=>moll's Percentage Change of Each Team Winning The MAC Tourney

All done on my spreadsheet using mathematical probabilities of matchups based on my subjective opinion on what % each team has of beating any other team and the likelihood each team could face any team.

% Chance To Make MAC Tourney 2nd Round
1. AKRON 100%
8. WMU 70%
9. BSU 30%
4. KENT 100%
5. EMU 90%
12. NIU 10%
2. BUFFALO 100%
7. TOLEDO 80%
10. MIAMI 20%
3. OHIO 100%
6. BGSU 90%
11. CMU 10%

% Chance To Make MAC Quarterfinals
1. AKRON 100%
8. WMU 34%
9. BSU 10%
4. KENT 100%
5. EMU 56%
12. NIU 2%
2. BUFFALO 100%
7. TOLEDO 27%
10. MIAMI 7%
3. OHIO 100%
6. BGSU 63%
11. CMU 3%

% Chance To Make MAC Semifinals
1. AKRON 100.00%
8. WMU 8.58%
9. BSU 1.53%
4. KENT 73.77%
5. EMU 16%
12. NIU 0.06%
2. BUFFALO 100.00%
7. TOLEDO 4.08%
10. MIAMI 1.36%
3. OHIO 75.36%
6. BGSU 18.90%
11. CMU 0.30%

% Chance To Make MAC Finals
1. AKRON 63.03%
8. WMU 1.29%
9. BSU 0.08%
4. KENT 33.20%
5. EMU 2.41%
12. NIU >0.00%
2. BUFFALO 59.59%
7. TOLEDO 0.61%
10. MIAMI 0.20%
3. OHIO 33.91%
6. BGSU 5.67%
11. CMU 0.02%

% Chance To Win MAC Tournament
1. AKRON 36.44%
8. WMU 0.42%
9. BSU 0.01%
4. KENT 16.08%
5. EMU 0.60%
12. NIU >0.00%
2. BUFFALO 29.54%
7. TOLEDO 0.10%
10. MIAMI 0.02%
3. OHIO 15.01%
6. BGSU 1.77%
11. CMU >0.00%

OTHER PROBABILITIES:
1) % Chance Top 4 Seeds (byes to Quarters or Semis) Win Tournament: 97.08%
2) % Chance Middle 4 Seeds (1st round home game) Win Tournament: 2.89%
3) % Chance Bottom 4 Seeds (1st round road game) Win Tournament: 0.04%

NOTES:
a) All probabilities are rounded to the nearest 100th of a percentage so may not equal 100%.
b) >0.00% = less than 1 in 10,000 chance.

Nice work

8. WMU 0.42%

so you're saying theres a chance?

And NIU has a non-zero chance of winning it all!

NIU is going to go on a 12 game win streak and win the big dance !! GO HUSKIES

(03-05-2012 10:58 PM)ilovegymnast Wrote:  NIU is going to go on a 12 game win streak and win the big dance !! GO HUSKIES

2 years in a row, that the Huskies win all of their tourney games in a season!

=>moll's Percentage Change of Each Team Winning The MAC Tourney - UPDATED AFTER 1st Round Games

All done on my spreadsheet using mathematical probabilities of matchups based on my subjective opinion on what % each team has of beating any other team and the likelihood each team could face any team.

% Chance To Make MAC Quarterfinals
1. AKRON 100%
8. WMU 85%
4. KENT 100%
12. NIU 15%
2. BUFFALO 100%
7. TOLEDO 70%
3. OHIO 100%
11. CMU 30%

% Chance To Make MAC Semifinals
1. AKRON 100.00%
8. WMU 21.25%
4. KENT 78.30%
12. NIU 0.45%
2. BUFFALO 100.00%
7. TOLEDO 10.50%
3. OHIO 86.50%
11. CMU 0.30%

% Chance To Make MAC Finals
1. AKRON 61.56%
8. WMU 3.19%
4. KENT 35.24%
12. NIU 0.01%
2. BUFFALO 59.35%
7. TOLEDO 1.58%
3. OHIO 38.93%
11. CMU 0.15%

% Chance To Win MAC Tournament
1. AKRON 35.39%
8. WMU 1.06%
4. KENT 16.79%
12. NIU >0.00%
2. BUFFALO 29.37%
7. TOLEDO 0.25%
3. OHIO 17.13%
11. CMU 0.01%

OTHER PROBABILITIES:
1) % Chance Top 4 Seeds (byes to Quarters or Semis) Win Tournament: 98.67%
2) % Chance Middle 4 Seeds (1st round home game) Win Tournament: 1.31%
3) % Chance Bottom 4 Seeds (1st round road game) Win Tournament: 0.01%

NOTES:
a) All probabilities are rounded to the nearest 100th of a percentage so may not equal 100% if add up all probabilities.
b) >0.00% = less than 1 in 10,000 chance.

=>Forgot to post after 2nd round games. :oops:

It is anyone's tournament!

moll's Percentage Change of Each Team Winning The MAC Tourney - UPDATED AFTER Quarterfinal Round Games

All done on my spreadsheet using mathematical probabilities of matchups based on my subjective opinion on what % each team has of beating any other team and the likelihood each team could face any team.


% Chance To Make MAC Finals
1. AKRON 55
4. KENT 45%
2. BUFFALO 55%
3. OHIO 45%

% Chance To Win MAC Tournament
1. AKRON 31.49%
4. KENT 21.26%
2. BUFFALO 27.23%
3. OHIO 20.03%

OTHER PROBABILITIES:
1) % Chance Top 4 Seeds (byes to Quarters or Semis) Win Tournament: 100%
2) % Chance Middle 4 Seeds (1st round home game) Win Tournament: 0%
3) % Chance Bottom 4 Seeds (1st round road game) Win Tournament: 0%

NOTES:
a) All probabilities are rounded to the nearest 100th of a percentage so may not equal 100% if add up all probabilities.
b) >0.00% = less than 1 in 10,000 chance.