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Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
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jml2010 Offline
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I Root For: Tx Tech & UNT
Location: Oklahoma
Post: #81
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(03-01-2013 01:07 PM)S11 Wrote:  b- how visible they are winning: EXAMPLE: 2008 Texas Tech beating UT with a 7.5 rating on ABC gets a LOT more credit than Utah's 2008 win over TCU that was stuck on Versus.

c- bowl appearances & national titles in the past 5, 10, 15, and 20 years.

d- to a lesser extent attendance and alumni numbers.

Weight that to place more emphasis on recent years (3-5 window) as people tune in for recent success and you'd probably have something moderately reliable.

I have seen you talk about the recent article that came out about college brands on different forums. With all due respect, Tech( despite pine box) is a better brand than Baylor despite the recent success of Baylor football.

Since 2008, Tech has better numbers than Baylor on all TV channels according to the Houston Chronicle TV ratings.

Tech has 5 top 25 games compared to Baylor's 1
08 UT-Tech ABC 16.2
08 Tech-OU ABC 11.6
09 Tech-UT ABC 10.9
08 Okla St-Tech ABC 9.4
11 UT-Baylor ABC 8.2
09 Tech-Houston ESPN2 7.9

On ABC-Top 25
08 UT-Tech 16.2
08 Tech-OU ABC 11.6
09 Tech-UT ABC 10.9
08 OSU-Tech ABC 9.4
11 UT-Baylor ABC 8.2
09 Tech-Neb ABC 6.7

ESPN
12 Tech-Minn ESPN 4.7 Car Care Bowl on Friday night
12 K-State-Baylor ESPN 2.94
11 Baylor-TCU ESPN 2.22 Friday night early season game

ESPN2
Tech-UH was the highest rated ESPN2 game since 2009 7.9

FOX
12 Tech-K-State 2.7
12 Baylor-Tech 2.3

You asked me on this forum if we could continue getting decent TV ratings and I say Yes. Despite the same record, we are on TV more( OTA channels), have better overall ratings and better attendance.

12 Baylor-UT ABC 5.6
12 UT-Tech ABC 5.4
12 Tech-Minn ESPN 4.7
12 WVU-Tech FOX 4
12 Tech-TCU ABC 3.6
12 Tech-K-State FOX 2.7
12 OU-Tech ABC 2.4
12 Baylor- Tech FOX 2.3
12 K-State- Baylor ESPN 2.22
12 Tech-Okla St FSSW 1.19
12 Kansas-Tech FSSW .5
12 Baylor-OU FSSW .4
12 Baylor-Iowa St FSSW .3
12 Kansas-Baylor FSSW .2

20-17 overall/9-17 conference at Tech means your HC escapes to BBall school in the crumbling Big East.
33-30 overall/17-25 conference at Baylor gets you a pay raise and a contract extension. Sorry for the rant but I think things needed to be cleared up.
03-03-2013 09:25 PM
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billings Offline
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I Root For: Wyo / Mont St.
Location: Billings, Montana
Post: #82
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
PAC has no Competition with other AQ leagues for TV slots in the west. East is crowded TV
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2013 09:30 PM by billings.)
03-03-2013 09:30 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(03-03-2013 05:13 PM)S11 Wrote:  
(03-03-2013 12:37 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(03-01-2013 01:07 PM)S11 Wrote:  
(03-01-2013 12:17 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 09:51 AM)S11 Wrote:  Attendance is sometimes a good indicator but you certainly have significant outliers.

Boise has 36k, ECU has 50k but pretty much everyone except Pirate homers would agree that BSU is by far the bigger and more valuable brand.

Miami has 45k and ISU has 55k but nobody thinks the Cyclones pack as much tv punch as Da U.

So it's one of many metrics.

Yes, I think that it is an indicator of the real driving forces, but your BSU and Miami examples illustrate outliers which will always be present in statistics. Grouping schools together (i.e. what conferences do) balances out much of that random chance. For every Boise, there are teams that have strong followings that stink. Texas also missed a bowl a year ago, and PSU will likely fall off, but I bet their attendance will still be strong by most objective standards.

I'm not disputing that at all. My whole point is that relying on the attendance metric on it's own to valuate a single program is far from reliable.

If I had to do it it in terms of recent brand I'd probably put some kind of math equation with complexities accounting for:

a- how much teams won and who they won against.

b- how visible they are winning: EXAMPLE: 2008 Texas Tech beating UT with a 7.5 rating on ABC gets a LOT more credit than Utah's 2008 win over TCU that was stuck on Versus. Both were tough wins but people remember one game and scratch their heads at the other.

c- bowl appearances & national titles in the past 5, 10, 15, and 20 years.

d- to a lesser extent attendance and alumni numbers.

Weight that to place more emphasis on recent years (3-5 window) as people tune in for recent success and you'd probably have something moderately reliable.

A-C affect attendance. Personally, I would do it by revenues* and projected revenue trends**, but attendance is close enough***.

*I would use revenues, because average ticket prices vary, and revenues accounts for basketball and olympic sport contributions, as opposed to just football.
**Many of your factors affect projected revenue trends.
***Although it does discriminate against private schools, which tend to have broader fan bases, because there is MUCH less regional/state loyalty, so their ratings tend to be better than their attendances.

Perhaps I phrased it in a way that implied differently but I was talking in terms of tv value. So ticket prices won't have any real impact on viewership but teams winning big games on the big stage tend to increase in value like Boise did.

Winning big games on big stages tends to increase ticket sales. Watch a Miami game from the 80's-90's and watch one from today if you don't believe me.
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2013 09:38 PM by nzmorange.)
03-03-2013 09:38 PM
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