Monday, February 7, 2005
Some movement in Top 25 for '05
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By Pat Forde
ESPN.com
Since we last left you with the Gatorade still soaking on Pete Carroll's shirt, players have come (thanks to Signing Day) and gone (thanks to early departures to the NFL). How has it affected the Top 25 for 2005? Here's the latest look.
1. USC Trojans
Why: The Trojans were the landslide choice a month ago -- and that was before Matt Leinart stunned everyone by announcing he's staying on campus. Now it's simply not a fair fight for the rest of the nation.
Why not: The only reasons to bet against USC are the fact that nobody has won three straight wire-service national titles, and offensive mastermind Norm Chow might bolt for the NFL.
2. Texas Longhorns
Why: Vince Young will be back behind a veteran offensive line, and we all know how well the Longhorns have recruited in recent years.
Why not: Losing star linebacker Derrick Johnson and running back Cedric Benson will hurt, and Oklahoma is still on the schedule.
3. Michigan Wolverines
Why: Chad Henne, Michael Hart and Steve Breaston make a pretty awesome skill-position trio to build around.
Why not: Wide receiver Braylon Edwards made Henne look good on many occasions, and the Wolverines face a major rebuilding job in the secondary.
4. Tennessee Vols
Why: Three proven quarterbacks return, plus plenty of additional experience after all the possible early-entry candidates decided to stay. And for once, the Volunteers have post-bowl momentum.
Why not: In their last four SEC games of 2004, the Vols gave up an average of 32.8 points and 467 yards offense. That needs to improve before facing Urban Meyer, Mark Richt, Steve Spurrier, et.al. in '05.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Why: Almost the entire offense is back, and Kirk Ferentz has firmly established himself as one of the nation's elite coaches.
Why not: The Hawkeyes must do some rebuilding on the defensive front seven.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
Why: No team in America has a better building block than Adrian Peterson, and recruiting never slows down in Norman.
Why not: New quarterback. Rebuilt offensive line. Key losses on defense. And did the Sooners lose some of their aura during that mugging in Miami?
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why: Ted Ginn seems like a wonderful place to start, and there's plenty more returning talent to surround him.
Why not: An NCAA investigation could turn into a mushroom cloud over Columbus. Buckeyes fans have done their best to minimize the potential repercussions, but that might be whistling past the gridiron graveyard.
8. Louisville Cardinals
Why: Bobby Petrino stuck around to play mad scientist with dazzling talents like quarterback Brian Brohm and running back Michael Bush.
Why not: Even with all the players coming back, it's never easy to replace a great quarterback (Stefan LeFors), your top rusher (Eric Shelton) and top receiver (J.R. Russell).
9. Florida Gators
Why: Take Chris Leak and the rest of Ron Zook's high-caliber recruits, give them some improved coaching from Urban Meyer, and look out.
Why not: These guys don't know what it takes to win at the highest level. How quickly can they learn that vital quality?
10. Miami Hurricanes
Why: Something tells us the Hurricanes will be better without Brock Berlin. And the defense should again be nasty.
Why not: Larry Coker needs to rekindle a Miami offense that seemed short on playmakers at times this year.
11. LSU Tigers
Why: This team is littered with prep All-Americans, many of whom got valuable experience in a "rebuilding" 9-3 season. And signing prep superstud Ryan Perrilloux only makes the quarterback position that much more intriguing.
Why not: After losing Nick Saban, it's hard not to think LSU settled for Les with Miles.
12. Florida State Seminoles
Why: It's not like losing Chris Rix is going to hurt. A very good defense in '04 should be sensational in '05.
Why not: Key losses on the offensive line and in the secondary, and you have to wonder whether the talent level has taken an appreciable dip from the halcyon days in Tallahassee. (A good '05 recruiting class might help some, but it's dangerous to count on too many true freshmen.)
13. Virginia Tech Hokies
Why: Because Frank Beamer really doesn't have bad years, and because this year's 10-3 team was built around its junior class.
Why not: Losing quarterback Brian Randall could prove a bigger blow than anyone could have imagined at this time last year. Time for Marcus Vick to live up to his surname.
14. Texas A&M Aggies
Why: Dennis Franchione took a step forward in Year Two in College Station. Look for a leap in Year Three.
Why not: Have to be concerned by how the Aggies finished the season, losing four out of five -- including a loss to Baylor and a 31-point shellacking in the Cotton Bowl from underdog Tennessee.
15. Boise State Broncos
Why: Dan Hawkins' program has a ton of momentum going right now, and brings back a lot of talent. Many people in Boise thought all along that '05 would be the Broncos' best team.
Why not: The offensive and defensive lines were exposed by the superior size and speed of Louisville in the Liberty Bowl.
16. Georgia Bulldogs
Why: Mark Richt's program is just about on autopilot, continually sustaining itself with excellent recruiting and good coaching.
Why not: Even a top-flight program will struggle after losing four-year quarterback David Greene, defensive end David Pollack, most of the receiving corps and a couple other defensive stars through early entry.
17. Fresno State Bulldogs
Why: Just about everybody of consequence is back from a team that won its last six games, including an upset of Virginia in the Micron PC Bowl. And next season, WAC heavy Boise State must come to Fresno.
Why not: Somebody unexpected always seems to jump up and get Pat Hill's team somewhere along the line.
18. Auburn Tigers
Why: Tigers should be very good up front on both sides of the ball, and bring back a posse of quality receivers. If Al Borges can do half the work with Brandon Cox that he did with Jason Campbell, they'll move the ball productively again in '05.
Why not: No team could lose quarterback Campbell, running backs Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown and defensive backs Carlos Rogers and Junior Rosegreen without some serious slippage.
19. Arizona State Sun Devils
Why: The only major offensive loss is star quarterback Andrew Walter, and his backup, Sam Keller, played great in the Sun Bowl upset of Purdue.
Why not: The defense will have to be largely rebuilt -- and it was shaky at times anyway.
20. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Why: Mike Leach will plug in another 4,000-yard quarterback and drive defensive coordinators crazy.
Why not: The Red Raiders still have to compete with Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M in the murderous Big 12 South.
21. Bowling Green Falcons
Why: Omar Jacobs might be the top returning quarterback in the country, non-Matt Leinart Division. Coach Gregg Brandon deserves to see his name on future hot lists.
Why not: Some key senior personnel on both sides of the ball must be replaced.
22. California Bears
Why: I erred in not including the Golden Bears in January. Despite losing superior talents Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Arrington, coach Jeff Tedford has this program on such solid ground that it will not slip entirely off the map.
Why not: Better do something to upgrade a defense that was undressed by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl.
23. Pittsburgh Panthers
Why: Resourceful quarterback Tyler Palko leads a strong cast of returning players.
Why not: Does Dave Wannstedt know what he's doing on the college level? For that matter, did he know what he was doing on the pro level?
24. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Why: Plenty of players back from the Champs Sports Bowl champions, including almost the entire defense.
Why not: In three years under Chan Gailey, Tech has not been able to push past "decent" and into "good."
25. Iowa State Cyclones
Why: Quarterback Brett Meyer and wide receiver Todd Blythe, both sophomores, will be one of the top tandems in the country. Playing in the Big 12 North will help the Cyclones' record.
Why not: We'll see how this program performs with a bullseye (admittedly, a small bullseye) on its back.
Another Dozen To Watch
Alabama, Boston College, Colorado, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oregon, Purdue, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
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Updated ESPN Preseason Football Top 25
