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REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
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Max Power Offline
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REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Well, he could lose Iowa and win New Hampshire or Colorado instead, but Obama has 3 point leads in RCP averages there, so he'd be wise to focus on Iowa.

Anyway, Obama is up in all these states and a poll released today shows Obama up 8 in Ohio:

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/07/27/oh-bama/

RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Ohio 47.4 42.4 Obama +5.0
Virginia 46.0 44.8 Obama +1.2
Florida 45.8 44.7 Obama +1.1
Iowa 45.8 44.5 Obama +1.3
Colorado 46.5 43.5 Obama +3.0
New Hampshire 47.3 44.3 Obama +3.0

I just can't see Romney winning the electoral college without some severe economic shock in the next 3 months. Ohio in particular is a huge uphill battle. He'll pick Portman for that reason, but it won't be enough.
07-27-2012 10:49 AM
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OLD DIRTY Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Up by 8 in Ohio, yet the sampling was +11 self-identified Democrat voters.

These polls are made to shape public opinion, not reflect it and mean nothing except to "you people."
07-27-2012 01:21 PM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Exactly. Every single poll that has showed Obama with any kind of lead has greatly oversampled democrats. As such they're not worth the paper they're printed on.
07-27-2012 02:07 PM
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swagsurfer11 Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
That damn socialist ain't gonna win. Nobody that I know is voting for him. I wish people would wake up! He's destroying America! Everything has gone to hell in a hand basket since he's been in office. 4 more years and he'll be after my gun, indocrinating my kids in communism and making me be Muslim like him. Romney has MoMittum. I think he has a secret plan to win this thing in the end, not sure what it is right now.
07-27-2012 02:28 PM
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TampaKnight Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Vote libertarian.
07-27-2012 04:14 PM
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DrTorch Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
(07-27-2012 01:21 PM)OLD DIRTY Wrote:  Up by 8 in Ohio,

Yeah, and now the Browns have been sold to a "union buster" so it's all over for Romney there! 03-wink
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2012 05:04 PM by DrTorch.)
07-27-2012 05:03 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
(07-27-2012 01:21 PM)OLD DIRTY Wrote:  Up by 8 in Ohio, yet the sampling was +11 self-identified Democrat voters.

These polls are made to shape public opinion, not reflect it and mean nothing except to "you people."

Where did you find that? I don't see it in the link I gave you.

Most polls were actually shown to have a Republican bias in 2010. Rasmussen overrated Republicans by an average of four points!

See: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...-strongly/


[Image: pollacc1.png]


There's very good reason to believe the polls are being too generous to Romney!
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2012 06:38 PM by Max Power.)
07-27-2012 06:32 PM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
You are deluded beyond measure if you think Obama pulls 19% of republican voters in Ohio. This poll is a major outlier.
07-27-2012 07:16 PM
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Missouri is strongly in Romney's column, there are even polls in Michigan that show Romney leading. Obama is going to lose.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2012 03:39 PM by THE NC Herd Fan.)
07-28-2012 03:37 PM
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Bearcat_Bounce Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Forget Mitty Cat and Barry, vote for Gary Johnson.
07-28-2012 05:05 PM
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RobertN Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
(07-28-2012 03:37 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Missouri is strongly in Romney's column, there are even polls in Michigan that show Romney leading. Obama is going to lose.
Missouri isn't a surprise. Much of Missouri is similar to Mississippi or Alabama-rightwing white Christian fundamentalists. I think it was in fact ONE poll showing Romney up in Michigan. Sorry but the people of Michigan are smarter than that. THey know who saved the auto industry and know who didn't want to save it.
07-28-2012 05:31 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Who said anything about hillbilly Missouri? And LOL @ giving Michigan to Romney because a GOP polling firm has him up one, when polls came out the same day showing Obama up 6 (by another GOP firm) and FOURTEEN (albeit by a Dem firm).
07-28-2012 07:01 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
(07-27-2012 10:49 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Well, he could lose Iowa and win New Hampshire or Colorado instead, but Obama has 3 point leads in RCP averages there, so he'd be wise to focus on Iowa.

Anyway, Obama is up in all these states and a poll released today shows Obama up 8 in Ohio:

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/07/27/oh-bama/

RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Ohio 47.4 42.4 Obama +5.0
Virginia 46.0 44.8 Obama +1.2
Florida 45.8 44.7 Obama +1.1
Iowa 45.8 44.5 Obama +1.3
Colorado 46.5 43.5 Obama +3.0
New Hampshire 47.3 44.3 Obama +3.0

I just can't see Romney winning the electoral college without some severe economic shock in the next 3 months. Ohio in particular is a huge uphill battle. He'll pick Portman for that reason, but it won't be enough.

Those are not really leads for Obama. The reason? There are about 10% still undecided in each of those states and undecideds typically break 70-30 to 80-20 against the incumbent. In this case there is reason to believe that will hold, or the percentage voting against the incumbent may be higher, given the number of republicans who have not yet warmed to Romney, but who can be pretty universally expected to vote against Obama.

If it breaks 70-30, Ohio may be too close to call but the rest would be pretty firmly Romney. If it breaks 80-20, they're all Romney.
(This post was last modified: 07-30-2012 05:52 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
07-30-2012 05:52 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Source? I certainly find the 80-20 statistic hard to believe. At this point in the game, the incumbent is already well known and they're just getting to know the challenger, but whether they break toward the challenger depends a lot on whether they like the challenger as they get to know him. That's the purpose of all of Obama's attack ads on Bain and tax returns and horse dancing-- to define him as a stiff rich azzhole before he can introduce himself to the American people. I'd bet dollars to donuts the undecideds don't break 80% for Romney in rust belt Ohio.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2012 01:12 PM by Max Power.)
07-31-2012 01:11 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
NYT/CBS News/Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading Ohio 50-44, and most shockingly Florida 51-45.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/01/us/pol...odayspaper


And as a reminder, Quinnipiac was the best performing polling organization in 2010:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...-strongly/
[Image: pollacc1.png]

Still no source for the 80/20 claim? I wasn't being coy; I'd like to know. It certainly wasn't the case in 2004, because challenger Kerry was ahead at this point in the race, but the undecideds broke to Bush in the end. Anyway, it doesn't matter much where the undecideds break if Obama had 51% in Florida now, does it?

I'll say it again: absent a severe economic shock Obama has this in the bag.
08-01-2012 08:54 AM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
Wow, you mean a poll that oversampled dems by 8% in Ohio and 9% in Florida shows Obama winning? Who'd a thunk it?04-jawdrop

BTW, going off polling accuracy for a mid-term for a general trying to make yourself feel good is fairly pathetic. No shock you embrace it.

Fool.
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2012 09:22 AM by Ninerfan1.)
08-01-2012 09:05 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
(07-31-2012 01:11 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Source? I certainly find the 80-20 statistic hard to believe. At this point in the game, the incumbent is already well known and they're just getting to know the challenger, but whether they break toward the challenger depends a lot on whether they like the challenger as they get to know him. That's the purpose of all of Obama's attack ads on Bain and tax returns and horse dancing-- to define him as a stiff rich azzhole before he can introduce himself to the American people. I'd bet dollars to donuts the undecideds don't break 80% for Romney in rust belt Ohio.

I've seen it several places, don't have a link.

I will concede that IIRC it applies more to undecideds as of final poll before the election, and not this far in advance, which would sort of discredit the Kerry example. In many ways, this probably is a lot like the Kerry-Bush race in that the incumbent has a pretty high negative score. What will tell the story is how it plays out from here.

I do think there may be a higher than normal number of undecideds who simply despise Obama but have not yet been able to accept Mitt. If that's the case, then the 80-20 might very well hold up.

Bottom line--it's really too early to tell, but an incumbent running in the mid-40s with 10% undecided by no means has it won--or lost.
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2012 09:39 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-01-2012 09:38 AM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: REMINDER: Romney must win FL and OH and VA and IA
(08-01-2012 09:38 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I will concede that IIRC it applies more to undecideds as of final poll before the election, and not this far in advance, which would sort of discredit the Kerry example.

That makes more sense. Of course by that time only a few percentage points will be undecided, so it carries much less meaning.

I did Google it and found a 1989 article that says "80% of the time, most of the undecideds break toward the challenger," calling this the "incumbent rule." Which is much different than your suggestion that they break to the challenger by a 4:1 ratio. Perhaps this finding has been misunderstood?

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm
Quote:But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.


Nate Silver of the NYT did an analysis of 83 House, Senate and Governor races and polls taken 30 days before the election and found that the "incumbent rule" "just hasn't been true to any meaningful extent in recent elections."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...al-wisdom/
Quote:There is also not any particular evidence that, as Mr. Trende suggests, the majority of the undecided vote broke against the incumbents. On average, the incumbent candidates led by 8.1 points in the polls with 30 days to go; they won their elections by an average of 7.2 points. That’s not a huge difference, needless to say.

...

By the way, the theory espoused by Mr. Kraushaar and others isn’t coming out of nowhere: there is solid evidence that it used to be true, 20 or 25 years ago. Back then, the undecideds in a race usually could be counted upon to break toward the challenger: the name given to this phenomenon was the “incumbent rule.”

But polling has changed since then — as have social norms. On the one hand, pollsters have become more inclined to “push” voters toward an answer — if a voter declines to state a candidate preference initially, the pollster may ask her which candidate she is leaning toward, which may bring implicit preferences to the fore. On the other, voters have perhaps become more willing to advance a candidate preference based on information as thin as party identification. A conservative voter who is unhappy with the Democratic incumbent in their district, for instance, may be willing to note their support for the Republican opponent even if they have never heard of him or her before.


Quote:In many ways, this probably is a lot like the Kerry-Bush race in that the incumbent has a pretty high negative score. What will tell the story is how it plays out from here.

But Obama has lower negatives than 2004 Bush, and Romney has worse negatives than 2004 Kerry. In Ohio, Obama has 51% favorability to Romney's 40%. In Florida, it's 50% to 41%. Romney is underwater in favorability in Ohio, 40-43%, and in Florida, 41-42%. Kerry was never underwater in favorability. He had a likeability problem, but he never had much of an unlikeability problem. I think that's a big difference between him and Romney.

Quote:Bottom line--it's really too early to tell, but an incumbent running in the mid-40s with 10% undecided by no means has it won--or lost.

True, but if polls keep showing Obama at 50%+ in OH (or like this one, FL), he can rest easy.
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2012 10:49 AM by Max Power.)
08-01-2012 10:47 AM
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