(05-05-2012 12:10 AM)HerdZoned Wrote: (05-04-2012 11:13 PM)Burn the Horse Wrote: Yall DO realize that Conference USA isn't going to hang on to all their bowls and the TV contract that has held them above us now, right?
Where are they going. The only bowl we will probably lose is The Liberty Bowl. And there wasn't a CUSA team in it last year anyway. Plus we may have a chance to eventually pick up the Indy bowl and a bowl in Charlotte.
As far as money and TV contacts go, when the last realignment went down all of Louisville, USF, and Cincy said they would never get a better TV contract than what they had. At the time they had a 9 million dollar contract from ESPN. Well a year half ago CUSA signed 7 million with CBS College Sports and 7 million with Fox = 14 million or 1.23 million per school.
As Ive said it before if we come back in 50 years the core of the Sun Belt will be together just like the MAC. The core has already went as far as they can go.
Let's shine a touch of reality on your pompous positioning.
#1. The highest paying bowl Conference USA had, it's true premier event, opted to push the champ out last year and they will almost certainly not re-sign CUSA for 2014 and beyond.
#2. NCAA rules provide that you can only sign primary contracts up to the average number of teams finishing bowl eligible the prior four years (2010-2013 is the next evaluation cycle). CUSA is currently on track to lose at least one possibly two contract spots simply by operation of rule.
#3. The SEC, ACC, Big 10 and Big East are on track to increase their number of bowl contracts. The ACC wants out of San Francisco and Shreveport. They will accomplish the first, the second is in the air. ACC is rumored to want to play in St. Pete and Big East is expected to re-sign. Unless the SEC jumps in and makes a play, it is going to be ACC-Big East. The ACC had inquired about GoDaddy and was throwing out the idea to make it ACC-SEC if the SEC gets the extra bowls approved. There is a reason Commissioner Benson was there signing a new contract early. Let's look at the other bowls around that SEC and ACC might contemplate to meet their needs. Armed Forces has locked academies in through 2017. Big XII will be their preference but ACC and SEC will both be interested Big 10 has demonstrated recent interest in Texas games. Military Bowl contract expires this year, CUSA basically got in because Big XII losing teams cut the number of contracts they could sign. Ticket City was another case of benefitting from the cut in Big XII contracts. New Orleans has been dumped by CUSA in consecutive years while the Sun Belt has happily accommodated their requests for specific teams the past few years. New Orleans is likely shopping and with the Big East needing to find regional bowls to accomodate Houston, SMU, and Memphis (
) New Orleans will be in play.
#4. Let's do the full history of CUSA and TV. ESPN cut CUSA's money when Louisville, DePaul, et. al left. CUSA made up part of that with the CBSC deal, made up more with the 2010 CBSC deal, and finally got ahead with the Fox deal but had to give up the rights to the title game for free to settle an ESPN lawsuit. The gains CUSA experienced percentage wise don't reflect the pace of gain around the country. All of that was done prior to losing four teams. There is no guarantee the CBSC and Fox deals won't be cut or that CBSC and Fox won't demand in lieu of a cut that they get additional years at the current rate delaying when CUSA can cash in on the rapid inflation of TV rights.
#5 As to the core argument, let's examine that. CUSA was formed in 1996. After this realignment Southern Miss and Tulane will be the only remaining schools that played football in CUSA that year. ECU came a year later, UAB was a charter basketball school but later football addition. Everyone else came in 2005 or this addition. Of the presumably six schools being added only two were FBS the last time CUSA expanded. That means there is basically no core at all to CUSA, though I would contend there is a core. It is Rice, Tulane, UAB and Marshall because those are the schools least likely to be involved if things shake up with a Big XII expansion, a Big East expansion, SEC going to 16, or ACC replacing or adding.