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...what do we need to happen to the 4 teams ahead of us? Talking to you stat folks/people who are smarter than me.

Lose.

(02-10-2012 08:36 PM)the_blazerman Wrote:  Lose.

I believe I was looking for the possible scenarios to sneak up to 1st place.

It would take a lot of stuff for us to get 1st place & it may not even be theoretically possible.

We should strive for a 1st round bye right now instead.

Win out & we should get the bye. Just lose 1 game & we still may have the bye.

MB came up with some stuff the other night that he may can mention again.

Let's just win the next one then talk about it.

Very little margin for error. Certainly in head to head games remaining with teams ahead of us, we need to win.

I have no idea how to align this stuff

i love the fact that we play the other top teams in the remainder of our schedule. the opportunity is there. it's a good time to start firing on all cylinders...

This is all about getting us a tie for 1st, without regard for tiebreakers and with teams above us knocking each other down. Let's see... UAB still has to play Memphis, Tulsa, and UCF. If we did win out, Southern Miss would need 3 more losses, Memphis would need 2 more losses, UCF and Tulsa would need one more loss.

UCF and Southern Miss play Saturday, and I would say we need UCF to get this win (just because it's going to be hard to get USM 3 more losses in 6 games).

Wednesday, Tulsa and Southern Miss play (I would say Tulsa needs to win this one, again because it's going to be hardest getting USM the losses). If USM would lose to UCF and Tulsa, then we would only need USM to get one more loss.

UCF plays Memphis on February 28th, and I would say UCF since we need Memphis to get more losses than UCF.

Also, Memphis plays Tulsa on March 3rd, at this point, that would be a toss up.

Rice, who we're tied with, plays all the teams above us, except Memphis.

Marshall, who we're also tied with, plays Memphis and Southern Miss.

There is basically no chance of us getting 1st place in the conference. There are 4 teams at least 2 games clear of us, and we are currently 1-3 against that group. Even if we win out, we will be 4-3 against that group. I doubt Memphis and Southern Miss will lose more than 2 games each the rest of the way. I also don't know how likely it is that Tulsa will fall back to us if Memphis and Southern Miss somehow do. If we can find a way to win out, we need to focus on catching Tulsa and UCF, which is much more doable.(since we play each of them and both have some tough games coming up)