(02-06-2012 08:54 AM)Pulltown Falcon Wrote:  

(02-06-2012 01:50 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  Quick automatic bid check.

Reality check -

The only way OU goes to the dance is to win the MAC Tournament Title.

Sorry, but this is the MAC. We are a one bid league to a 12-bid Big East or 9-bid Big Ten.

The Big Ten is 9 bids deep in basketball? That is showing you don't understand anything related to hoops because that would never happen. The only reason the Big East picked up 11 bids is because they have 16 teams....there is no mathematical way 9 of 12 can dance in the Big Ten.

I think the chances of the MAC putting a second team of either Akron, Kent, Buffalo, Ohio is maybe 20%. It would take a perfect storm of a great bracketbuster for the MAC and dominance of all lower tier foes to make it happen. A 12-0 bracketbuster would help as its 12 additional non-conference wins.

The only way a MAC team is getting an at large bid is a top 30 rpi. Akron is the only team that could accomplish that right now. There is no way Ohio, Kent or Buffalo are getting in even with everything going right for them.

The odds of Akron running the table and getting a top 30 rpi are slim. I would put in under 5% chance of that happening. I think the MAC is capable of consistently putting teams on the wrong side of the bubble. Every year it seems like we might get a second bid but it is just outside of reach.

(02-06-2012 11:20 AM)zipsfan Wrote:  The only way a MAC team is getting an at large bid is a top 30 rpi. Akron is the only team that could accomplish that right now. There is no way Ohio, Kent or Buffalo are getting in even with everything going right for them.

The odds of Akron running the table and getting a top 30 rpi are slim. I would put in under 5% chance of that happening. I think the MAC is capable of consistently putting teams on the wrong side of the bubble. Every year it seems like we might get a second bid but it is just outside of reach.

The at-large line is 56. MAC schools in the 90's made it into the at-large field with RPI's that low. A MAC school to be safe would want to be in the top 30 but I think top 50 gives a school a shot.

The bottom line requirement I think is making a MAC final and one of the top 4 programs should have no problem doing that. The RPI's just need a lot of work yet.

(02-04-2012 11:50 PM)OZoner Wrote:  That'd be the Aggies. Also, your story isn't true.

And let's not get ahead of ourselves with Ohio. They have to host Akron and go to Kent and Buffalo. Long ways to go.

=>And Miami. Ohio had to escape to beat the RedHawks in Athens. Round Two is in Oxford. In Oxford, it is not 7-14 Miami vs. 17-4 Ohio. Rather, it is 5-5 (home record) Miami vs. 6-3 (road record) Ohio. Looks a little more even from that perspective.

(02-06-2012 11:13 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The Big Ten is 9 bids deep in basketball? That is showing you don't understand anything related to hoops because that would never happen.

=>I guess I don't have an understanding either. If the NCAA tournament happened today, I think the Big Ten gets 9.

OSU, MSU, IU, Wisky, Michigan, and Illinois are locks. 10th place Northwestern (RPI #37) is pretty close to a lock and has 3-7 record vs. top 50. That is 7 right there.

#49 Minnesota (3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. top 100, beat IU on road) and #64 Purdue (5 top 50 wins, 2 of them on the road & 1 on neutral court) would probably get in because of league record in the #1 ranked conference despite not having a perfect RPI ranking.

Problem with the Big Ten is, teams in 5th through 10th place have league records that range from 6-6 to 4-6 in league right now. Other than Iowa, who gets left out?

(02-06-2012 11:20 AM)zipsfan Wrote:  The only way a MAC team is getting an at large bid is a top 30 rpi. Akron is the only team that could accomplish that right now. There is no way Ohio, Kent or Buffalo are getting in even with everything going right for them.

The odds of Akron running the table and getting a top 30 rpi are slim. I would put in under 5% chance of that happening. I think the MAC is capable of consistently putting teams on the wrong side of the bubble. Every year it seems like we might get a second bid but it is just outside of reach.

=>I think if Akron goes 15-1 in the MAC and wins the BracketBuster at Oral Roberts, I am pretty confident that Akron goes even if it loses the MAC semifinal games. Akron would enter the MAC tournament with a 24-7 record, be 2-2 vs. the current RPI top 50, 8-6 vs. the current RPI top 100, and have a 10-5 record on the road (10-6 if count neutral game). Akron's worst loss would be on the road at current #106 Valpo.

RPI would be in the 30s.

That said, I cannot see Akron winning all four games on the road vs. WMU, ORU, Ohio, and Kent. It just isn't gonna happen. But if it does, Akron is in

(02-06-2012 11:47 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The at-large line is 56. MAC schools in the 90's made it into the at-large field with RPI's that low.

=>MAC At-Large History since 1994:

At-Large Bids Given:
1995: #54 Miami (lost in MAC semis to BSU, overall MAC Champs)
1998: #58 WMU (lost at home in MAC quarters to Miami, overall and West Co-Champs with BSU)
1999: #21 Miami (lost in MAC finals to Kent, overall and East Champs)

Left Out With A #56 or Better RPI
1995: #43 Ohio (Gary Trent's last year, won Preseason NIT, lost to EMU in MAC semis, MAC 2nd place)
2000: #56 BGSU (lost to Miami in MAC quarters, overall and East Champs), #36 Kent (lost to Ohio in MAC quarters, 2nd place overall)
2005: #39 Miami (lost to Ohio in MAC semis, overall and East Champs), #46 Buffalo (lost to Ohio in MAC finals, 2nd place overall with 5 other teams)
2010: #47 Kent (lost Ohio in MAC quarters, overall and East Champs)

(02-06-2012 11:13 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  

(02-06-2012 08:54 AM)Pulltown Falcon Wrote:  

(02-06-2012 01:50 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  Quick automatic bid check.

Reality check -

The only way OU goes to the dance is to win the MAC Tournament Title.

Sorry, but this is the MAC. We are a one bid league to a 12-bid Big East or 9-bid Big Ten.

The Big Ten is 9 bids deep in basketball? That is showing you don't understand anything related to hoops because that would never happen. The only reason the Big East picked up 11 bids is because they have 16 teams....there is no mathematical way 9 of 12 can dance in the Big Ten.

I think the chances of the MAC putting a second team of either Akron, Kent, Buffalo, Ohio is maybe 20%. It would take a perfect storm of a great bracketbuster for the MAC and dominance of all lower tier foes to make it happen. A 12-0 bracketbuster would help as its 12 additional non-conference wins.

Though unlikely, it's possible. If the 8 teams currently projected as locks or bubble teams all receive at-large bids and the conference tourney winner is one of the bottom-feeders (Northwestern, Iowa, etc.) not on the bubble, then the Big 10 would have 9 teams in. I doubt it will happen, but it's not that far-fetched.

(02-06-2012 01:30 PM)barndog Wrote:  Though unlikely, it's possible. If the 8 teams currently projected as locks or bubble teams all receive at-large bids and the conference tourney winner is one of the bottom-feeders (Northwestern, Iowa, etc.) not on the bubble, then the Big 10 would have 9 teams in. I doubt it will happen, but it's not that far-fetched.

=>At #37, Northwestern is not only on the bubble, but is on the good side of it right now. NU's remaining schedule is favorable as well. If NU wins 4 of these 8 games to go 18-12/8-10, they are probably needing only a 1st round Big Ten tourney win to clinch a spot in the NCAA tournament at 19-13. Northwestern's SOS is #9 in the country.

Feb 9 124 13-11 * Iowa
Feb 12 64 15-8 * @ Purdue
Feb 15 18 18-6 * @ Indiana
Feb 18 49 17-7 * Minnesota
Feb 21 15 16-7 * Michigan
Feb 25 144 10-14 * @ Penn State
Feb 29 4 20-3 * Ohio State
Mar 3 124 13-11 * @ Iowa

(02-06-2012 01:21 PM)mollautt Wrote:  

(02-04-2012 11:50 PM)OZoner Wrote:  That'd be the Aggies. Also, your story isn't true.

And let's not get ahead of ourselves with Ohio. They have to host Akron and go to Kent and Buffalo. Long ways to go.

=>And Miami. Ohio had to escape to beat the RedHawks in Athens. Round Two is in Oxford. In Oxford, it is not 7-14 Miami vs. 17-4 Ohio. Rather, it is 5-5 (home record) Miami vs. 6-3 (road record) Ohio. Looks a little more even from that perspective.

(02-06-2012 11:13 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The Big Ten is 9 bids deep in basketball? That is showing you don't understand anything related to hoops because that would never happen.

=>I guess I don't have an understanding either. If the NCAA tournament happened today, I think the Big Ten gets 9.

OSU, MSU, IU, Wisky, Michigan, and Illinois are locks. 10th place Northwestern (RPI #37) is pretty close to a lock and has 3-7 record vs. top 50. That is 7 right there.

#49 Minnesota (3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. top 100, beat IU on road) and #64 Purdue (5 top 50 wins, 2 of them on the road & 1 on neutral court) would probably get in because of league record in the #1 ranked conference despite not having a perfect RPI ranking.

Problem with the Big Ten is, teams in 5th through 10th place have league records that range from 6-6 to 4-6 in league right now. Other than Iowa, who gets left out?

(02-06-2012 11:20 AM)zipsfan Wrote:  The only way a MAC team is getting an at large bid is a top 30 rpi. Akron is the only team that could accomplish that right now. There is no way Ohio, Kent or Buffalo are getting in even with everything going right for them.

The odds of Akron running the table and getting a top 30 rpi are slim. I would put in under 5% chance of that happening. I think the MAC is capable of consistently putting teams on the wrong side of the bubble. Every year it seems like we might get a second bid but it is just outside of reach.

=>I think if Akron goes 15-1 in the MAC and wins the BracketBuster at Oral Roberts, I am pretty confident that Akron goes even if it loses the MAC semifinal games. Akron would enter the MAC tournament with a 24-7 record, be 2-2 vs. the current RPI top 50, 8-6 vs. the current RPI top 100, and have a 10-5 record on the road (10-6 if count neutral game). Akron's worst loss would be on the road at current #106 Valpo.

RPI would be in the 30s.

That said, I cannot see Akron winning all four games on the road vs. WMU, ORU, Ohio, and Kent. It just isn't gonna happen. But if it does, Akron is in

(02-06-2012 11:47 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The at-large line is 56. MAC schools in the 90's made it into the at-large field with RPI's that low.

=>MAC At-Large History since 1994:

At-Large Bids Given:
1995: #54 Miami (lost in MAC semis to BSU, overall MAC Champs)
1998: #58 WMU (lost at home in MAC quarters to Miami, overall and West Co-Champs with BSU)
1999: #21 Miami (lost in MAC finals to Kent, overall and East Champs)

Left Out With A #56 or Better RPI
1995: #43 Ohio (Gary Trent's last year, won Preseason NIT, lost to EMU in MAC semis, MAC 2nd place)
2000: #56 BGSU (lost to Miami in MAC quarters, overall and East Champs)
2005: #39 Miami (lost to Ohio in MAC semis, overall and East Champs), #46 Buffalo (lost to Ohio in MAC finals, 2nd place overall with 5 other teams)
2010: #47 Kent (lost Ohio in MAC quarters, overall and East Champs)

2000 Kent St. left out with a 36 RPI.

=>How did I miss that? I will edit the above.

(02-06-2012 01:21 PM)mollautt Wrote:  

(02-04-2012 11:50 PM)OZoner Wrote:  That'd be the Aggies. Also, your story isn't true.

And let's not get ahead of ourselves with Ohio. They have to host Akron and go to Kent and Buffalo. Long ways to go.

=>And Miami. Ohio had to escape to beat the RedHawks in Athens. Round Two is in Oxford. In Oxford, it is not 7-14 Miami vs. 17-4 Ohio. Rather, it is 5-5 (home record) Miami vs. 6-3 (road record) Ohio. Looks a little more even from that perspective.

(02-06-2012 11:13 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The Big Ten is 9 bids deep in basketball? That is showing you don't understand anything related to hoops because that would never happen.

=>I guess I don't have an understanding either. If the NCAA tournament happened today, I think the Big Ten gets 9.

OSU, MSU, IU, Wisky, Michigan, and Illinois are locks. 10th place Northwestern (RPI #37) is pretty close to a lock and has 3-7 record vs. top 50. That is 7 right there.

#49 Minnesota (3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. top 100, beat IU on road) and #64 Purdue (5 top 50 wins, 2 of them on the road & 1 on neutral court) would probably get in because of league record in the #1 ranked conference despite not having a perfect RPI ranking.

Problem with the Big Ten is, teams in 5th through 10th place have league records that range from 6-6 to 4-6 in league right now. Other than Iowa, who gets left out?

(02-06-2012 11:20 AM)zipsfan Wrote:  The only way a MAC team is getting an at large bid is a top 30 rpi. Akron is the only team that could accomplish that right now. There is no way Ohio, Kent or Buffalo are getting in even with everything going right for them.

The odds of Akron running the table and getting a top 30 rpi are slim. I would put in under 5% chance of that happening. I think the MAC is capable of consistently putting teams on the wrong side of the bubble. Every year it seems like we might get a second bid but it is just outside of reach.

=>I think if Akron goes 15-1 in the MAC and wins the BracketBuster at Oral Roberts, I am pretty confident that Akron goes even if it loses the MAC semifinal games. Akron would enter the MAC tournament with a 24-7 record, be 2-2 vs. the current RPI top 50, 8-6 vs. the current RPI top 100, and have a 10-5 record on the road (10-6 if count neutral game). Akron's worst loss would be on the road at current #106 Valpo.

RPI would be in the 30s.

That said, I cannot see Akron winning all four games on the road vs. WMU, ORU, Ohio, and Kent. It just isn't gonna happen. But if it does, Akron is in

(02-06-2012 11:47 AM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The at-large line is 56. MAC schools in the 90's made it into the at-large field with RPI's that low.

=>MAC At-Large History since 1994:

At-Large Bids Given:
1995: #54 Miami (lost in MAC semis to BSU, overall MAC Champs)
1998: #58 WMU (lost at home in MAC quarters to Miami, overall and West Co-Champs with BSU)
1999: #21 Miami (lost in MAC finals to Kent, overall and East Champs)

Left Out With A #56 or Better RPI
1995: #43 Ohio (Gary Trent's last year, won Preseason NIT, lost to EMU in MAC semis, MAC 2nd place)
2000: #56 BGSU (lost to Miami in MAC quarters, overall and East Champs), #36 Kent (lost to Ohio in MAC quarters, 2nd place overall)
2005: #39 Miami (lost to Ohio in MAC semis, overall and East Champs), #46 Buffalo (lost to Ohio in MAC finals, 2nd place overall with 5 other teams)
2010: #47 Kent (lost Ohio in MAC quarters, overall and East Champs)

What was Toledo's RPI in the 1998-1999 season? I remember Dick Vitale pleading his case for the Rockets with their wins over tOSU & XU!!!

=>Toledo's RPI was 62. UT's DI record was 16-8 (may have had some non-DI wins as well). Toledo was MAC West Champs at 11-7, but was 6th overall (Miami was 15-3, Kent 13-5, and Akron/Ohio/BG were all 12-6). Toledo was 4-1 vs. NCAA teams that year (beat GMU, OSU, Kent, & Miami and lost to Miami).

(02-06-2012 01:43 PM)mollautt Wrote:  

(02-06-2012 01:30 PM)barndog Wrote:  Though unlikely, it's possible. If the 8 teams currently projected as locks or bubble teams all receive at-large bids and the conference tourney winner is one of the bottom-feeders (Northwestern, Iowa, etc.) not on the bubble, then the Big 10 would have 9 teams in. I doubt it will happen, but it's not that far-fetched.

=>At #37, Northwestern is not only on the bubble, but is on the good side of it right now. NU's remaining schedule is favorable as well. If NU wins 4 of these 8 games to go 18-12/8-10, they are probably needing only a 1st round Big Ten tourney win to clinch a spot in the NCAA tournament at 19-13. Northwestern's SOS is #9 in the country.

Feb 9 124 13-11 * Iowa
Feb 12 64 15-8 * @ Purdue
Feb 15 18 18-6 * @ Indiana
Feb 18 49 17-7 * Minnesota
Feb 21 15 16-7 * Michigan
Feb 25 144 10-14 * @ Penn State
Feb 29 4 20-3 * Ohio State
Mar 3 124 13-11 * @ Iowa

True. (My post was based solely off the current bubble projections from the prior week that didn't have NW on the bubble.) Funny how NW is on the bubble while at the same time being close to last place in the Big 10.

After tonight's game I think we can nix the idea of OU getting an at-large bid. LOL

(02-08-2012 09:42 PM)utpotts Wrote:  After tonight's game I think we can nix the idea of OU getting an at-large bid. LOL

Ohio is too soft under Groce. Until he recruits a Gary Trent, Brandon Hunter or Leon Williams to get those rebounds and police the paint the Bobcats will never win a MAC regular season title. We got up 19 f-ing offensive rebounds tonite. Gary Trent, B-Hunt and EL-Dubs would never let that happen on their watch. If Ohio had someone like McCrae at UB then Ohio would be a title contender. Were just a typical 4-6 seed team that lacks the toughness. Ohio is soft and playing scared. Cooper has no clue of what he is doing. 33% shooter from the field. That is not all-SWAC let alone all-mac.

(02-08-2012 10:47 PM)OhioBobcatJohn Wrote:  Ohio is too soft under Groce. Until he recruits a Gary Trent, Brandon Hunter or Leon Williams to get those rebounds and police the paint the Bobcats will never win a MAC regular season title. We got up 19 f-ing offensive rebounds tonite. Gary Trent, B-Hunt and EL-Dubs would never let that happen on their watch. If Ohio had someone like McCrae at UB then Ohio would be a title contender. Were just a typical 4-6 seed team that lacks the toughness. Ohio is soft and playing scared. Cooper has no clue of what he is doing. 33% shooter from the field. That is not all-SWAC let alone all-mac.

I just posted similar statement on our board-Buffalo bigs were very physical-OU's wanted to finesse everything and we dominated the boards. Cooper must be very frustrating to watch- when he wants to he can elevate his game in a heartbeat but he just as quickly throws a no-look pass into the seats, forces a ball into the post to be stolen or hoists an ill-advised shot. clearly he is very talented but his effort and decision making seem to be suspect.

(02-08-2012 10:47 PM)OhioBobcatJohn Wrote:  Ohio is too soft under Groce. Until he recruits a Gary Trent, Brandon Hunter or Leon Williams to get those rebounds and police the paint the Bobcats will never win a MAC regular season title. We got up 19 f-ing offensive rebounds tonite. Gary Trent, B-Hunt and EL-Dubs would never let that happen on their watch. If Ohio had someone like McCrae at UB then Ohio would be a title contender. Were just a typical 4-6 seed team that lacks the toughness. Ohio is soft and playing scared. Cooper has no clue of what he is doing. 33% shooter from the field. That is not all-SWAC let alone all-mac.

we hear from the (delusional) peanut gallery yet again.

(02-09-2012 10:05 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:47 PM)OhioBobcatJohn Wrote:  Ohio is too soft under Groce. Until he recruits a Gary Trent, Brandon Hunter or Leon Williams to get those rebounds and police the paint the Bobcats will never win a MAC regular season title. We got up 19 f-ing offensive rebounds tonite. Gary Trent, B-Hunt and EL-Dubs would never let that happen on their watch. If Ohio had someone like McCrae at UB then Ohio would be a title contender. Were just a typical 4-6 seed team that lacks the toughness. Ohio is soft and playing scared. Cooper has no clue of what he is doing. 33% shooter from the field. That is not all-SWAC let alone all-mac.

we hear from the (delusional) peanut gallery yet again.

Groce said the same thing- anytime you talk about your tough guys and use the term "quote-unquote tough guys" you're making a strong statement. OU had huge mismatches with anyone guarded by Reese Holliday but none of them were exploited- Holliday is listed at 6'4", more like a tall 6'2". He looked positively Lilliputian out there but Baltic and others weren't posting hard on him.

(02-09-2012 10:05 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:47 PM)OhioBobcatJohn Wrote:  Ohio is too soft under Groce. Until he recruits a Gary Trent, Brandon Hunter or Leon Williams to get those rebounds and police the paint the Bobcats will never win a MAC regular season title. We got up 19 f-ing offensive rebounds tonite. Gary Trent, B-Hunt and EL-Dubs would never let that happen on their watch. If Ohio had someone like McCrae at UB then Ohio would be a title contender. Were just a typical 4-6 seed team that lacks the toughness. Ohio is soft and playing scared. Cooper has no clue of what he is doing. 33% shooter from the field. That is not all-SWAC let alone all-mac.

we hear from the (delusional) peanut gallery yet again.

=>Not to disagree with John's premise necessarily, but Brandon Hunter and Leon Hunter never won a MAC regular season title. Williams only won a MAC tournament which is the bigger prize, but less of an accomplishment.

Trent did win one MAC regular season title as a sophomore, but Miami finished 1st in his frosh year in 1993 (co-Champs with BSU) and his junior year of 1995. Trent then said he gave up taking on Miami and ran away to the NBA instead of coming back in 1996. ;-)