(05-28-2012 07:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 06:16 PM)omniorange Wrote:  All three Big 12 bottom feeders won more games than Duke in that time frame but apparently didn't play enough opponents with winning records to average an SOS anywhere near Duke's. If playing Duke is an SOS killer than please explain how the Coastal teams (which play Duke annually) have an overall higher SOS as a group than does the Atlantic?

Cheers,
Neil

During that time period the Coastal division had 4 teams in the top 40 or so: Va Tech, Ga Tech, Miami and UNC. That, plus a pretty decent OOC slate (between 2005 and 2009, VT played Alabama, LSU, Nebraska and Tennessee, for example; ironically, all 4 of those teams have played LSU since 2005). That high SoS is in spite of Duke, not because of it.

Neil, I realize that Syracuse has never actually beaten the Blue Devils on the gridiron, but be patient - you'll get your chance.

Again, you're missing the point. Duke, as a bottom feeder in a league, isn't the SOS killer you want to make them out to be. Anymore than SU, which has had a terrible win-loss record during the above 5 year data span had, was in the Big East.

Sure, playing a bunch of Dukes would kill your SOS, but as bottom feeders go, playing Duke is much better than playing the bottom feeders in the Big 12 even though they win more games.

Cheers,
Neil

(05-28-2012 07:34 PM)catdaddy_2402 Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 05:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Still, to be fair, Duke is still stronger than most FCS opponents - the problem is control (i.e. you can control which week you play an OOC team, but the ACC doesn't do Clemson any favors by allowing them to play Duke the week before, say, SC).

You have to remember that other than The Citadel, our OOC opponents are the cream of their conference crop. Furman, Wofford, Coastal Carolina, and SC State are in contention for their conference more years than they aren't, thus they typically have a high RPI.

Last year Wofford was two places behind Duke in the RPI. They finished 3rd in the SoCon.

BTW, 13 FCS teams finished with a higher RPI than Duke last season.

Realtime RPI

When the BCS used SOS as part of its formula, I do not believe FCS teams were a part of it. I don't believe that will change when they return to using it.

Cheers,
Neil

(05-29-2012 06:49 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 07:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 06:16 PM)omniorange Wrote:  All three Big 12 bottom feeders won more games than Duke in that time frame but apparently didn't play enough opponents with winning records to average an SOS anywhere near Duke's. If playing Duke is an SOS killer than please explain how the Coastal teams (which play Duke annually) have an overall higher SOS as a group than does the Atlantic?

Cheers,
Neil

During that time period the Coastal division had 4 teams in the top 40 or so: Va Tech, Ga Tech, Miami and UNC. That, plus a pretty decent OOC slate (between 2005 and 2009, VT played Alabama, LSU, Nebraska and Tennessee, for example; ironically, all 4 of those teams have played LSU since 2005). That high SoS is in spite of Duke, not because of it.

Neil, I realize that Syracuse has never actually beaten the Blue Devils on the gridiron, but be patient - you'll get your chance.

Again, you're missing the point. Duke, as a bottom feeder in a league, isn't the SOS killer you want to make them out to be. Anymore than SU, which has had a terrible win-loss record during the above 5 year data span had, was in the Big East.

Sure, playing a bunch of Dukes would kill your SOS, but as bottom feeders go, playing Duke is much better than playing the bottom feeders in the Big 12 even though they win more games.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, if Duke had WON some of those games I would agree with you. However, simply playing (and losing to) tough teams does not make Duke strong. Their SCHEDULE is strong, but their TEAM is not.

(05-29-2012 07:13 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-29-2012 06:49 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 07:56 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 06:16 PM)omniorange Wrote:  All three Big 12 bottom feeders won more games than Duke in that time frame but apparently didn't play enough opponents with winning records to average an SOS anywhere near Duke's. If playing Duke is an SOS killer than please explain how the Coastal teams (which play Duke annually) have an overall higher SOS as a group than does the Atlantic?

Cheers,
Neil

During that time period the Coastal division had 4 teams in the top 40 or so: Va Tech, Ga Tech, Miami and UNC. That, plus a pretty decent OOC slate (between 2005 and 2009, VT played Alabama, LSU, Nebraska and Tennessee, for example; ironically, all 4 of those teams have played LSU since 2005). That high SoS is in spite of Duke, not because of it.

Neil, I realize that Syracuse has never actually beaten the Blue Devils on the gridiron, but be patient - you'll get your chance.

Again, you're missing the point. Duke, as a bottom feeder in a league, isn't the SOS killer you want to make them out to be. Anymore than SU, which has had a terrible win-loss record during the above 5 year data span had, was in the Big East.

Sure, playing a bunch of Dukes would kill your SOS, but as bottom feeders go, playing Duke is much better than playing the bottom feeders in the Big 12 even though they win more games.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, if Duke had WON some of those games I would agree with you. However, simply playing (and losing to) tough teams does not make Duke strong. Their SCHEDULE is strong, but their TEAM is not.

I believe that is the exact point that Neil is arguing. Since sos doesnt just take into account Dukes schedule, but also Dukes opponents schedule as well. If Duke plays a bunch of bcs schools (even if they lose those games) rather than fcs schools, their sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team who makes a living feasting off of fcs teams and other sisters of the poor. Keep in mind that fcs teams play mostly other fcs teams and if a bcs team plays 2 fcs teams in a season, it could bring its sos down.

(05-28-2012 08:26 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 07:56 PM)catdaddy_2402 Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 07:46 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 07:34 PM)catdaddy_2402 Wrote:  

(05-28-2012 05:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Still, to be fair, Duke is still stronger than most FCS opponents - the problem is control (i.e. you can control which week you play an OOC team, but the ACC doesn't do Clemson any favors by allowing them to play Duke the week before, say, SC).

You have to remember that other than The Citadel, our OOC opponents are the cream of their conference crop. Furman, Wofford, Coastal Carolina, and SC State are in contention for their conference more years than they aren't, thus they typically have a high RPI.

Last year Wofford was two places behind Duke in the RPI. They finished 3rd in the SoCon.

BTW, 13 FCS teams finished with a higher RPI than Duke last season.

Realtime RPI

Yes, that's why I wrote "most" instead of all. I'm sure if David Cutcliffe remains he will remedy that situation eventually, however.

Over or under on the 20th losing season in a row?

Let's see Duke's 2012 football schedule features...

FIU (better win that one)
@Stanford (Loss)
NC Central (Win)
Memphis (better win)
@Wake (toss up, lean to Wake)
UVA (Loss)
@Va Tech (Loss)
UNC (Loss)
@FSU (Loss)
Clemson (Loss)
Open Date (toss up)
@Ga Tech (Loss)
Miami (Loss)
ACC CG (sofa seat)
Best case: 4-8 / Worst case: 1-11

Honestly, I don't see Duke with a winning schedule before 2016 at least.

Look, I never said Cutcliffe would have them winning bowl games - what I said was he'd get their RPI up above the FCS teams.

(05-29-2012 08:52 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  I believe that is the exact point that Neil is arguing. Since sos doesnt just take into account Dukes schedule, but also Dukes opponents schedule as well. If Duke plays a bunch of bcs schools (even if they lose those games) rather than fcs schools, their sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team who makes a living feasting off of fcs teams and other sisters of the poor. Keep in mind that fcs teams play mostly other fcs teams and if a bcs team plays 2 fcs teams in a season, it could bring its sos down.

So let me see if I understand then... the argument is that Duke helps ACC SoS not because THEY are strong, but because their opponents are strong (hence each team that plays Duke benefits from the "opponents of my opponent" factor). Is that the gist of it?

(05-29-2012 09:42 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-29-2012 08:52 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  I believe that is the exact point that Neil is arguing. Since sos doesnt just take into account Dukes schedule, but also Dukes opponents schedule as well. If Duke plays a bunch of bcs schools (even if they lose those games) rather than fcs schools, their sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team who makes a living feasting off of fcs teams and other sisters of the poor. Keep in mind that fcs teams play mostly other fcs teams and if a bcs team plays 2 fcs teams in a season, it could bring its sos down.

So let me see if I understand then... the argument is that Duke helps ACC SoS not because THEY are strong, but because their opponents are strong (hence each team that plays Duke benefits from the "opponents of my opponent" factor). Is that the gist of it?

Sort of. I think the argument is that you don't have to beat the teams on your schedule to have a strong SOS value. Therefore, because Duke has played tough schedules they are not a drain on the SOS of ACC teams despite the fact that they don't win many of those games.

(05-29-2012 09:42 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-29-2012 08:52 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  I believe that is the exact point that Neil is arguing. Since sos doesnt just take into account Dukes schedule, but also Dukes opponents schedule as well. If Duke plays a bunch of bcs schools (even if they lose those games) rather than fcs schools, their sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team who makes a living feasting off of fcs teams and other sisters of the poor. Keep in mind that fcs teams play mostly other fcs teams and if a bcs team plays 2 fcs teams in a season, it could bring its sos down.

So let me see if I understand then... the argument is that Duke helps ACC SoS not because THEY are strong, but because their opponents are strong (hence each team that plays Duke benefits from the "opponents of my opponent" factor). Is that the gist of it?

Never said Duke helped or even implied that it helped the Acc sos nor did i say it hindered it. I just said Dukes sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team, or any other team sos who scheduled a couple of fcs teams. But yes, I do think that if Duke played a tough schedule that their opponents could benefit from Dukes sos.

(05-29-2012 09:42 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-29-2012 08:52 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  I believe that is the exact point that Neil is arguing. Since sos doesnt just take into account Dukes schedule, but also Dukes opponents schedule as well. If Duke plays a bunch of bcs schools (even if they lose those games) rather than fcs schools, their sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team who makes a living feasting off of fcs teams and other sisters of the poor. Keep in mind that fcs teams play mostly other fcs teams and if a bcs team plays 2 fcs teams in a season, it could bring its sos down.

So let me see if I understand then... the argument is that Duke helps ACC SoS not because THEY are strong, but because their opponents are strong (hence each team that plays Duke benefits from the "opponents of my opponent" factor). Is that the gist of it?

Partly, but it goes beyond even that.

In this example, Duke's opponents won-loss record (taking out any FCS game wins or losses and minus their record against Duke) is one part of the equation.

The other part, in this example, is Duke's opponents' opponents won-loss record (taking out any FCS game wins or losses or the won-loss record against that particular opponent). So, if Duke plays UConn, Navy, Northwestern, and Notre Dame OOC, as they did one of those years above, they not only get the won-loss record of those teams (minus any FCS wins or losses and minus their record against Duke), they then also get the won-loss record of the other 11 opponents those 4 teams played during the year (minus the win or the loss those opponents-opponents had against Duke's opponent).

I know it gets confusing but yes, it would obviously help if Duke or whoever is having a bad season in a conference won between 3-4 games minimum, but that doesn't always happen. So, the next best thing if you are going winless or only having 1 or 2 wins is hoping your OOC opponents go on to have a decent record.

So if your conference is full of average to less than average football teams and SOS becomes a component of the new playoff format, the conference will want those teams playing teams in other power conferences or independents who schedule well (like ND or Navy, but definitely not Army). MAC and C-USA opponents don't really do it anymore.

It's why the Pac will probably do well in the new playoff format (again IF SOS is to be a determining factor) because they play 9 conference games and will have a 10th game against the BiG. Half of the Pac teams now do not play any FCS teams as it is.

Cheers,
Neil