(05-27-2012 10:56 AM)ECUPirated Wrote: (05-27-2012 10:24 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote: I know this game has been CUSA vs. SBC from its inception but CUSA is only going to be able to certify 4 bowl games if the 7 win rule comes into play.
My latest projections have CUSA leaving the NO Bowl for the Independence.
CUSA 2014-17 cycle games
1a) Belk (CUSA East winner)
1b) Independence (CUSA West winner)
3) Ticket City
4) St. Pete
That may be it for CUSA as they don't have have enough football tradition among the remaining teams to certify more. The Big East however because they reloaded with good football teams can sign 7 bowls.
Therefore, I could see the NO bowl becoming SBC vs. Big East during the next round of bowl negotiations. There is a lot of desire in keeping the NO Bowl going because NO is an easy flight.
Beyond NO and Mobile, I think the SBC will have to wait until 2017 to land a third bowl which I think could be a new game in New Orleans vs. CUSA once both conferences mature more at the FBS level.
Okay.
1. The 7 game limit hasn't been implemented to date.
2. Everybody says the Liberty will go to the Big East because Memphis is located there, but nobody says the same about the NO bowl and the fact Tulane is there.
3. Odds are with 14 teams and maybe more (MTSU,FAU,etc) CUSA will have at least 5-6 teams with 6-7 wins.
4. Enough football tradition (whatever that means):
Tulsa, Southern Miss, Marshall, East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, FIU, etc. I'd say there is plenty of tradition there.
5. "Once mature at the FBS level". What?
1. The current certification rules are that a conference can count the average of its 7 win teams toward its bowl numbers AND its number of 6 win teams can be applied toward back up agreements.
With new rules disallowing 6 win back ups, that will put 4-5 games out of existence; Kraft Fight for Hunger, Potato Bowl, BBVA Compass, Armed Forces are the most likely games out. The Sun Belt won't be able to bring any new games forward in 2014 in the bowl climate of trimming back.
2. The Big East has an a conditional agreement with the Liberty Bowl even without Memphis in the conference. With Memphis in the conference I couldn't see the Liberty giving the Big East anything less than a tie-in.
3. The problem CUSA has is that it replaced some of its more successful football teams in UCF, Houston and SMU....schools likely to be the 7 game winners in 2012 with 3 FCS upgrades in ODU, Charlotte, UTSA that have never played a down at the top level. In the short term (and I'm talking for the 2010-13 averages) CUSA is going to be in a world of hurt UNLESS Houston, UCF, SMU have poor 2012 in conference while the new schools come into CUSA year 1 and pump out 7 win seasons.
CUSA 7 win teams (2008-2011) new lineup:
CUSA
2011 (5)
2010 (3)
2009 (3)
2008 (5)
Its very difficult to see CUSA improving on those numbers much if at all over the next 2 seasons in advance of the 2014 cycle.
4. I'm defining football tradition as the amount of 7 win teams a conference has averaged over the previous 4 seasons.
7 win tradition, something CUSA is woefully lacking in once the conference remodeling effort is underway.
5. Once mature, meaning once Charlotte, Old Dominion, UT-San Antonio, Texas State, Georgia State, South Alabama have all played at the FBS level for a solid 4-5 years both CUSA and the SBC will be in a position to sign more bowl games for the 2017 cycle.
CUSA will eventually be a 6 bowl conference again with a new game in San Antonio but not right away. There is loads of potential for both CUSA and the SBC but it will be a few years before its realized.
In the meantime, I would expect the MAC to gain some ground on the bowl front especially if it picks up the slack on the Army/BYU agreements because the MAC can certify 4 games and only has Mobile signed for 2014-17. They'll have their pick of the remaining games they wish to sign for the next cycle.
Detroit if they can, Hawaii since CUSA will want out of that and MAYBE something like the Liberty if the SEC pulls out of Memphis.