(03-26-2012 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the problem with a 10 yr grant of rights is frankly the western schools won't agree to that long of a period.

Other than the one or 2 holding out for a BE invite they don't have a lot of choice. They desperately need to get out of their TV deal, and C-USA holds all the cards for them to do it. They are not strong enough to raid C-USA, and they are stuck without the merger. I'm not sure if 10 years is the number, but I have heard grumblings about it, and I think it's the length of time needed to actually give the merger a chance to grow and reach it's potential. C-USA and MWC's downfall were that each time they started to get close to breaking through they got prison raped by the AQ leagues. I still believe there is enough strength left in the combined league to make one last go of it and have a chance to get back to the point each league got where they were ready to break through. The teams have to decide do they want to repeat history and right when they get to that point be raided again or agree to stand together and build this thing to last and work long term. We'll know the answer to that when we find out if there is going to be a grant of rights and the length of time it lasts. If there's no grant of rights or only a 5 year then history shows how this story will end.

It's not as if the CUSA schools are at a huge numbers advantage to where they can dictate everything. Both sides enter with 8 schools.... So- it's total parity in terms of entering in. While CUSA has the better tv deal- BOTH are going by the wayside, so that's not a major concern at all. CUSA doesn't hold all the cards by any means at all.

(03-26-2012 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the problem with a 10 yr grant of rights is frankly the western schools won't agree to that long of a period.

Other than the one or 2 holding out for a BE invite they don't have a lot of choice. They desperately need to get out of their TV deal, and C-USA holds all the cards for them to do it. They are not strong enough to raid C-USA, and they are stuck without the merger. I'm not sure if 10 years is the number, but I have heard grumblings about it, and I think it's the length of time needed to actually give the merger a chance to grow and reach it's potential. C-USA and MWC's downfall were that each time they started to get close to breaking through they got prison raped by the AQ leagues. I still believe there is enough strength left in the combined league to make one last go of it and have a chance to get back to the point each league got where they were ready to break through. The teams have to decide do they want to repeat history and right when they get to that point be raided again or agree to stand together and build this thing to last and work long term. We'll know the answer to that when we find out if there is going to be a grant of rights and the length of time it lasts. If there's no grant of rights or only a 5 year then history shows how this story will end.

It's not as if the CUSA schools are at a huge numbers advantage to where they can dictate everything. Both sides enter with 8 schools.... So- it's total parity in terms of entering in. While CUSA has the better tv deal- BOTH are going by the wayside, so that's not a major concern at all. CUSA doesn't hold all the cards by any means at all.

The reality is, regardless of whose plan it is, the MWC wants this as much as C-USA does. There may be some sticking points when it comes to details but ultimately neither side has much choice. I think that's the point bonds is trying to make. People keep trying to act like the MWC is being bullied, by C-USA, into something they don't want and C-USA doesn't really have the power to do so. It's more like the situation at hand, not C-USA, is bullying the MWC.

So, it's not quite the power struggle that some are making it out to be. The two sides will find common ground. Whether that ground provides the stability needed to prosper remains to be seen. JMO.

(03-26-2012 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the problem with a 10 yr grant of rights is frankly the western schools won't agree to that long of a period.

Other than the one or 2 holding out for a BE invite they don't have a lot of choice. They desperately need to get out of their TV deal, and C-USA holds all the cards for them to do it. They are not strong enough to raid C-USA, and they are stuck without the merger. I'm not sure if 10 years is the number, but I have heard grumblings about it, and I think it's the length of time needed to actually give the merger a chance to grow and reach it's potential. C-USA and MWC's downfall were that each time they started to get close to breaking through they got prison raped by the AQ leagues. I still believe there is enough strength left in the combined league to make one last go of it and have a chance to get back to the point each league got where they were ready to break through. The teams have to decide do they want to repeat history and right when they get to that point be raided again or agree to stand together and build this thing to last and work long term. We'll know the answer to that when we find out if there is going to be a grant of rights and the length of time it lasts. If there's no grant of rights or only a 5 year then history shows how this story will end.

It's not as if the CUSA schools are at a huge numbers advantage to where they can dictate everything. Both sides enter with 8 schools.... So- it's total parity in terms of entering in. While CUSA has the better tv deal- BOTH are going by the wayside, so that's not a major concern at all. CUSA doesn't hold all the cards by any means at all.

They hold more because at any point in time we can walk away from the deal, raid the Sun-Belt, and just move on. Sure it won't be financially good for us, but the options for the MWC without the merger are bleak. The TV deal is terrible and restrictive, the expansion options are very small, and the next BE member is likely to come from their group leaving them in an even worse position. C-USA is doing the merger because it wants to, the MWC is doing it because it has to, that's the difference.

(03-26-2012 10:42 AM)apex_pirate Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-26-2012 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the problem with a 10 yr grant of rights is frankly the western schools won't agree to that long of a period.

Other than the one or 2 holding out for a BE invite they don't have a lot of choice. They desperately need to get out of their TV deal, and C-USA holds all the cards for them to do it. They are not strong enough to raid C-USA, and they are stuck without the merger. I'm not sure if 10 years is the number, but I have heard grumblings about it, and I think it's the length of time needed to actually give the merger a chance to grow and reach it's potential. C-USA and MWC's downfall were that each time they started to get close to breaking through they got prison raped by the AQ leagues. I still believe there is enough strength left in the combined league to make one last go of it and have a chance to get back to the point each league got where they were ready to break through. The teams have to decide do they want to repeat history and right when they get to that point be raided again or agree to stand together and build this thing to last and work long term. We'll know the answer to that when we find out if there is going to be a grant of rights and the length of time it lasts. If there's no grant of rights or only a 5 year then history shows how this story will end.

It's not as if the CUSA schools are at a huge numbers advantage to where they can dictate everything. Both sides enter with 8 schools.... So- it's total parity in terms of entering in. While CUSA has the better tv deal- BOTH are going by the wayside, so that's not a major concern at all. CUSA doesn't hold all the cards by any means at all.

The reality is, regardless of whose plan it is, the MWC wants this as much as C-USA does. There may be some sticking points when it comes to details but ultimately neither side has much choice. I think that's the point bonds is trying to make. People keep trying to act like the MWC is being bullied, by C-USA, into something they don't want and C-USA doesn't really have the power to do so. It's more like the situation at hand, not C-USA, is bullying the MWC.

So, it's not quite the power struggle that some are making it out to be. The two sides will find common ground. Whether that ground provides the stability needed to prosper remains to be seen. JMO.

Read my mind. It would be easy enough for the Alliance to be axed if the details couldn't be worked out and at that point CUSA goes back to 12-14 with Sunbelt teams, GA State, Old Dominion, or maybe even some MAC teams. If the MWC lost 1 or 2 more, they would simply merge with the WAC to get back to 12 and suffer through whatever media deal they have.

In the end I believe the details will be agreed upon and the Alliance moves forward. I said in another post, that at a minimum the Alliance HAS to establish itself as the #7 conference (football)and depending on the success of each team, maybe even #6 ahead of the BE to have a spot at the dinner table when all the BCS/AQ crap is figured out. The only way to ensure that, is to build power together, weaken the Belt, WAC,MAC by inviting their best teams, improving the media deal, and ultimately being successful on the football field.

If there's no merger- do you REALLY think the CUSA tv deal would remain as is? Right now it's 14 million a year combined. If there's no merger- that number would be slashed in half even with the additions. So like 500k per year per school. Massive tv deal there.

MWC would likely just add Utah St and San Jose St- and their tv deal is maintained close to as is. They would likely play out the current deal for another 4-5 years and then go to the open market. MWC would be getting DOUBLE what CUSA is getting.

And- it'd be very possible that you would see UTEP and Tulsa head out west. Maybe even more than just those 2.

(03-26-2012 10:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If there's no merger- do you REALLY think the CUSA tv deal would remain as is? Right now it's 14 million a year combined. If there's no merger- that number would be slashed in half even with the additions. So like 500k per year per school. Massive tv deal there.

MWC would likely just add Utah St and San Jose St- and their tv deal is maintained close to as is. They would likely play out the current deal for another 4-5 years and then go to the open market. MWC would be getting DOUBLE what CUSA is getting.

And- it'd be very possible that you would see UTEP and Tulsa head out west. Maybe even more than just those 2.

"Possible", "maybe", "what if". The bottom line is nobody knows, but what "appears" to make sense is for the Alliance to move forward. The TV deal/s ain't the only thing driving the bus here. Relevancy is. As I see it, if the Alliance doesn't move forward by both parties, the MWC becomes a souped up WAC and CUSA becomes a souped up BELT just like the Big East is nothing more than a souped up CUSA.....mwc and that's not good for either group.

Who really cares who needs who more? I've got the chicken and you got the frying pan and the fire. Which one is more important? Hard to say, but either way, neither of us is eating unless we "pool our resources"

MWC deal runs thru 2015-16- so it would be for only 3 more years before going out on the open market. MWC has one major advantage in TV vs C-USA- and that's the ability for late night starts. If CUSA tried to tilt everything in their favor(which I don't think they're going to do)- MWC easily could balk and not do it.

MWC has more bball units coming up as well vs CUSA. Just this year- 5 vs 2. Think about this- in the next 6 years- MWC would be getting 7.5 million vs 3 million. Add in just last year- 7 vs 2- so total of 12 vs 4. And a MWC in the future with New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado St, Nevada, maybe Utah St- will be able to maintain what the MWC has done- or close. CUSA w/o Memphis- no school other than Memphis has won a tourney game since the last raid.

There's a LOT financially that is making the merger a reality for CUSA as well.