrote:  

(08-09-2012 01:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-09-2012 09:40 AM)georgiatiger Wrote:  I would think we had a lot more 300 game winners when the four-man rotation was the standard. Much more difficult these days. I may be wrong and I'm not looking it up.

Well, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson were all 5 man guys. Seaver, Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro and Gaylord Perry were in both the four and five man era, which ended in the mid 1970's.

Just more difficult these days. Just like 30 wins.

No doubt. Margin for error is so much thinner. Only benefit is with specialized relief (unlike the 60's and 70's) a pitcher only needs to go inot the seventh to hope for a win instead of having a dead arm in the ninth like the old guys had to.

Outside of Sabathia and Fernandez you have Verlander (29 YO - 119 Wins) and Kershaw (24 YO - 56 Wins). Verlander pitched in college so he got a later start than the others mentioned (first full year when he was 23). But he is averaging 17 wins per year since the beginning of his second season. That means at that current pace (plus he plays for a team that gives him run support) he would break the 300 barrier around season 2023 (40 Years Old). Kershaw is only 24 and is dominant but doesn't get much run support in LA. As long as he stays healthy, he should be on a similar trajectory as Sabathia.

One thing about Felix Hernandez is if he wants a shot at 300 he has to get out of Seattle. Maybe their offense will improve, but they have been dreadful the last 3 years.

(08-09-2012 03:22 PM)plaidtiger Wrote:  Outside of Sabathia and Fernandez you have Verlander (29 YO - 119 Wins) and Kershaw (24 YO - 56 Wins). Verlander pitched in college so he got a later start than the others mentioned (first full year when he was 23). But he is averaging 17 wins per year since the beginning of his second season. That means at that current pace (plus he plays for a team that gives him run support) he would break the 300 barrier around season 2023 (40 Years Old). Kershaw is only 24 and is dominant but doesn't get much run support in LA. As long as he stays healthy, he should be on a similar trajectory as Sabathia.

One thing about Felix Hernandez is if he wants a shot at 300 he has to get out of Seattle. Maybe their offense will improve, but they have been dreadful the last 3 years.

Yeah, I missed Verlander. Werid to think that we would be looking at 11 or more years for that to happen. SO far away.

(08-09-2012 03:12 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-09-2012 01:44 PM)georgiatiger Wrote:  

(08-09-2012 01:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(08-09-2012 09:40 AM)georgiatiger Wrote:  I would think we had a lot more 300 game winners when the four-man rotation was the standard. Much more difficult these days. I may be wrong and I'm not looking it up.

Well, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson were all 5 man guys. Seaver, Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro and Gaylord Perry were in both the four and five man era, which ended in the mid 1970's.

Just more difficult these days. Just like 30 wins.

No doubt. Margin for error is so much thinner. Only benefit is with specialized relief (unlike the 60's and 70's) a pitcher only needs to go inot the seventh to hope for a win instead of having a dead arm in the ninth like the old guys had to.

Another benefit is that their arms probably last a couple of years longer.

(08-09-2012 03:30 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Yeah, I missed Verlander. Werid to think that we would be looking at 11 or more years for that to happen. SO far away.

JV threw 130+ pitches the other night against the Yanks. Leyland said he didnt bother using a clicker to count pitches when JV is on the mound, he lets the opposing team tell him how good or bad Verlander's stuff is.

(08-09-2012 03:22 PM)plaidtiger Wrote:  Outside of Sabathia and Fernandez you have Verlander (29 YO - 119 Wins) and Kershaw (24 YO - 56 Wins). Verlander pitched in college so he got a later start than the others mentioned (first full year when he was 23). But he is averaging 17 wins per year since the beginning of his second season. That means at that current pace (plus he plays for a team that gives him run support) he would break the 300 barrier around season 2023 (40 Years Old). Kershaw is only 24 and is dominant but doesn't get much run support in LA. As long as he stays healthy, he should be on a similar trajectory as Sabathia.

One thing about Felix Hernandez is if he wants a shot at 300 he has to get out of Seattle. Maybe their offense will improve, but they have been dreadful the last 3 years.

My thoughts exactly on Felix. Remember the guy (rightfully) won the Cy Young a couple years ago with 13 wins. And it was a miracle he got that many with that sorry excuse for an offense.

One thing that could help guys stick around longer is 5-6 innings being the norm, but you're then relying on 3-4 relievers keeping your lead through the end of the game for you to get the win.

CC had a decent chance of he stays healthy.

(08-10-2012 10:03 AM)Rob Wrote:  CC had a decent chance of he stays healthy.

He'll probably miss out on a few wins due to having an inept manager who completely overmanages his bullpen. But, thats a different thread for a different day.

Every season it seems like he's 4-3 in mid-May and the next thing you know its mid-August and he's 14-4 or so (currently 12-3). This is the 1st year since he's been in NY that he hasnt appeared to add weight as the season rolls on, but also seems like its his least dominant.