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TroyFootball05 Offline
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TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
Food For Thought:

It's no question that the consensus top four teams going into 2012 are ASU, UL, WKU, and FIU, in no particular order. These just happen to be the Top 4 sunbelt teams from last season. When have you ever known the top 4 to in one season to repeat as the top 4 the very next season? Or what about the consensus #1? Rarely, if ever.

Arkansas State and Louisiana

I'll agree those teams seem to be very good going into 2012. But lets take a closer look: The consensus top 2 in ASU, and UL, are the two teams in the sunbelt with the least amount of experience in terms of returning starters. Experience might not be everything in college football, but it means a lot. I'm not saying these teams won't win it all, but it's not set in stone. Both have huge defensive question marks. They bring in "better, more athletic talent" as the way overused saying goes. Doesn't someone from every team say that every year? The problem is it takes time to learn the systems and get experience. And that lack of returning continuity may seal the fate for these teams. Malzhan might not be the head coach everyone thinks, and Louisiana might have a tough time reproducing the emotion from their breakout season. These teams are capable of getting a conference championship, but they do have holes.

FIU and Western Kentucky

These are the other two widely considered for the conference title. The problem is, both these teams lose the best player they've probably ever had in T.Y. Hilton and Bobby Rainey. There is plenty of offensive talent on FIU's roster, so there's a good chance they might not miss him much, but will there be a player to replace Bobby Rainey? How about this, can we say it's the defenses they had that won them games? Probably, and both bring back experience here. Right now, I'd put these two above ASU and UL.

Other things to consider. Think back to FAU's 2007 conference championship. They won the sunbelt, had a whopping 20 starters back for 2008, and went 6-6 in the regular season. They were 3rd or something ridiculous in turnovers in 2007 and 117th in 2008, just as Phil Steele had predicted. (Troy is 114th this year and this is a big reason why Troy will take a giant step forward - 80% of teams with double digit TOs improve their record the next year. Troy left a lot of points on the board by fumbling in the redzone many times.)

MTSU went 10-3 in 2009, and was proclaimed king of football. They barely went 6-6 the next season with a win over FIU in the season finale. So what's my point? Don't assume because a team was on fire one year, they will on fire the next.

As with FAU and MTSU, teams that make massive jumps in one year usually go back the other direction the very next year. For instance, teams that go 2-10ish most of the time and then go 8-4 will usually, but not always, go back where they came from. And teams that usually have 8-12 win seasons and go and have a 2-4 win season, will usually, but not always, go right back up the next year (Phil Steele's research).

Back on Arkansas State and UL. Both teams had some close wins. Teams that have multiple close wins tend to underachieve the next season (FAU 2007/2008). (Its the kiss of death to win close games). Teams that have multiple close losses, tend to do better the next season (also phil steele).

All I'm saying is its safe to bet on these frontrunners, but don't be surprised if the top four isn't who you thinkit will be. I wanted to shed some light on some big holes many people are overlooking.

On Troy: I think Troy will go 7-5 or better. I have some compelling evidence many of you would like to hear if anyone's interested, but I won't take up anymore space in this post. Just ask.

Overall thoughts? I have plenty more to say, but I didn't want to post a wall of text that no one wanted to read.
06-21-2012 01:50 PM
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Fanof49ASU Offline
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
ASU did have 2 close wins.
One of them, FAU, we won't play this year. The other, WKU, is coming to Jonesboro. :)
06-21-2012 02:03 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
I was looking at the schedule yesterday and there are only 2 games that I think are easy wins for stAte. They could potentially lose any of the others. I don't think any team in the league is ever a safe bet to win it. I think stAte SHOULD win their 6 home games but it's not a given. The road conference games are very tough.

Close wins. Arkansas State had some close wins early in the conference schedule. During the second half of the season we beat our conference foes pretty handily. A big reason was that with Butterfield out for the year we had absolutely no backup QB experience. Freeze was very hesitant to let Aplin play his game until after the ULM game. If he had let Aplin run the ball in the first half of the season then we most likely beat Illinois.

The stAte offense should be better this year. Even without Dyer being ruled eligible, we should have our best RBs from last year (Jackson and Thornton) healthy this year. The recent article about Allen Muse gives you an idea of what he was going through last year and why he should return this year and produce like 2010. Stockemer is an NFL guy and Jarboe has a lot of skill. There are some very solid guys looking to take over Frampton's spot as well. The OL will return several with starting experience and one of the best OL classes in the conference.

Yes, stAte lost some key defenders. Three of them were NFL caliber guys. That is hard to replace. The misleading stat I see is that we return 3 starters. That is not correct. We bring back 2 safeties, 3 LBs, 2 DTs and 1 CB who started games last year. DE is the big question mark and that is key.

I would be thrilled with 7 or 8 wins this year.

I think anyone outside of probably USA and FAU could win the league this year.
06-21-2012 02:03 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 02:03 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  ASU did have 2 close wins.
One of them, FAU, we won't play this year. The other, WKU, is coming to Jonesboro. :)
You are thinking of ULM, not FAU. After close wins against WKU and ULM on the road ASU had no conference team come closer than 9 points.
06-21-2012 02:05 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 02:05 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:03 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  ASU did have 2 close wins.
One of them, FAU, we won't play this year. The other, WKU, is coming to Jonesboro. :)
You are thinking of ULM, not FAU. After close wins against WKU and ULM on the road ASU had no conference team come closer than 9 points.

You are correct. My bad.
Both close games are coming back to Jonesboro.
06-21-2012 02:08 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:05 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:03 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  ASU did have 2 close wins.
One of them, FAU, we won't play this year. The other, WKU, is coming to Jonesboro. :)
You are thinking of ULM, not FAU. After close wins against WKU and ULM on the road ASU had no conference team come closer than 9 points.

You are correct. My bad.
Both close games are coming back to Jonesboro.
Yep. Playing ULL, Troy and FIU on the road is scary and UNT won't be easy.
06-21-2012 02:08 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:05 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:03 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  ASU did have 2 close wins.
One of them, FAU, we won't play this year. The other, WKU, is coming to Jonesboro. :)
You are thinking of ULM, not FAU. After close wins against WKU and ULM on the road ASU had no conference team come closer than 9 points.

You are correct. My bad.
Both close games are coming back to Jonesboro.
Yep. Playing ULL, Troy and FIU on the road is scary and UNT won't be easy.

I remember when you guys beat us in 06 at our place. What's ASU's road record in the sunbelt?
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2012 02:24 PM by TroyFootball05.)
06-21-2012 02:23 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 02:23 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:05 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:03 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  ASU did have 2 close wins.
One of them, FAU, we won't play this year. The other, WKU, is coming to Jonesboro. :)
You are thinking of ULM, not FAU. After close wins against WKU and ULM on the road ASU had no conference team come closer than 9 points.

You are correct. My bad.
Both close games are coming back to Jonesboro.
Yep. Playing ULL, Troy and FIU on the road is scary and UNT won't be easy.

I remember when you guys beat us in 06 at our place. What's ASU's road record in the sunbelt?
Prior to last year it wasn't good. I recall wins over you guys, ULM, FIU and UNT but that's it and I think UNT was the only repeat offender under Roberts.
06-21-2012 02:30 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 02:30 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:23 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:08 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 02:05 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  You are thinking of ULM, not FAU. After close wins against WKU and ULM on the road ASU had no conference team come closer than 9 points.

You are correct. My bad.
Both close games are coming back to Jonesboro.
Yep. Playing ULL, Troy and FIU on the road is scary and UNT won't be easy.

I remember when you guys beat us in 06 at our place. What's ASU's road record in the sunbelt?
Prior to last year it wasn't good. I recall wins over you guys, ULM, FIU and UNT but that's it and I think UNT was the only repeat offender under Roberts.

It seem like forever since UNT has beaten ASU. I don't think this will be our year either.
06-21-2012 03:04 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 03:04 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  It seem like forever since UNT has beaten ASU. I don't think this will be our year either.

Wow....that slipped up on me. I didn't realize it's been 7 straight years.

In looking at our series, the wins/loses always come in groups.
06-21-2012 03:17 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 01:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Food For Thought:

It's no question that the consensus top four teams going into 2012 are ASU, UL, WKU, and FIU, in no particular order. These just happen to be the Top 4 sunbelt teams from last season. When have you ever known the top 4 to in one season to repeat as the top 4 the very next season? Or what about the consensus #1? Rarely, if ever.

Arkansas State and Louisiana

I'll agree those teams seem to be very good going into 2012. But lets take a closer look: The consensus top 2 in ASU, and UL, are the two teams in the sunbelt with the least amount of experience in terms of returning starters. Experience might not be everything in college football, but it means a lot. I'm not saying these teams won't win it all, but it's not set in stone. Both have huge defensive question marks. They bring in "better, more athletic talent" as the way overused saying goes. Doesn't someone from every team say that every year? The problem is it takes time to learn the systems and get experience. And that lack of returning continuity may seal the fate for these teams. Malzhan might not be the head coach everyone thinks, and Louisiana might have a tough time reproducing the emotion from their breakout season. These teams are capable of getting a conference championship, but they do have holes.

FIU and Western Kentucky

These are the other two widely considered for the conference title. The problem is, both these teams lose the best player they've probably ever had in T.Y. Hilton and Bobby Rainey. There is plenty of offensive talent on FIU's roster, so there's a good chance they might not miss him much, but will there be a player to replace Bobby Rainey? How about this, can we say it's the defenses they had that won them games? Probably, and both bring back experience here. Right now, I'd put these two above ASU and UL.

Other things to consider. Think back to FAU's 2007 conference championship. They won the sunbelt, had a whopping 20 starters back for 2008, and went 6-6 in the regular season. They were 3rd or something ridiculous in turnovers in 2007 and 117th in 2008, just as Phil Steele had predicted. (Troy is 114th this year and this is a big reason why Troy will take a giant step forward - 80% of teams with double digit TOs improve their record the next year. Troy left a lot of points on the board by fumbling in the redzone many times.)

MTSU went 10-3 in 2009, and was proclaimed king of football. They barely went 6-6 the next season with a win over FIU in the season finale. So what's my point? Don't assume because a team was on fire one year, they will on fire the next.

As with FAU and MTSU, teams that make massive jumps in one year usually go back the other direction the very next year. For instance, teams that go 2-10ish most of the time and then go 8-4 will usually, but not always, go back where they came from. And teams that usually have 8-12 win seasons and go and have a 2-4 win season, will usually, but not always, go right back up the next year (Phil Steele's research).

Back on Arkansas State and UL. Both teams had some close wins. Teams that have multiple close wins tend to underachieve the next season (FAU 2007/2008). (Its the kiss of death to win close games). Teams that have multiple close losses, tend to do better the next season (also phil steele).

All I'm saying is its safe to bet on these frontrunners, but don't be surprised if the top four isn't who you thinkit will be. I wanted to shed some light on some big holes many people are overlooking.

On Troy: I think Troy will go 7-5 or better. I have some compelling evidence many of you would like to hear if anyone's interested, but I won't take up anymore space in this post. Just ask.

Overall thoughts? I have plenty more to say, but I didn't want to post a wall of text that no one wanted to read.

My belief that FIU, ULL, ASU, and WKU will be strong this season, has more to do with the quality of coaching those universities now have. FIU, ULL, and WKU have great coaching, and quality recruits every year. ASU lost its coach, but not the quality of coaching, or recruiting. The Belt has never seen its top four teams repeat, but the conference has never seen so many programs with quality coaching either. If these four do manage to repeat, a few coaches in the Sun Belt will probably be on the hot-seat.
06-21-2012 03:17 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 01:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  On Troy: I think Troy will go 7-5 or better. I have some compelling evidence many of you would like to hear if anyone's interested, but I won't take up anymore space in this post. Just ask.

I'm curious to know.
06-21-2012 03:24 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
Let's look at the close win theory.

Let's run through some league champs and their close games and what happened the next year. I'm defining close win as 8 points or less because one possession could have potentially changed the outcome or forced OT. Firs the close game then next year's rematch

MTSU 2006
1 point at home over FIU, wiped them at home (schedule cycle changed)

Troy 2006
5 points at ULM, Troy wins easily at home
8 points at home vs. UNT, Troy wins easily at home the next year (schedule cycle changed)
7 points at FAU, Troy loses by 6 at home
7 points over ASU at home, wipes ASU in Jonesboro
1 point at MTSU, handles MTSU easily at home

FAU 2007
7 points at Louisiana, 11 at home
3 points at home vs. ArkSt lost by 14 at ArkSt
6 points at Troy lost by 13 at home

Troy 2007
4 pts at WKU, 10 pts at home

Troy 2008
None

Troy 2009
3 points at ArkSt, 7 points at home

Troy 2010
7 points at home over ArkSt lost by 31 on the road
7 at home over the Cajuns lost by 14 on the road
6 points over UNT on the road lost by 5 on the road

FIU 2010
7 over WKU at home lost by 1 on the road
7 over ULM at home won by 11 on the road
7 over ArkSt at home lost by 18 on the road

Arkansas State 2011
4 over WKU on the road ???
5 over ULM on the road ???

Defending champions are 9-8 in rematches of close games won inthe championship season.

BUT the defending champs are 7-2 in close game rematches when the rematch occurs at the champs home field and are 2-6 when the rematch is at the opponents home stadium.

Obviously I didn't consider the other spots in the standings in that long-term analysis but WKU won three close games, two of those on the road (at MTSU and ULM, and home against FIU), the Cajuns won 3 close ones two of those at home (ULM and FAU) and one road (at FIU), FIU won one close game and it was at Troy.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2012 03:44 PM by arkstfan.)
06-21-2012 03:43 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 03:17 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  My belief that FIU, ULL, ASU, and WKU will be strong this season, has more to do with the quality of coaching those universities now have. FIU, ULL, and WKU have great coaching, and quality recruits every year. ASU lost its coach, but not the quality of coaching, or recruiting. The Belt has never seen its top four teams repeat, but the conference has never seen so many programs with quality coaching either. If these four do manage to repeat, a few coaches in the Sun Belt will probably be on the hot-seat.

More analysis!!!!
Season, record, champion, next season Sun Belt finish
2001
5-7 UNT next year 8-5(1)
8-3 MTSU 4-8 (4)

2002
8-5 UNT 9-4(1)

2003
9-4 UNT 7-5(1)

2004
7-5 UNT 2-9(8)

2005
6-6 Ark St 6-6(3)
6-5 Louisiana 6-6 (5)
5-6 ULM 4-8 (5)

2006
8-5 Troy 8-4(1)
7-6 MTSU 5-7 (3)

2007
8-4 Troy 8-5(1)
8-5 FAU 7-6 (3)

2008
8-5 Troy 9-4(1)

2009
9-4 Troy 8-5(1)

2010
8-5 Troy 3-9 (7)
7-6 FIU 8-5 (4)

Of the past 16 champions, there have only been three times when a defending champion finished more than 2 games worse in the overall win column than the year before.

2002 MTSU went down four games
2005 UNT went down five games
2010 Troy went down five games
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2012 04:06 PM by arkstfan.)
06-21-2012 04:05 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
To back up my statements about FIU and WKU, here is an NCAA Experience Chart. WKU (16) and FIU (18) lead the pack.

http://philsteele.com/Blogs/2012/June12/DBJune7.html
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2012 07:23 PM by TroyFootball05.)
06-21-2012 07:04 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 03:43 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Let's look at the close win theory.

Let's run through some league champs and their close games and what happened the next year. I'm defining close win as 8 points or less because one possession could have potentially changed the outcome or forced OT. Firs the close game then next year's rematch.

Defending champions are 9-8 in rematches of close games won inthe championship season.

BUT the defending champs are 7-2 in close game rematches when the rematch occurs at the champs home field and are 2-6 when the rematch is at the opponents home stadium.

Obviously I didn't consider the other spots in the standings in that long-term analysis but WKU won three close games, two of those on the road (at MTSU and ULM, and home against FIU), the Cajuns won 3 close ones two of those at home (ULM and FAU) and one road (at FIU), FIU won one close game and it was at Troy.

The close win theory does not suggest that a team with a close loss will avenge that loss against the same team, but rather suggests that a team with multiple close losses will improve its record, and that a team with multiple close wins will have a worse record the following year.

(06-21-2012 04:05 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Of the past 16 champions, there have only been three times when a defending champion finished more than 2 games worse in the overall win column than the year before.

2002 MTSU went down four games
2005 UNT went down five games
2010 Troy went down five games

Phil Steele's research...don't shoot the messenger, heh. It may be like that in the sunbelt, but it was a 78% or some odd chance that a team that made a big jump in either direction, would fall back to where it usually lies the following year.
It's in his magazine somewhere, and here actually. Arkansas State leads the Bear Market teams (going down), and Middle Tennessee leads the Bull Market Teams (going up). Troy is 2nd on the going up list, behind our beloved blue hens.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2012 07:17 PM by TroyFootball05.)
06-21-2012 07:11 PM
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 01:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Food For Thought:

It's no question that the consensus top four teams going into 2012 are ASU, UL, WKU, and FIU, in no particular order. These just happen to be the Top 4 sunbelt teams from last season. When have you ever known the top 4 to in one season to repeat as the top 4 the very next season? Or what about the consensus #1? Rarely, if ever.

Arkansas State and Louisiana

I'll agree those teams seem to be very good going into 2012. But lets take a closer look: The consensus top 2 in ASU, and UL, are the two teams in the sunbelt with the least amount of experience in terms of returning starters. Experience might not be everything in college football, but it means a lot. I'm not saying these teams won't win it all, but it's not set in stone. Both have huge defensive question marks. They bring in "better, more athletic talent" as the way overused saying goes. Doesn't someone from every team say that every year? The problem is it takes time to learn the systems and get experience. And that lack of returning continuity may seal the fate for these teams. Malzhan might not be the head coach everyone thinks, and Louisiana might have a tough time reproducing the emotion from their breakout season. These teams are capable of getting a conference championship, but they do have holes.

Let's examine your breakdowns a little closer. Both ASU and UL have questions marks on defense, but none on offense. In fact, both return the two best WR cores and QB's in the Sun Belt by production. UL lost only one starter on the OL, moving OT Bates inside actually improving the quality of the OL. Ledarious Green can not be replaced, but if you at look his production last season most of it was done in 6 games due to his injuries so several athletes filled in just fine. Both programs had really young RB's last season, so you can expect the running games to be improved on both teams. I don't see any defenses in the Sun Belt shutting either offenses completely down for four quarters.

The questions do remain on the defensive side of the football with both programs filling in JC or D1 transfers. Talent wise both may be deeper, but the talent needs to jell and that will take some time and tough games.

UL returns an all conferenece and pro candidate PK/P in Brett Baer, our special teams will be very good. ASU is solid as well. Finally, to suggest Hudspeth got by on emotion is to ignore his career record at every level. He has a body of work from high school, DII, UL and a bowl win in his first year as an FBS coach that suggest he can coach. Emotion doesn't carry for four quarters at any level. </b>

[b]FIU and Western Kentucky


These are the other two widely considered for the conference title. The problem is, both these teams lose the best player they've probably ever had in T.Y. Hilton and Bobby Rainey. There is plenty of offensive talent on FIU's roster, so there's a good chance they might not miss him much, but will there be a player to replace Bobby Rainey? How about this, can we say it's the defenses they had that won them games? Probably, and both bring back experience here. Right now, I'd put these two above ASU and UL.

<b> I have no problem with either being picked over ASU and UL right now. FIU has the most talent returning on both sides of the ball, but will be rolling out a young QB. His performance will be up and down as a first year starter and the defense will have to carry the Panthers at time because of conservative play calling.

WKU returns an outstanding front 7 on defense, big OL, very good TE and a experinced QB in Jakes. You don't just replace backs like Rainey, Fenroy or Dunbar. Rainey accounted for over 2,000 yards of offense and allowed WKU to wear defenses down. That is a huge whole and Jakes will have to step up more this season. Can Jakes carry more of a load without a Rainey in the backfield? That is a huge question. </b>

Other things to consider. Think back to FAU's 2007 conference championship. They won the sunbelt, had a whopping 20 starters back for 2008, and went 6-6 in the regular season. They were 3rd or something ridiculous in turnovers in 2007 and 117th in 2008, just as Phil Steele had predicted. (Troy is 114th this year and this is a big reason why Troy will take a giant step forward - 80% of teams with double digit TOs improve their record the next year. Troy left a lot of points on the board by fumbling in the redzone many times.)

Good points, but what kind of schedule did FAU play against the next season? Turnovers were a huge part as you pointed out as well. Troy out of conference games are Miss. St, UAB, Navy and Tenneessee. UAB will be tough at their home, but not impossible. Troy will be underdogs in the other three games, more then likely will be losses. If Troy doesn't beat UAB or UL, they could very well travel to North Texas at 0-3, a team that beat you at home last season. Let me add that Troy signed 15 or more JC transfers, so like ASU and UL they will have to adjust to FBS football and learn to play in a system together. All programs have questions.

MTSU went 10-3 in 2009, and was proclaimed king of football. They barely went 6-6 the next season with a win over FIU in the season finale. So what's my point? Don't assume because a team was on fire one year, they will on fire the next.

I wouldn't assume anything, because winnig on the road is very hard. But Troy had been very consistent until last season, so you believe your program the only one capable of having a stretch of winning seasons in the Sun Belt? We will find out about ASU and UL this year.

As with FAU and MTSU, teams that make massive jumps in one year usually go back the other direction the very next year. For instance, teams that go 2-10ish most of the time and then go 8-4 will usually, but not always, go back where they came from. And teams that usually have 8-12 win seasons and go and have a 2-4 win season, will usually, but not always, go right back up the next year (Phil Steele's research).

Its hard for me to believe either program will be as bad as last season. When teams come off of losing seasons its important to get that first win under their belt to build confidence. That in my mind will decide how improved each program will be in the win or loss column. I don't know enough about either at this point to make predictions.

Back on Arkansas State and UL. Both teams had some close wins. Teams that have multiple close wins tend to underachieve the next season (FAU 2007/2008). (Its the kiss of death to win close games). Teams that have multiple close losses, tend to do better the next season (also phil steele).

Read that from Phil Steel, in some case it is true, but too many scenarios play into that statement, and he offered no evidence to support his claim. Would I predict UL would score 6 touchdowns by the defense again? No...Is the offense capable of scoring 6 more TD's this season? Yes, because Gautier didn't become the full time starter until the fourth game of the season in 2011.

All I'm saying is its safe to bet on these frontrunners, but don't be surprised if the top four isn't who you thinkit will be. I wanted to shed some light on some big holes many people are overlooking.

I wouldn't be surprised because that has been the case more often then not in the Sun Belt. But not for the same reasons you have stated in your breakdown.

On Troy: I think Troy will go 7-5 or better. I have some compelling evidence many of you would like to hear if anyone's interested, but I won't take up anymore space in this post. Just ask.

I addressed this earlier in my respone, but should Troy begin the season 1-4, it will be tough. I would like to look at this in early August before I make any predictions on records.

Overall thoughts? I have plenty more to say, but I didn't want to post a wall of text that no one wanted to read.

Overall, not a bad breakdown. I'm not ready to make predictions at this point because we don't know who will make it on campus and who will not until August. I pointed out several areas where I disagree with you and laid out my argument. You suggested that UL and ASU have questions, both went with JCs and transfers to fill the gaps. I didn't disagree with that statement. On the other hand, Troy signs 15 to 20 JC transfers but you are confident their questions aren't as significant. Any program that signed that many JC's has major questions.

Also, you suggested that UL will struggle because they played with alot of emotion last season that cannot be duplicated this year. I stated emotion cannot be sustained for four quarters at any level and in the fourth quarter it comes down to game management and coaching. UL won four games in the fourth quarter, including a bowl victory. That suggest to me that Hudpseth puts his team in position to win the game in the fourth quarter and can coach. His record at every level suggest the same. Lucky coaches don't sustain that kind of winning record with just emotion.
06-21-2012 07:46 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 07:46 PM)CrazyCajun Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 01:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Food For Thought:

It's no question that the consensus top four teams going into 2012 are ASU, UL, WKU, and FIU, in no particular order. These just happen to be the Top 4 sunbelt teams from last season. When have you ever known the top 4 to in one season to repeat as the top 4 the very next season? Or what about the consensus #1? Rarely, if ever.

Arkansas State and Louisiana

I'll agree those teams seem to be very good going into 2012. But lets take a closer look: The consensus top 2 in ASU, and UL, are the two teams in the sunbelt with the least amount of experience in terms of returning starters. Experience might not be everything in college football, but it means a lot. I'm not saying these teams won't win it all, but it's not set in stone. Both have huge defensive question marks. They bring in "better, more athletic talent" as the way overused saying goes. Doesn't someone from every team say that every year? The problem is it takes time to learn the systems and get experience. And that lack of returning continuity may seal the fate for these teams. Malzhan might not be the head coach everyone thinks, and Louisiana might have a tough time reproducing the emotion from their breakout season. These teams are capable of getting a conference championship, but they do have holes.

Let's examine your breakdowns a little closer. Both ASU and UL have questions marks on defense, but none on offense. In fact, both return the two best WR cores and QB's in the Sun Belt by production. UL lost only one starter on the OL, moving OT Bates inside actually improving the quality of the OL. Ledarious Green can not be replaced, but if you at look his production last season most of it was done in 6 games due to his injuries so several athletes filled in just fine. Both programs had really young RB's last season, so you can expect the running games to be improved on both teams. I don't see any defenses in the Sun Belt shutting either offenses completely down for four quarters.

The questions do remain on the defensive side of the football with both programs filling in JC or D1 transfers. Talent wise both may be deeper, but the talent needs to jell and that will take some time and tough games.

UL returns an all conferenece and pro candidate PK/P in Brett Baer, our special teams will be very good. ASU is solid as well. Finally, to suggest Hudspeth got by on emotion is to ignore his career record at every level. He has a body of work from high school, DII, UL and a bowl win in his first year as an FBS coach that suggest he can coach. Emotion doesn't carry for four quarters at any level. </b>

[b]FIU and Western Kentucky


These are the other two widely considered for the conference title. The problem is, both these teams lose the best player they've probably ever had in T.Y. Hilton and Bobby Rainey. There is plenty of offensive talent on FIU's roster, so there's a good chance they might not miss him much, but will there be a player to replace Bobby Rainey? How about this, can we say it's the defenses they had that won them games? Probably, and both bring back experience here. Right now, I'd put these two above ASU and UL.

<b> I have no problem with either being picked over ASU and UL right now. FIU has the most talent returning on both sides of the ball, but will be rolling out a young QB. His performance will be up and down as a first year starter and the defense will have to carry the Panthers at time because of conservative play calling.

WKU returns an outstanding front 7 on defense, big OL, very good TE and a experinced QB in Jakes. You don't just replace backs like Rainey, Fenroy or Dunbar. Rainey accounted for over 2,000 yards of offense and allowed WKU to wear defenses down. That is a huge whole and Jakes will have to step up more this season. Can Jakes carry more of a load without a Rainey in the backfield? That is a huge question. </b>

Other things to consider. Think back to FAU's 2007 conference championship. They won the sunbelt, had a whopping 20 starters back for 2008, and went 6-6 in the regular season. They were 3rd or something ridiculous in turnovers in 2007 and 117th in 2008, just as Phil Steele had predicted. (Troy is 114th this year and this is a big reason why Troy will take a giant step forward - 80% of teams with double digit TOs improve their record the next year. Troy left a lot of points on the board by fumbling in the redzone many times.)

Good points, but what kind of schedule did FAU play against the next season? Turnovers were a huge part as you pointed out as well. Troy out of conference games are Miss. St, UAB, Navy and Tenneessee. UAB will be tough at their home, but not impossible. Troy will be underdogs in the other three games, more then likely will be losses. If Troy doesn't beat UAB or UL, they could very well travel to North Texas at 0-3, a team that beat you at home last season. Let me add that Troy signed 15 or more JC transfers, so like ASU and UL they will have to adjust to FBS football and learn to play in a system together. All programs have questions.

MTSU went 10-3 in 2009, and was proclaimed king of football. They barely went 6-6 the next season with a win over FIU in the season finale. So what's my point? Don't assume because a team was on fire one year, they will on fire the next.

I wouldn't assume anything, because winnig on the road is very hard. But Troy had been very consistent until last season, so you believe your program the only one capable of having a stretch of winning seasons in the Sun Belt? We will find out about ASU and UL this year.

As with FAU and MTSU, teams that make massive jumps in one year usually go back the other direction the very next year. For instance, teams that go 2-10ish most of the time and then go 8-4 will usually, but not always, go back where they came from. And teams that usually have 8-12 win seasons and go and have a 2-4 win season, will usually, but not always, go right back up the next year (Phil Steele's research).

Its hard for me to believe either program will be as bad as last season. When teams come off of losing seasons its important to get that first win under their belt to build confidence. That in my mind will decide how improved each program will be in the win or loss column. I don't know enough about either at this point to make predictions.

Back on Arkansas State and UL. Both teams had some close wins. Teams that have multiple close wins tend to underachieve the next season (FAU 2007/2008). (Its the kiss of death to win close games). Teams that have multiple close losses, tend to do better the next season (also phil steele).

Read that from Phil Steel, in some case it is true, but too many scenarios play into that statement, and he offered no evidence to support his claim. Would I predict UL would score 6 touchdowns by the defense again? No...Is the offense capable of scoring 6 more TD's this season? Yes, because Gautier didn't become the full time starter until the fourth game of the season in 2011.

All I'm saying is its safe to bet on these frontrunners, but don't be surprised if the top four isn't who you thinkit will be. I wanted to shed some light on some big holes many people are overlooking.

I wouldn't be surprised because that has been the case more often then not in the Sun Belt. But not for the same reasons you have stated in your breakdown.

On Troy: I think Troy will go 7-5 or better. I have some compelling evidence many of you would like to hear if anyone's interested, but I won't take up anymore space in this post. Just ask.

I addressed this earlier in my respone, but should Troy begin the season 1-4, it will be tough. I would like to look at this in early August before I make any predictions on records.

Overall thoughts? I have plenty more to say, but I didn't want to post a wall of text that no one wanted to read.

Overall, not a bad breakdown. I'm not ready to make predictions at this point because we don't know who will make it on campus and who will not until August. I pointed out several areas where I disagree with you and laid out my argument. You suggested that UL and ASU have questions, both went with JCs and transfers to fill the gaps. I didn't disagree with that statement. On the other hand, Troy signs 15 to 20 JC transfers but you are confident their questions aren't as significant. Any program that signed that many JC's has major questions.

Also, you suggested that UL will struggle because they played with alot of emotion last season that cannot be duplicated this year. I stated emotion cannot be sustained for four quarters at any level and in the fourth quarter it comes down to game management and coaching. UL won four games in the fourth quarter, including a bowl victory. That suggest to me that Hudpseth puts his team in position to win the game in the fourth quarter and can coach. His record at every level suggest the same. Lucky coaches don't sustain that kind of winning record with just emotion.

All good points. As for JUCO's, I'm not making a whole lot of claims about how good our defense will be. I like yourself, expect the offense to carry the team. Your team made it to 9 wins with the 84th ranked defense in the country. There will be gelling issues at first. Really though, the 7-5 or better is based mostly on:

1. The Schedule

6 home games (only five for the last ten years, 45-8 at home), only two road games in a row (also a first, usually three road games sometimes four in a row, this will keep us fresh), all four of the "top 4" at home (45-8 at home, 4th best in the US home record, played all four on the road last year). Traveling to ULM is always a loss, Troy has never won there. We don't play them this year, we play south instead (did not have that luxury last season). A win over UL is very likely (Troy is 24-0 in home openers, UL is 0-21 in road openers). Near middle of the season bye week (did not have a true bye week at all last year).

2. Statistically Speaking

Phil Steele's "going up" stats: #2 in US on bull market list, turnovers equal turnaround (Troy is 114th), 5th in US in returning offensive yards + much improved offensive line + Chip Reeves and Jamel Johnson big time wrs from 2010. (34.4% in 2011 to 95.6% returning yards for 2012, 5th in the US). Phil also says that teams that make big jumps in either direction, tend to go back the other way the following season (Five 8 win+ seasons and now one 3-9 season should reap better results, and coupled with Blakeney's no back to back losing seasons, this is a safe bet.)

3. Coaching Consistency vs Coaching Talent

The one thing people aren't realizing is that while the top 4 have great head coaches, so does Troy. But you can't buy consistency. He's been here 22 years, none of the top 4 even come close. Great coaches, but Troy has program consistency on its side. That can't be overstated.

4. Troy Shines In The Underdog Role

The targets have shifted to Arkansas State and UL. We don't have as big of a target as we have had the last several years. This will allow us to fly under the radar. Most people have us pegged at 7th, and I feel like players and coaches think similarly and might believe that Troy has fallen off. There won't be as big of a sense of urgency to defeat Troy as it has in previous years. The focus is on UL, ASU, and probably FIU (My pick to win the conference).

Again, I'm not saying Troy will win the sunbelt, just that we will be 7-5 or better. The schedule alone is enough to merit a few more wins, and with our team being at least a little better, we should cruise to 7 wins no problem. Hope that answers your question Cardinal.
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2012 06:57 AM by TroyFootball05.)
06-21-2012 08:17 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 07:46 PM)CrazyCajun Wrote:  In fact, both return the two best WR cores and QB's in the Sun Belt by production.

Actually, Arkansas State and Troy return the two best wide receiver corps in the sunbelt by production, and Arkansas State leads only by two yards per game:

16. Arkansas State - 293 yards per game.
17. Troy - 291 yards per game
29. Louisiana - 269 yards per game.

And with troy adding back two monster receivers from 2010, and 97% of the wide receiver production from 2011, Troy will probably have the best wr production in the belt. Troys offensive line is going to be much better this year and lets not forget our quarterback Corey Robinson broke a ton of troy and New Orleans bowl records as a freshman. The oline was the problem last year and since they've improved, expect to see the old Robinson and running backs again.
06-22-2012 05:30 PM
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CrazyCajun Offline
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Post: #20
RE: TroyFootball05's Thoughts on 2012
(06-21-2012 08:17 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 07:46 PM)CrazyCajun Wrote:  
(06-21-2012 01:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Food For Thought:

It's no question that the consensus top four teams going into 2012 are ASU, UL, WKU, and FIU, in no particular order. These just happen to be the Top 4 sunbelt teams from last season. When have you ever known the top 4 to in one season to repeat as the top 4 the very next season? Or what about the consensus #1? Rarely, if ever.

Arkansas State and Louisiana

I'll agree those teams seem to be very good going into 2012. But lets take a closer look: The consensus top 2 in ASU, and UL, are the two teams in the sunbelt with the least amount of experience in terms of returning starters. Experience might not be everything in college football, but it means a lot. I'm not saying these teams won't win it all, but it's not set in stone. Both have huge defensive question marks. They bring in "better, more athletic talent" as the way overused saying goes. Doesn't someone from every team say that every year? The problem is it takes time to learn the systems and get experience. And that lack of returning continuity may seal the fate for these teams. Malzhan might not be the head coach everyone thinks, and Louisiana might have a tough time reproducing the emotion from their breakout season. These teams are capable of getting a conference championship, but they do have holes.

Let's examine your breakdowns a little closer. Both ASU and UL have questions marks on defense, but none on offense. In fact, both return the two best WR cores and QB's in the Sun Belt by production. UL lost only one starter on the OL, moving OT Bates inside actually improving the quality of the OL. Ledarious Green can not be replaced, but if you at look his production last season most of it was done in 6 games due to his injuries so several athletes filled in just fine. Both programs had really young RB's last season, so you can expect the running games to be improved on both teams. I don't see any defenses in the Sun Belt shutting either offenses completely down for four quarters.

The questions do remain on the defensive side of the football with both programs filling in JC or D1 transfers. Talent wise both may be deeper, but the talent needs to jell and that will take some time and tough games.

UL returns an all conferenece and pro candidate PK/P in Brett Baer, our special teams will be very good. ASU is solid as well. Finally, to suggest Hudspeth got by on emotion is to ignore his career record at every level. He has a body of work from high school, DII, UL and a bowl win in his first year as an FBS coach that suggest he can coach. Emotion doesn't carry for four quarters at any level. </b>

[b]FIU and Western Kentucky


These are the other two widely considered for the conference title. The problem is, both these teams lose the best player they've probably ever had in T.Y. Hilton and Bobby Rainey. There is plenty of offensive talent on FIU's roster, so there's a good chance they might not miss him much, but will there be a player to replace Bobby Rainey? How about this, can we say it's the defenses they had that won them games? Probably, and both bring back experience here. Right now, I'd put these two above ASU and UL.

<b> I have no problem with either being picked over ASU and UL right now. FIU has the most talent returning on both sides of the ball, but will be rolling out a young QB. His performance will be up and down as a first year starter and the defense will have to carry the Panthers at time because of conservative play calling.

WKU returns an outstanding front 7 on defense, big OL, very good TE and a experinced QB in Jakes. You don't just replace backs like Rainey, Fenroy or Dunbar. Rainey accounted for over 2,000 yards of offense and allowed WKU to wear defenses down. That is a huge whole and Jakes will have to step up more this season. Can Jakes carry more of a load without a Rainey in the backfield? That is a huge question. </b>

Other things to consider. Think back to FAU's 2007 conference championship. They won the sunbelt, had a whopping 20 starters back for 2008, and went 6-6 in the regular season. They were 3rd or something ridiculous in turnovers in 2007 and 117th in 2008, just as Phil Steele had predicted. (Troy is 114th this year and this is a big reason why Troy will take a giant step forward - 80% of teams with double digit TOs improve their record the next year. Troy left a lot of points on the board by fumbling in the redzone many times.)

Good points, but what kind of schedule did FAU play against the next season? Turnovers were a huge part as you pointed out as well. Troy out of conference games are Miss. St, UAB, Navy and Tenneessee. UAB will be tough at their home, but not impossible. Troy will be underdogs in the other three games, more then likely will be losses. If Troy doesn't beat UAB or UL, they could very well travel to North Texas at 0-3, a team that beat you at home last season. Let me add that Troy signed 15 or more JC transfers, so like ASU and UL they will have to adjust to FBS football and learn to play in a system together. All programs have questions.

MTSU went 10-3 in 2009, and was proclaimed king of football. They barely went 6-6 the next season with a win over FIU in the season finale. So what's my point? Don't assume because a team was on fire one year, they will on fire the next.

I wouldn't assume anything, because winnig on the road is very hard. But Troy had been very consistent until last season, so you believe your program the only one capable of having a stretch of winning seasons in the Sun Belt? We will find out about ASU and UL this year.

As with FAU and MTSU, teams that make massive jumps in one year usually go back the other direction the very next year. For instance, teams that go 2-10ish most of the time and then go 8-4 will usually, but not always, go back where they came from. And teams that usually have 8-12 win seasons and go and have a 2-4 win season, will usually, but not always, go right back up the next year (Phil Steele's research).

Its hard for me to believe either program will be as bad as last season. When teams come off of losing seasons its important to get that first win under their belt to build confidence. That in my mind will decide how improved each program will be in the win or loss column. I don't know enough about either at this point to make predictions.

Back on Arkansas State and UL. Both teams had some close wins. Teams that have multiple close wins tend to underachieve the next season (FAU 2007/2008). (Its the kiss of death to win close games). Teams that have multiple close losses, tend to do better the next season (also phil steele).

Read that from Phil Steel, in some case it is true, but too many scenarios play into that statement, and he offered no evidence to support his claim. Would I predict UL would score 6 touchdowns by the defense again? No...Is the offense capable of scoring 6 more TD's this season? Yes, because Gautier didn't become the full time starter until the fourth game of the season in 2011.

All I'm saying is its safe to bet on these frontrunners, but don't be surprised if the top four isn't who you thinkit will be. I wanted to shed some light on some big holes many people are overlooking.

I wouldn't be surprised because that has been the case more often then not in the Sun Belt. But not for the same reasons you have stated in your breakdown.

On Troy: I think Troy will go 7-5 or better. I have some compelling evidence many of you would like to hear if anyone's interested, but I won't take up anymore space in this post. Just ask.

I addressed this earlier in my respone, but should Troy begin the season 1-4, it will be tough. I would like to look at this in early August before I make any predictions on records.

Overall thoughts? I have plenty more to say, but I didn't want to post a wall of text that no one wanted to read.

Overall, not a bad breakdown. I'm not ready to make predictions at this point because we don't know who will make it on campus and who will not until August. I pointed out several areas where I disagree with you and laid out my argument. You suggested that UL and ASU have questions, both went with JCs and transfers to fill the gaps. I didn't disagree with that statement. On the other hand, Troy signs 15 to 20 JC transfers but you are confident their questions aren't as significant. Any program that signed that many JC's has major questions.

Also, you suggested that UL will struggle because they played with alot of emotion last season that cannot be duplicated this year. I stated emotion cannot be sustained for four quarters at any level and in the fourth quarter it comes down to game management and coaching. UL won four games in the fourth quarter, including a bowl victory. That suggest to me that Hudpseth puts his team in position to win the game in the fourth quarter and can coach. His record at every level suggest the same. Lucky coaches don't sustain that kind of winning record with just emotion.

All good points. As for JUCO's, I'm not making a whole lot of claims about how good our defense will be. I like yourself, expect the offense to carry the team. Your team made it to 9 wins with the 84th ranked defense in the country. There will be gelling issues at first. Really though, the 7-5 or better is based mostly on:

1. The Schedule

6 home games (only five for the last ten years, 45-8 at home), only two road games in a row (also a first, usually three road games sometimes four in a row, this will keep us fresh), all four of the "top 4" at home (45-8 at home, 4th best in the US home record, played all four on the road last year). Traveling to ULM is always a loss, Troy has never won there. We don't play them this year, we play south instead (did not have that luxury last season). A win over UL is very likely (Troy is 24-0 in home openers, UL is 0-21 in road openers). Near middle of the season bye week (did not have a true bye week at all last year).

2. Statistically Speaking

Phil Steele's "going up" stats: #2 in US on bull market list, turnovers equal turnaround (Troy is 114th), 5th in US in returning offensive yards + much improved offensive line + Chip Reeves and Jamel Johnson big time wrs from 2010. (34.4% in 2011 to 95.6% returning yards for 2012, 5th in the US). Phil also says that teams that make big jumps in either direction, tend to go back the other way the following season (Five 8 win+ seasons and now one 3-9 season should reap better results, and coupled with Blakeney's no back to back losing seasons, this is a safe bet.)

3. Coaching Consistency vs Coaching Talent

The one thing people aren't realizing is that while the top 4 have great head coaches, so does Troy. But you can't buy consistency. He's been here 22 years, none of the top 4 even come close. Great coaches, but Troy has program consistency on its side. That can't be overstated.

4. Troy Shines In The Underdog Role

The targets have shifted to Arkansas State and UL. We don't have as big of a target as we have had the last several years. This will allow us to fly under the radar. Most people have us pegged at 7th, and I feel like players and coaches think similarly and might believe that Troy has fallen off. There won't be as big of a sense of urgency to defeat Troy as it has in previous years. The focus is on UL, ASU, and probably FIU (My pick to win the conference).

Again, I'm not saying Troy will win the sunbelt, just that we will be 7-5 or better. The schedule alone is enough to merit a few more wins, and with our team being at least a little better, we should cruise to 7 wins no problem. Hope that answers your question Cardinal.

3. Coaching Consistency vs Coaching Talent

The one thing people aren't realizing is that while the top 4 have great head coaches, so does Troy. But you can't buy consistency. He's been here 22 years, none of the top 4 even come close. Great coaches, but Troy has program consistency on its side. That can't be overstated."


I Agree, and anyone that states otherwise has not watched Sun Belt football very much over the past few years. Coach Blakely is the dean of Sun Belt coaches and has the more career wins then anyone coaching in the conference today. Troy has been the most consistent football program since its entry into the Sun Belt.

I would like to add one foot note to my post. Not only has Coach Blakely won, but he has recruited the best talent in the past. But, this is no longer the case when you look at the rosters of UL, ASU, WKU and FIU. All four programs have as much or more talent as Troy now. UL will have four former SEC signees Field, Jones, Barksdale and Worthy on the defensive side of the ball. Troy was the only program for the most part pulling in talent like that several years ago, but things have changed. And that as why I feel the task of getting Troy back to the top of the Sun Belt may take longer then one year. The talent is much more spread out and it will not be as easy as it was two or three years ago for Troy to finish in the top 3 in the conference. Right now, Blakely is still the best coach in the Sun Belt.
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2012 05:34 PM by CrazyCajun.)
06-22-2012 05:32 PM
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