Go to the other threads to argue the outcome, this thread accepts the ruling as a given and discusses the impact on the election.

My thoughts:
1) Romney lost a lot of potential ammo and will have to argue that the healthcare system is still broken (even if it's not unconstitutional). Look to the GOP to shift from constitutionality to legislative impact.

2) Obama will not lose his biggest piece of legislation from his first term. While not a "win" it's at least dodging a major bullet.

1. Repeal and replace becomes much more potent an argument because the people who came out in 2010 because they hated Obamacare will come out again for that purpose. The worry the conservative base wouldn't come out for Romney has been taken off the table IMO.
2. Romney can rightly claim Obama, in spite of his promises, has raised taxes dramatically on the American people. I see a campaign commercial coming where it shows Obama swearing it wasn't a tax and then a reference to the court that said it was. I'm betting he already regrets being so adament about that.
3. It's a victory for Obama in that his key piece of legislation stands, but I don't know that he wouldn't have been better off having it struck down.

Will all of this translate to a Romney victory? No idea. Lot of time between now and election day.

I think this has to be a shot in the arm for the Romney campaign. The law is extremely unpopular and now that it is officially recognized for what it is, a tax, it should give Romney some ammo. Can he capitalize???

The problem is that Romney will never tell you what he wants to replace it with. Out of the 3 outcomes, I think the repeal of the mandate was the worst because you have all these people added without additional revenue.

(06-28-2012 09:57 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  The problem is that Romney will never tell you what he wants to replace it with. Out of the 3 outcomes, I think the repeal of the mandate was the worst because you have all these people added without additional revenue.

Agree.

Now Romney and the republicans will have to come up with an alternative to replace it with. French health care is out there waiting. And that could be a winner for them. As it stands now, this is just a race between two losers.

(06-28-2012 09:41 AM)AtlanticLeague Wrote:  Go to the other threads to argue the outcome, this thread accepts the ruling as a given and discusses the impact on the election.

My thoughts:
1) Romney lost a lot of potential ammo and will have to argue that the healthcare system is still broken (even if it's not unconstitutional). Look to the GOP to shift from constitutionality to legislative impact.

Just the opposite.. remember Obama's promise? No new taxes on anyone earning $250K? The SC just said Obama pushed through a tax on everyone.

Romney just got a HUGE amount of ammunition to fight back..

Quote:2) Obama will not lose his biggest piece of legislation from his first term. While not a "win" it's at least dodging a major bullet.

This is the one thing that Obama will be able to claim? Yes, I raised everyone's tax! Elect me again, so I can raise your taxes again, even though I promised not to!

Repeal also just became easier in the Senate. Now that it has been proven a tax it only takes 51 votes to repeal it.

(06-28-2012 09:50 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  1. Repeal and replace becomes much more potent an argument because the people who came out in 2010 because they hated Obamacare will come out again for that purpose. The worry the conservative base wouldn't come out for Romney has been taken off the table IMO.
2. Romney can rightly claim Obama, in spite of his promises, has raised taxes dramatically on the American people. I see a campaign commercial coming where it shows Obama swearing it wasn't a tax and then a reference to the court that said it was. I'm betting he already regrets being so adament about that.
3. It's a victory for Obama in that his key piece of legislation stands, but I don't know that he wouldn't have been better off having it struck down.

Will all of this translate to a Romney victory? No idea. Lot of time between now and election day.

I am ok if it repealed and replaces if it is for single payer.

(06-28-2012 09:55 AM)JerryJeff Wrote:  I think this has to be a shot in the arm for the Romney campaign. The law is extremely unpopular and now that it is officially recognized for what it is, a tax, it should give Romney some ammo. Can he capitalize???

It is unpopular(as a whole) but many individual items in the total bill are. The problem is that Faux and the rightwing media LIE about what is in it. When people actually know what is in it, they tend to like it.

Which is pretty much what Pelosi was saying. People didn't know what was in it because the rightwing was lying about what was in it. Once they find out what is actually when it is implemented, they will like it.

(06-28-2012 10:01 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 09:57 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  The problem is that Romney will never tell you what he wants to replace it with. Out of the 3 outcomes, I think the repeal of the mandate was the worst because you have all these people added without additional revenue.

Agree.

Now Romney and the republicans will have to come up with an alternative to replace it with. French health care is out there waiting. And that could be a winner for them. As it stands now, this is just a race between two losers.

I have a hard time picturing any GOP member saying, "Let's do what the French did!"

(06-28-2012 10:03 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 09:41 AM)AtlanticLeague Wrote:  Go to the other threads to argue the outcome, this thread accepts the ruling as a given and discusses the impact on the election.

My thoughts:
1) Romney lost a lot of potential ammo and will have to argue that the healthcare system is still broken (even if it's not unconstitutional). Look to the GOP to shift from constitutionality to legislative impact.

Just the opposite.. remember Obama's promise? No new taxes on anyone earning $250K? The SC just said Obama pushed through a tax on everyone.

Romney just got a HUGE amount of ammunition to fight back..

Quote:2) Obama will not lose his biggest piece of legislation from his first term. While not a "win" it's at least dodging a major bullet.

This is the one thing that Obama will be able to claim? Yes, I raised everyone's tax! Elect me again, so I can raise your taxes again, even though I promised not to!

I am pretty sure most were HOPING there would be no new taxes or increases but if anyone actually believed it would happen that way is living in denial of reality.

(06-28-2012 10:20 AM)RobertN Wrote:  It is unpopular(as a whole) but many individual items in the total bill are. The problem is that Faux and the rightwing media LIE about what is in it. When people actually know what is in it, they tend to like it.

Which is pretty much what Pelosi was saying. People didn't know what was in it because the rightwing was lying about what was in it. Once they find out what is actually when it is implemented, they will like it. \

What did they lie about that was in it Robert? We've had the bill out for how long now? We know what's in it.. and the American public still doesn't like it!

(06-28-2012 10:23 AM)RobertN Wrote:  I am pretty sure most were HOPING there would be no new taxes or increases but if anyone actually believed it would happen that way is living in denial of reality.

People vote on the "promises" made by Politicians (even if they know they're dubious at best, lies at worse)

(06-28-2012 10:22 AM)AtlanticLeague Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 10:01 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Agree.
Now Romney and the republicans will have to come up with an alternative to replace it with. French health care is out there waiting. And that could be a winner for them. As it stands now, this is just a race between two losers.

I have a hard time picturing any GOP member saying, "Let's do what the French did!"

At least, not until they have no other choice. Which may be where they are now. At least, I hope somebody is there.

Why would they ever believe Romney would let Obamacare be repealed? Come on. He'll blame it on the Dems, but he would never let that happen. It's basically his law at the federal level.

(06-28-2012 10:49 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote:  Why would they ever believe Romney would let Obamacare be repealed? Come on. He'll blame it on the Dems, but he would never let that happen. It's basically his law at the federal level.

He will sign a repeal if it makes it to his desk. If he doesn't he won't even get the nomination for a second term.

(06-28-2012 10:06 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Repeal also just became easier in the Senate. Now that it has been proven a tax it only takes 51 votes to repeal it.

Are you sure? I see a big fight if out took 60 to pass but only 51 to repeal. Reid becomes an obstacle.

(06-28-2012 11:28 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 10:06 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Repeal also just became easier in the Senate. Now that it has been proven a tax it only takes 51 votes to repeal it.

Are you sure? I see a big fight if out took 60 to pass but only 51 to repeal. Reid becomes an obstacle.

Yep. Taxes only need simple majority.

(06-28-2012 11:33 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 11:28 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 10:06 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Repeal also just became easier in the Senate. Now that it has been proven a tax it only takes 51 votes to repeal it.

Are you sure? I see a big fight if out took 60 to pass but only 51 to repeal. Reid becomes an obstacle.

Yep. Taxes only need simple majority.

So if they called it a tax from jump, they only need 51. They can make us buy anything with 51 votes. We're screwed.

Obamatax