It's close enough to do our season prediction and I'm curious as to what other fans believe.

8-4

Here's how I rated us in a previous thread and I'm sticking to it:

@Akron - win by 15,, but not as much as we should win by
@tOSU - lose by 10, we'll keep it close for a while, but they'll break us
FIU - win big
Mizzou - lose in a squeaker, I have no faith that Leary can win this game
ECU - win by 10
USM - win in a squeaker
@Memphis - win, but not by as much as we should
@Marshall - win in a squeaker
SMU - win in a squeaker
@UTEP - lose in a squeaker, we'll do something stupid and lose this one
@Tulsa - win in a squeaker or lose by a touchdown
UAB - win, but not by as much as we should

So either 9-3 and in the CCG, or 8-4 and probably in the CCG.

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I suspect UCF will lose to the usual suspects (big conference teams, So. Miss, Tulsa) and have at least 1 or 2 bad games where they blow it due to unforced errors like stupid turnovers, penalties, lack of 3rd down conversions, missed FG's/XP's, etc. That will lead to another 7-5 or at best 8-4 season.

If our QB play is decent we go 9-3....if our defense is lights out 10-2....if either of those dont happen we could go 6-6.

UCF usually has at least one or two catastrophic failure or let down each year. Why is there no news or lack of excitement this year during off season.

(06-16-2012 07:00 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  UCF usually has at least one or two catastrophic failure or let down each year. Why is there no news or lack of excitement this year during off season.

We don't want to eat crow like we did last year.

This time last year everyone was like AWWW YEAH BCS BOWL HERE WE COME.

Even I was entertaining the thought of an undefeated Houston versus undefeated UCF in the CCG (well I was half right).

I'd like to say we've wisened as a fanbase. I'm cautiously optimistic. I know many that are cautiously or outright pessimistic. There are few that are like last year. Those special teams fu@k ups really threw a wrench in our plans.

(06-16-2012 07:52 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(06-16-2012 07:00 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  UCF usually has at least one or two catastrophic failure or let down each year. Why is there no news or lack of excitement this year during off season.

We don't want to eat crow like we did last year.

This time last year everyone was like AWWW YEAH BCS BOWL HERE WE COME.

Even I was entertaining the thought of an undefeated Houston versus undefeated UCF in the CCG (well I was half right).

I'd like to say we've wisened as a fanbase. I'm cautiously optimistic. I know many that are cautiously or outright pessimistic. There are few that are like last year. Those special teams fu@k ups really threw a wrench in our plans.

I should have learned long ago to stop getting so excited about the season following our winning seasons (my first year at UCF coincided with GOL's first year), last year I thought would be different because we were coming off our first two back-to-back winning seasons in GOL's entire tenure. I let myself be optimistic. Not going to do that again. Not as long as GOL is in charge.

This is truly sad that every real UCF fan knows not to get excited about football season because of the inevitable heartbreak. We have such a unique fanbase, but it is an unfortunate statement for the status of our team. Some day he will be gone and we can have some sort of winning consistency.

(06-18-2012 10:01 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  This is truly sad that every real UCF fan knows not to get excited about football season because of the inevitable heartbreak. We have such a unique fanbase, but it is an unfortunate statement for the status of our team. Some day he will be gone and we can have some sort of winning consistency.

I don't remember much winning consistency even before He-who-shall-not-be-named's tenure.

I think that the fans have been trained over the last few years to expect disappointment when we are excited, victory when we are pessimistic, and disappointment when we are neutral.

Our first visit to the CUSA title game was so surprising it won He-who-shall-not-be-named a COY. Our first championship came after the beatdown-that-shall-not-be-named and our fans collectively giving up on the season. I also remember telling anyone who asked that I expected to get trashed in our Liberty Bowl v. UGA.

This year, I'm neutral. It feels like an 8-4 year with a St. Pete bowl win that lifts our spirits.

UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.

Lets hope not.

(06-19-2012 11:09 AM)MWD1001 Wrote:  UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.

You could make this same post about Penn State, or FSU, or pretty close to any school for that matter.

There are very few Alabama's (on one end) and UAB's (on the other end) that just consistently win or lose. Most programs go in cycles, that over the course of 15-20 years look just like how you described UCF. This could be the year we lose all our OOC games against AQ opponents, drop a non-AQ OOC game, and lose 75% of our conference games. We could also win most of our OOC games and win our conference.

My guess for this year is 11-3 give or take 2 win (yes, I believe at worst this team gets 9 wins this year).

(06-19-2012 12:50 PM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(06-19-2012 11:09 AM)MWD1001 Wrote:  UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.

You could make this same post about Penn State, or FSU, or pretty close to any school for that matter.

There are very few Alabama's (on one end) and UAB's (on the other end) that just consistently win or lose. Most programs go in cycles, that over the course of 15-20 years look just like how you described UCF. This could be the year we lose all our OOC games against AQ opponents, drop a non-AQ OOC game, and lose 75% of our conference games. We could also win most of our OOC games and win our conference.

My guess for this year is 11-3 give or take 2 win (yes, I believe at worst this team gets 9 wins this year).

An 11 win season would be a nice surprise, but honestly would not shock me. But how can you see 9 wins as the worst case scenario?

I feel like there are so many moving pieces that this team could be our best or the same as last year. We have big question marks in a number of different areas. None of these are impossible to fix and I don't see any gaping holes on the team, but 9 wins seems like an optimistic worst case scenario.

I base my prediction as much on the state of CUSA as I do the state of UCF.

I am going to be a homer and say they will go 10-2, a loss to Missourri and Tulsa. This all depends on how much preessure the defense can put on the offense up front. I thought they did a poor job last year pressuring the quarterback, SMU was a great example, and Tulsa showed that they could dominate the d line by running it up the gut towards the end of the game (at home at that). The offense should be much more consistent with the talent in the backfield and the returning starters on the offensive line. Just alittle over a month to find out. I can't wait.

If lose 6 games by 7 points or less again this year, well idk what I'm gonna do but I will sure be p'd off.

(06-19-2012 10:59 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  I am going to be a homer and say they will go 10-2, a loss to Missourri and Tulsa. This all depends on how much preessure the defense can put on the offense up front. I thought they did a poor job last year pressuring the quarterback, SMU was a great example, and Tulsa showed that they could dominate the d line by running it up the gut towards the end of the game (at home at that). The offense should be much more consistent with the talent in the backfield and the returning starters on the offensive line. Just alittle over a month to find out. I can't wait.

You really think UCF is going to win at Ohio State in Columbus?

Phil Steele seems to like UCFs chances too

"That means in the last 6 years the team that I have predicated as my Top non-AQ school in ALL SIX years has finished as the best non-AQ team with FIVE of them making BCS bowls!

This year I'm going for SEVEN IN A ROW, my call is for the UCF Knights to go unbeaten in CUSA play and be the top non-AQ team in the country this year as they are my Most Improved Team!"

Either Phil Steele hasn't done his research or isn't familiar with UCF, either way I'm not buying what he's selling.