(05-30-2012 08:45 PM)Maize Wrote: (05-30-2012 08:43 PM)CommuterBob Wrote: But does that mean the contract payout does not go up per school with new members? If it can't go up, I think they stay at 10 because dividing all that BCS money and Tournament money and bowl money is 20% more per school 10 ways than it is 12 ways.
No, it more like they will not "lose $$$$" if they add schools. If they add "certain schools" they will make even more..."FSU, Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech etc. etc."
I disagree. Read the actual statement carefully. You left out a key phrase in your OP. Here it is, cut and pasted directly from the story you linked:
Within that deal is a clause that will give any new expansion candidates the same money as the current members (estimated to be at least
$20 million per year).
One industry source said
that number applies whether the Big 12 invites, "Appalachian State or Florida State."
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IMO, that means THERE IS NO BUMP IF FSU IS INVITED. It also probably applies to any money gained from a CCG. Giving any 2 schools the same money costs about $40M a year. So, a lot of it would come from the CCG, and the rest would likely be made up by the network having extra inventory. The networks aren't going to give money away, especially when it is worded as "any two teams are the same."
That tells me there is no incentive for the B12 to expand. UNLESS something in the new playoff format gives them incentive to bleed off the remaining good ACC FB teams, to complete the dominance by the top 4 conferences. I doubt that.
However, even then, that will make UT's and OU's path harder, for no additional money, and it will also give rise to new "BCS Busters" in the ACC or BE, who could run the table and steal a playoff spot.
The other expansion possibility would be if Notre Dame decided to join somewhere, but as long as they have access to the playoff, that's not happening, either.
Seems to me like that pretty much shuts the door on expansion, at least until some more TV contracts come up. The B1G is in 5 years, and I think the rest are 13-15 years out, at least. JMO.