Morgan one of few to have a spectacular season at 30+

02/12/12 at 8:15pm
Written by dclark

Joe Posnanski’s latest Curiously Long Post about aging and baseball players http://joeposnanski.si.com/2012/02/10/aging-with-chart/ is something a Reds fan would enjoy reading even if there was nothing Reds-related about it, in my opinion. It’s a thought-provoking take about how old baseball players are when they have outstanding seasons. The bonus for Reds fans is that Posnanski does spend a good portion of it discussing Reds great Joe Morgan and the best seasons of his career. Why? Because Little Joe was 31 when he had one of the greatest seasons ever.

Quote:Posnanski on Morgan:

Joe Morgan, on the other hand, probably had his best year at age 31 or 32 — later than most. And there’s a general feeling that Morgan did get better and better into his early 30s. I’m not saying that’s untrue … but I think it’s overstated. Morgan really had a brilliant season at age 21. Nobody noticed it because so much of his value was tied up in walks (97 … making him the first 21-year-old to lead the league in walks since 1909) and people didn’t understand yet how the Astrodome crushed a player’s power numbers.

Morgan was very good again at 22 and 23. He got hurt at 24. Then he was viewed as a failure at 25 because he hit .236. But he wasn’t a failure at all. That season he walked 110 times, stole 49 bases and hit 15 home runs. In a year dominated by pitching, that was an exceptional season for a second baseman. But nobody really saw it that way. So by the time he got to Cincinnati, few really appreciated that Joe Morgan was already a great player.

In Cincinnati his batting average spiked up. That’s when people noticed. His last three years in Houston — playing in a bad hitter’s ballpark for a bad team with a manager he could barely tolerate — he hit .253 with lots of walks and stolen bases, and some homers. His first three years in Cincinnati — unquestionably helped by the ballpark and probably helped by the energy of playing for a great team — his average spiked to .291. And along with all those other things (including an improved defensive reputation) he emerged into perhaps the best player in baseball.

Again, Morgan probably DID improve some after he got to Cincinnati. And then, at age 31, it all came together and he had one of the greatest seasons ever. But I would say that Morgan was ESSENTIALLY the same player from age 26 or 27 on. His circumstances changed. He unquestionably tightened up some of his talents. But his spectacular ability to draw walks, his base-stealing prowess, his surprising power, his run-scoring ability… I would argue that all those things were there in Houston when he was 26 years old. Much of it was just hidden by the time and place.

Also enjoyed that Posnanski pointed out earlier in the post how great Vada Pinson was when he was just 20.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/sports/2012/...son-at-30/

Check out the first in our five-part series looking at the Reds' NL Central rivals leading into spring training.

Behind enemy lineups: Milwaukee Brewers


Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE
Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy (20) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a two-run home run in the second inning of Game 6 of the 2011 NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park.

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Enquirer news services

The past 12 months for the Milwaukee Brewers have been alternately triumphant and trying.

The Brewers, who started the 2011 season with back-to-back homers off Edinson Volquez at Great American Ball Park on opening day, still left Cincinnati 0-3, then won 96 of their final 159 games to win the Central title.

After losing 4-2 to the Cardinals in the National League Championship Series, they exulted as Ryan Braun was named NL MVP, then winced as Braun was suspended for the first 50 games of the 2012 season for testing positive for a banned substance. Co-slugger Prince Fielder left via free agency as expected, for a nine-year, $214 million deal in Detroit.

Where the Brewers stand heading into spring training:

PACKING FOR SPRING: Milwaukee added third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.306, 26 homers, 93 RBI with the Chicago Cubs); ex-Reds shortstop Alex Gonzalez (.241, 15, 56 with Atlanta); outfielder Norichika Aoki (.329 lifetime in Japan); right-hander Jose Veras.

SPRING CLEANING: Milwaukee lost first baseman Fielder (.299, 38, 120); utilitymen Craig Counsell and Jerry Hairston Jr.; third baseman Casey McGehee (.223, 13, 67); shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt; right-hander LaTroy Hawkins; right-hander Takashi Saito.

FOR STARTERS: 1. RH Yovani Gallardo, 25 (17-10, 3.52 ERA); 2. RH Zack Greinke, 27 (16-6, 3.83); 3. RH Shaun Marcum, 30 (13-7, 3.54); 4. LH Randy Wolf, 35 (13-10, 3.69); 5. LH Chris Narveson, 30 (11-8, 4.45).

Milwaukee will benefit from a full season from Greinke, who started 2011 on the disabled list and had a 5.45 ERA in the first half, but went 9-3, 2.59 in the second half. Gallardo is a burgeoning ace, and getting double-digit wins from everybody and sub-4.00 ERAs from all but Narveson speaks to the depth of the staff.

CLOSING TIME: Right-hander John Axford (2-2, 1.95 ERA, 46 saves). Axford tied with Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel for the NL saves lead and held hitters to a .212 batting average with a 1.14 walks and hits to innings pitched ratio. Midseason 2011 acquisition Francisco Rodriguez gives Milwaukee a proven closer in the setup role.

EVERYDAY EIGHT: C-Jonathan Lucroy, 25 (.265, 12, 59); 1B-Mat Gamel, 26 (.115, 0, 2); 2B-Rickie Weeks, 29 (.269, 20, 49); SS-Gonzalez, 35; 3B-Ramirez, 33; LF-Braun, 28 (.332, 33, 111); CF-Nyjer Morgan, 31 (.304, 4, 37); RF-Corey Hart, 29 (.285, 26, 63).

There’s no question the Brewers will have to find ways to make up for the lost production of Fielder, and for a third of the season, Braun (who has appealed his suspension). Ramirez, who rebounded from hitting .241 in 2010, should help. How much Hart’s production might slip without big bats around him has to be a concern. Gonzalez, still effective in his 30s, should be an upgrade over Betancourt in the field. Weeks, the only returning starter from the 2011 infield, was limited to 118 games by a severe ankle sprain. He should put up numbers closer to the career-best 29 homers and 83 RBI he had in 2010.

SPRING’S BURNING QUESTION: Who plays first base, and most likely until June, left field? Gamel hasn’t shown much in four stints with the big club, which might be why the Brewers are expected to give right fielder Hart some spring work at first base. Canadian Taylor Green, 25, the Brewers’ minor leaguer of the year in 2007 before wrist surgery sidetracked him, is an option in left, as is Morgan with Carlos Gomez shifting to center. An unknown quantity is Aoki, who won three Central League batting titles with Japan’s Yakult Swallows.

BOTTOM LINE: Even a grade-A pitching staff won’t be able to overcome the lost runs, so the Brewers won’t win 96 again. But they should stay in the Central hunt.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120...ee-Brewers

Reds organization preview, Top 20 Prospects
By Spencer Fordin / MLB.com
02/08/12 10:42 AM EST

The future success of every Major League team lies largely in its Minor League pipeline. With that in mind, MLB.com is looking at each team's farm system, from the top 20 prospects to under the radar types.

The Reds aren't shy about promoting their prospects early, and they certainly aren't reluctant to package them in blockbuster trades. Cincinnati used that latter route to acquire Mat Latos earlier in the winter, but the Reds still have a fertile farm system that should yield immediate dividends.

Devin Mesoraco, for instance, is expected to compete for the starting catcher's job in Spring Training, and Zack Cozart will get a long look at shortstop. Chris Buckley, Cincinnati's senior director of amateur scouting, sees an organization filled with interesting talent from top to bottom.

"We took a hit on star power, but the depth is still good. We still think we're in good shape," he said. "They can't all play for us. How many teams can come up with a match to get Mat Latos?"

Cincinnati packaged Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger in that trade, and yet it still has dynamic infielder Billy Hamilton developing in the low Minors. Hamilton, a former second-round draftee, stole 103 bases for Class A Dayton and is still growing into his game.

"Billy Hamilton has a chance to be an outstanding player, a leadoff-type guy," said Buckley. "If he's not the fastest player I've been around, he's on the short list. It's so hard even in Class A to steal 100 bases. Everyone in the world knows you're stealing, but he just has game-changing speed."

Mesoraco, a former first-round draftee, batted .289 with 15 homers for Triple-A Louisville last season and is expected to share the big league job with veteran Ryan Hanigan. Cozart had his year cut short by surgery on his left elbow and is expected to be healthy in time for Spring Training.

Top 20 Prospects:

Even after trading Boxberger and seeing Aroldis Chapman graduate to the Majors, the Reds still have potential impact arms in Robert Stephenson and Daniel Corcino. Stephenson, last year's first-round draftee, signed too late to play last year and will make his pro debut this season.

Corcino is another pitcher out of the Johnny Cueto mold, and Buckley described him as "a smaller right-handed pitcher with obnoxious stuff." Corcino works between 93 and 97 mph on his fastball, and the 21-year-old struck out 156 batters in 26 starts for Dayton last year.

J.C. Sulbaran is another interesting arm, and he'll be tested against upper-level hitters for the first time next season. The Reds also have intriguing position players in defensive shortstop Didi Gregorious and corner masher Neftali Soto, who hit 30 homers at Double-A Carolina last year.

reds' top prospects
No. Prospect Pos. ETA
1 Devin Mesoraco C 2012
2 Billy Hamilton SS 2014
3 Robert Stephenson RHP 2015
4 Daniel Corcino RHP 2014
5 Zack Cozart SS 2012
Click here http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/mlb/prosp.../#list=cin for the complete Top 20 list on Prospect Watch.

If not for Hamilton, the accomplishments of Ryan LaMarre and Brodie Greene might get more recognition. LaMarre, a speedy center fielder, stole 52 bases for Class A Bakersfield last year, while Greene, a shortstop, hit 14 home runs and stole 36 bases for Double-A Carolina.

Under the radar:

The Reds took third baseman Gabriel Rosa in the second round of last June's First-Year Player Draft, and he went on to bat .245 in 28 games for the club's Rookie-level affiliate in Arizona.

"The physical tools are there and he's projectable," said Buckley. "He's a 4.2 runner to first base from the right side and he has a plus arm. He just has to master the strike zone."

Third baseman David Vidal was part of Hamilton's supporting cast at Class A Dayton last season, and he broke out with a .280 batting average, 20 home runs and 37 doubles. Vidal will get a chance for a high-octane encore in the explosive environment of the Class A California League.

Predictions:

Hitter of the Year

Hamilton is quite simply one of the most exciting players in the Minor Leagues, but he still has some holes in his game. The 21-year-old made 39 errors last season, and he'll have to prove that his brand of offense -- hitting it on the ground and flying to first -- will work against better pitchers.

Hamilton struck out 133 times and drew just 52 walks in 135 games last year, and the Reds would like to see him be more selective. No big league player has stolen 80 bases since the 1988 season, but if Hamilton can keep hitting in the Minors, he may get a chance to challenge that trend.

Pitcher of the Year

Corcino, like Cueto a product of Cincinnati's scouting in the Dominican Republic, made a huge step forward last season at Dayton. The right-hander had struggled with walks prior to last season, but he managed to post a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.59) in 26 starts.

If he can maintain command of the strike zone, Corcino could rise quickly through the system, giving the Reds another ingredient for the big league rotation or for inclusion in a trade.

Spencer Fordin is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.